Trump’s Brotherhood ban means it has to shapeshift to survive

The US President has caught up with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan by proscribing some chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist entities. What comes next?

Picture for illustrative purposes only. A Muslim takes part in Eid-al-Fitr prayer marking the end of their holy fasting month of Ramadan, at a mosque in Silver Spring, Maryland, on 19 August, 2012.
JEWEL SAMAD / AFP
Picture for illustrative purposes only. A Muslim takes part in Eid-al-Fitr prayer marking the end of their holy fasting month of Ramadan, at a mosque in Silver Spring, Maryland, on 19 August, 2012.

Trump’s Brotherhood ban means it has to shapeshift to survive

The Executive Order signed by US President Donald Trump on 24 November designating specific chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as foreign terrorist organisations is not just a punitive bureaucratic measure, nor is it a narrow political reaction detached from international trends. Rather, it marks a pivotal historical moment that signals the erosion of a US foreign policy ‘grey-zone’.

Trump’s edict marks a rupture with the traditional American approach that has long sought to separate ideological discourse from material violence. Redefining its relationship with political Islam, the US has effectively declared that the discursive duality long embedded in the Brotherhood’s literature—projecting a language of rights and democracy to Western audiences while internalising the concept of Hakimiyyah (divine sovereignty)—is no longer acceptable within US national security calculations.

Founded in Egypt in 1928, the Brotherhood has long relied on ‘Caliphate nostalgia’ as an emotional driver and placed a risky wager on US elections. But the group now faces a dilemma: whether to return to underground operations. Its terrorist designation in the US changes the landscape; the Brotherhood now faces existential questions over its leadership, structure, and alliances. This may compel a radical overhaul, which may include a return to the clandestine operations that marked its early years.

Shifts in perception

For the Brotherhood, ‘going underground’ in the US would be epochal. To see why, it helps to understand how the group came to operate in the West for decades, when it benefited from the ‘grey zone.’ In this cognitive vacuum within Western institutions regarding the nature of political Islam, the Brotherhood presented itself as a moderate bulwark against jihadist Salafist groups such as Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS).

The prevailing view was that engaging movements that adopted political action—even when grounded in conservative religious references—was better than trying to dry up the sources of radical violence. This thesis guided Western decision-making for years, treating political Islam as a functional partner. The Trump administration has now dismantled that premise.

Reuters
The Islamic Society of America mosque in Dearborn, Michigan, USA, on 4 February 2024.

The intelligence underpinning the new measures reflects growing concerns within US security circles about any intellectual and perhaps even organisational links between the Brotherhood, its ideology, and violent groups. Rather than seeing the Brotherhood as an alternative to extremism, it is now increasingly seen as an ‘incubator’, facilitating the transition from traditional religiosity to radical ideas such as Al-Wala’ wal-Bara’ (Loyalty and Disavowal).

For years, political Islam relied on American institutional protection against terrorist designation, whether that was through PR networks or links to political parties. Trump's move has exposed the flaws in these calculations, as the Brotherhood failed to grasp the shifts in public sentiment. No longer granted immunity, political Islam is seen not only as a security threat, but as a challenge to liberal values and social cohesion.

From a narrow counter-terrorism file, it therefore becomes a broader debate about identity protection and constitutional principles. However, the designation cannot be understood in isolation from the febrile US socio-political climate, within which there is a discernible increase in populism and hostility toward immigrants. In this context, the Brotherhood can claim that its targeting is part of a broader collective punishment of Islam. Such a narrative, which fuses security policy with identity politics, may find resonance among segments of the Muslim community, thereby complicating efforts to isolate the group.

The terrorist label forces existential questions over Brotherhood leadership, structure, and alliances

Defensive dynamics

The Muslim Brotherhood was already banned in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but in April of this year, Jordan also proscribed the group, while a month later, in May, French President Emmanuel Macron order his ministers to draw up proposals to counter the group's influence in the country. In both France and Jordan, therefore, there were already signs that the Brotherhood would slip back into the shadows.

Trump's designation makes that move into secrecy all the more likely, if it is to survive. Historically, when totalitarian ideological movements face existential danger, they activate defensive mechanisms designed to preserve internal cohesion. The Brotherhood may now adopt adaptive strategies that revive the 'Jurisprudence of Ordeal' (Fiqh al-Mihna), a medieval belief system in which an accused person's guilt or innocence was determined by their ability to survive or remain unharmed during a dangerous or painful physical test.

What could it do? There could be a kind of structural contraction, in which large public-facing entities splinter into smaller cells or closed usar (families) to minimise risk of exposure. Its methods of financing may also shift to fields in which transactions are more difficult to trace, such as cryptocurrency. In terms of personnel, headcount at the leadership level and below may be reduced to the more hardcore ideological loyalists.

The Brotherhood's discourse has long relied on transnational concepts and a selective, nostalgic invocation of the Caliphate. This narrative, which ignores nation-state borders in favour of religious solidarity, once seemed at home within Western multiculturalism. Today, following proscription, there is a new legal reality. This effectively transforms rhetoric about 'abolishing borders' or 'infidel regimes' (Takfiri) from opinion to evidence.

This identity crisis manifests in ideological fluidity: a desperate, sometimes contradictory search for political allies that oppose the Republican establishment. A stark example is the enthusiastic celebration within Brotherhood circles of Zohran Mamdani's victory in the race to be Mayor of New York, even though his Shiite background and socialist politics stand in stark contrast to conservative Islamist principles. This flexibility signals the Brotherhood's struggle to navigate shifting political landscapes while trying to maintain cohesion amid mounting legal and societal pressures.

Jim WATSON / AFP
US President Donald Trump (R) meets with New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on 21 November 2025.

Convergence of visions

Trump's declaration that the chapters of the Brotherhood are terrorist entities means that the view in Washington is now closer to the view in many Middle Eastern capitals. Whereas Washington focused primarily on direct violence, allies like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates argued that the US should target the intellectual incubators that spawn such violence.

The Executive Order of 24 November 2025 bridges that gap, implicitly recognising that dismantling terrorism means dismantling its ideological underpinnings, not just its fighting units. This will inevitably tighten the noose around the Muslim Brotherhood across the world. As it approaches its centenary year, Trump's designation will restrict its leadership's mobility and cripple its cross-border coordination.

There may be some security repercussions, including reaction, frustration, and violence from young ideological adherents influenced by the radical literature of Sayyid Qutb, an Egyptian scholar and leading member of the Brotherhood, and Abul A'la Maududi, the founder of Pakistan's Jamaat-e-Islami. Both men advocated in favour of Islamic states and systems of government based on Sharia law.

While dangerous, Western decision-makers may see these fragmented 'lone wolf' threats as carrying a lower strategic cost in the long-run than allowing a totalitarian organisation to exploit democratic tools to undermine institutions. The terrorist designation of the Muslim Brotherhood marks the end of an era of constructive ambiguity, and helps the nation-state enforce sovereignty against cross-border ideological projects.

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