With his Syria gamble, Trump opens a door

Although he once deemed Syria unimportant, Trump now seems to realise how key it is to Arab states, whose cooperation he greatly values

Lina Jaradat

With his Syria gamble, Trump opens a door

The meeting in Riyadh of presidents Donald Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa followed the US leader's announcement that sanctions on Syria would end. These developments open the door to Syria’s stabilisation and reconstruction as a state at peace with its neighbours in partnership with Washington. Whether anyone passes through that door remains, however, an open question.

Acting on the advice of the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, President Trump decided to take a calculated risk on the Syrians who deposed Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 and who subsequently formed a government and issued a constitutional declaration. It is a risky move for at least three reasons.

First, the regime headed by al-Sharaa is composed, in large part, of people once affiliated with Al-Qaeda. Indeed, al-Sharaa himself is still officially designated a terrorist by the US. Although the new government often seems to be saying the right things about the rule of law and its opposition to terrorism, thousands of Syrians have been violently victimised by armed bands affiliated with Syria’s new leaders. If Syria’s leaders either support, ignore, or fail to suppress violent sectarianism, President Trump will reap significant criticism for taking an ill-advised chance on them.

Second, even if Syria’s new government is, as President al-Sharaa has strongly indicated, sincerely interested in citizenship-based inclusivity and firmly dedicated to protecting all Syrians from vigilantism and vengeance, it is still very far from establishing a monopoly on armed force in Syria.

Nearly all Syrians—of whom 90% were impoverished by the Assad regime’s murderous kleptocracy—want the new leaders to succeed. But most Syrians have no relationship with, much less control over, lawless men with weapons. Is anyone other than Donald Trump willing to make a sizeable bet on who will be running Syria one month or one year from now?

Third, Israel is waging a one-sided war against post-Assad Syria. Capital, as the expression goes, is a coward. American economic sanctions, which may take Congress several months to dismantle entirely, have certainly, to date, dissuaded reconstruction-related grants, loans, and investments from entering Syria.

MUHAMMAD HAJ KADOUR / AFP
A man looks out to the devastation while clearing rubble and debris from a house at the Yarmouk camp for Palestinian refugees south of Damascus on December 22, 2024.

Read more: What needs to happen to rebuild Syria

Obstacles to reconstruction

President Trump now wishes to remove that barrier. But will anyone commit significant resources to Syria’s reconstruction with Israel bombing Syria at will and occupying Syrian territory in violation of the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement? Clearly, President Trump wants Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree quickly to a renewed and open-ended Gaza ceasefire. But is he willing to confront Netanyahu over Syria as well? Will he perceive domestic political risks in doing so?

Trump has tried to mitigate all three risks by pressing al-Sharaa to expel all terrorists from Syria, to help the US defeat the Islamic State (IS) (including by taking over IS-related detention centres), and to make peace with Israel by joining the Abraham Accords. Al-Sharaaa may well have ways and means at his disposal to accomplish some of these objectives. But making peace with Israel will, in the first instance, require Israel to stop attacking Syria.

Its official explanation for waging war centres on what is described as a lesson learned from Hamas's October 7, 2023, attack on Israel: whenever an Islamist group espousing violence manifests itself on Israel’s borders, strike preemptively and decisively.

However, other, non-official explanations centre on the alleged desire of Netanyahu to preserve, at all costs, his status as Israel’s wartime leader. This explanation suggests that he is trying to avoid being held accountable for what happened on October 7 by arguing that Israel, at war, cannot spare the time to examine the event in detail and adjudicate official responsibility.

While removing sanctions could help bring in funds for reconstruction, it remains unclear if anyone will commit significant resources if Israel continues bombing Syria at will

Netanyahu on a different page

If forced to cease hostilities in Gaza, Netanyahu, according to this explanation, can point to Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and even Iran as places where Israel is obliged to apply military force. Israel has also claimed the right to defend Syrian Druze from alleged persecution by Syria's new government.

Regardless of the explanation, it seems that Israel—unlike the US—has entirely discounted the erasure of threats posed to its security by Iran and Hezbollah when al-Assad was deposed and fled into exile. After all, Iran and its Lebanese proxy tried hard to open a second anti-Israel front in Syria. Israel's government should have welcomed their failure. Yet not only did it decide against reaching out to Syria's post-Assad leaders, but it condemned—often publicly—the role of Türkiye in supporting those who ousted al-Assad.

Türkiye is, of course, a NATO ally of the US, and its president enjoys a good relationship with his American counterpart. No doubt, Erdogan and Trump agree that the defeat of Iran in Syria should be celebrated and sealed, and that the new government in Damascus should be given every opportunity to succeed. Israel's Netanyahu appears to be on another page entirely.

 OZAN KOSE / AFP
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and Syria's interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands during a joint press conference following their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, on February 4, 2025.

Track II talks

Confirmed reports of Syria-Israel Track II (unofficial) talks taking place in the United Arab Emirates may well provide grounds for optimism. Progress, however, would depend on the true motive behind Israel's war-making.

If genuine security concerns and Druze-related humanitarianism account in full for Israel's actions, Track II discussions can produce practical, constructive ideas leading to official talks. Goals could include restoring in full the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement, negotiating a bilateral armistice/non-belligerency agreement, and moving ultimately toward full normalisation and peace.

None of this would require Syria to give up its claim to territories lost during the June 1967 War. But the crying need for reconstruction—both economic and political—in a country utterly gutted and looted by Assad and his entourage should dispose Syria's new leaders toward renouncing warfare in the pursuit of their claims. This approach will require Israel's full cooperation. If, however, Israel's motive is tied solely to the political survival of its prime minister, Israel will need a new government if it wishes to attract Syria to the prospect of eventual normalisation.

The risks associated with President Trump's opening to Syria will only be magnified if his sanctions statement and his meeting with President al-Sharaa turn out to be empty gestures. Domestically, the administration must press Congress to dismantle those sanctions over which it has authority.

Internationally, the administration must press partners who urged this opening to monitor the performance of Syria's new government and to provide whatever assistance it needs to defeat terror and deter vigilantism. And the administration must press Israel to respect the terms of the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement. Finally, the posting of a senior American diplomat to Damascus to build relationships, influence decisions, and report back is long overdue.

Bandar AL-JALOUD / Saudi Royal Palace
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (R) watching as US President Donald Trump (C) shakes hands with Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Riyadh on May 14, 2025.

President Trump has opened a door. Will anyone pass through? Much depends on his willingness to remain engaged. Although he once deemed Syria unimportant, Trump now seems to realise how key it is to Arab states, whose cooperation he greatly values. Ideally, he and his national security team will keep the door open to a prosperous Syria, one at peace with its neighbours and fully in sync with Washington in the region and beyond.

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