The United Nations’ envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, has arrived in the country for first time since the tumultuous 11-day overthrow of former president Bashar al-Assad’s regime by opposition groups led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Speaking exclusively to Al Majalla before he set off, Pedersen said he would engage with HTS despite it being labelled as a terrorist organisation across much of the Western world, saying: “The UN’s mission is to engage with all parties, including HTS.”
Ahead of this important diplomatic initiative, the experienced Norwegian diplomat, 69, elaborated on efforts already underway and confirmed that the UN was “working with” an interim Syrian government, adding that “over the next three months, our objective is to collaborate with Syrian stakeholders to lay the groundwork for transitional arrangements”.
This is a crucial juncture for Syria and the Middle East, and Pedersen did not shy away from the elephant in the room. “If HTS fulfils its stated intentions, specifically by advancing an inclusive process that incorporates all Syrian communities and factions, then perhaps the time has come to reassess its (terror) designation,” he said.
Made ahead of a meeting in Jordan with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, foreign ministers from the Arab Contact Group, and several Arab nations, Pedersen’s comments will reverberate throughout the world’s capitals, with ministers in several states now urgently re-evaluating. The diplomat was an architect of the Oslo Accords and had a major role in southern Lebanon around the time of the last big war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, so his words carry weight.
Caught off-guard
At the meeting in Jordan, the ministers backed Pedersen’s role, urged the UN Secretary-General to give him all necessary resources, and called for a UN Assistance Mission for Syria to support the political transition process in-line with UN Security Council Resolution 2254.
Pedersen reiterated the foundational tenets outlined in UNSCR 2254. “There are two core principles enshrined in the international framework,” he said. “First, the political transition in Syria must be led by the Syrian people themselves. Second, the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of Syria must be upheld.”
When asked about the swift collapse of Assad’s regime, Pedersen admitted that everyone had been caught off guard. Asked whether there had been an organised arrangement to depose Assad, he said: “If such a deal existed, I was not informed. I would find it highly surprising if there were... Everyone was taken aback.”
Speaking to Al Majalla in Pedersen’s office in Geneva, he said: “We were all surprised. I think the Syrians were surprised. I even believe the armed groups that are now in Damascus and the de facto political leaders were surprised by the speed with which this happened, less than 14 days from Aleppo to Hama, Homs, and then Damascus. No-one foresaw that the Syrian army would collapse the way it did, with no real interventions from Russia or Iran.”
Pedersen had been in Doha and Astana holding meetings with Russian, Iranian, Turkish, and Arab representatives in the run-up to the Assad regime’s overthrow. “There were very little indications that there had been a deal before this offensive started,” he said. “The Russians were surprised, in particular, when they saw the Syrian army not putting up a fight. The Iranians were also surprised by this.”
By Saturday, Pedersen said “there was a sort of realisation that it was coming to an end... It was the speed of the military actions from the armed groups that basically ended the story. That is my reading of the situation.”
Refusing to engage
The diplomat suggested that deep, years-long dissatisfaction with the Assad regime helped hasten its demise. “The Syrian people had been promised that this conflict was over,” he said. “We’ve been saying all along, it’s not. What contributed even more to that was the economic collapse, the fact that the society really was at the edge before this offensive started.
“There were hopes that normalisation with the Arab states would bring something positive and new, but what actually happened was the economic situation got worse, and Assad did not engage, either with what the Arabs asked, or with the Turks, or with me.”
The UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy to Syria for almost six years, Pedersen never met Assad because the Syrian president refused. “They didn’t understand that the future of the Syrian people could have been decided by political means, not by a military offensive”.
The UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, in an exclusive interview with #AlMajalla conducted by the magazine's Editor-in-Chief, Ibrahim Hamidi: "The United Nations' mission is to engage with all parties, including (HTS)."@ibrahimhamidi@GeirOPedersen#AlMajalla_Interviews pic.twitter.com/54M8Cw4lBc
— Al Majalla (@AlMajallaEN) December 14, 2024