Largely forgotten by history, leaders in Beirut and Tel Aviv shook hands on a plan for normal bilateral relations 43 years ago, after yet another Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon.

The initiative runs alongside an agreed budget and political discussions on power-sharing facilitated by an American envoy, but Washington is concerned about the presence of foreign fighters

The first priority is Trump's image, not national interests.

Building on the ten-day ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump, time will tell if these talks are a one-off or the beginning of a different path for Lebanon.

Fighters have been sent to the porous Syria-Lebanon border area from both sides in recent weeks, with far more at stake than smuggling rackets.

While historic, talks are incomplete and structurally fragile. The central paradox is this: the Lebanese government is at the table. Hezbollah is not.

Given concerns about Hezbollah backlash, Beirut will likely want to proceed incrementally toward its stated goal of establishing a state monopoly on weapons

Washington is reordering its priorities as part of a broader strategic shift across the Middle East, and eyes a possible alliance with Damascus as a next step

While all the effects of this conflict may take time to fully realise, short and medium-term signs expose the limits of US power and see America's rivals benefiting

Iran's deep ties with key countries are enough to set off US anxiety and influence strategic calculations, but not enough to constitute a decisive second front in times of war