Building on the ten-day ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump, time will tell if these talks are a one-off or the beginning of a different path for Lebanon.
Given concerns about Hezbollah backlash, Beirut will likely want to proceed incrementally toward its stated goal of establishing a state monopoly on weapons
Tehran says any negotiated settlement to the US-Iran war must include its Hezbollah allies, but this could take a long time—a luxury Lebanon may not have.
Even as the bombs fly between Hezbollah and the Israeli army, there is suddenly an opportunity to sort out some longstanding problems. If Syria can help, all the better.
Attacks by Hezbollah and an Iraqi militia appear to be a calculated step by Tehran to widen the arena of conflict in a bid to raise the costs for its adversaries
Legislation to fund the American military and intelligence services will include requirements that Israeli defence firms be involved in sensitive projects and that classified information be shared
Even if diplomatic progress continues, the Strait could be closed again. As a result, the geopolitical risk premium attached to Gulf energy exports is unlikely to disappear entirely.