Almost a year ago, when Nawaf Salam was elected President of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), a close friend predicted that it would herald his return to Lebanon as prime minister. That has come to pass. Earlier this month, Lebanon’s new president, Joseph Aoun, summoned Salam to designate him PM—an honour he accepted.
In the 1990s, after the Madrid Conference (that aimed to find a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict), politics was not what Salam had in mind, telling a friend that he planned to establish a prominent, US-style law firm in Beirut, anticipating big regional changes. It never transpired. Those regional changes were not as the optimists had hoped.
Today, peace between the Palestinians and Israelis—an issue close to Salam’s heart—seems further away than ever. The ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza is not a political resolution, nor does it clear the path to one. Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria have both been wracked by war in recent months. All three are connected.
Shifting dynamics
Iranian influence in Lebanon and Syria—alongside its support to Hamas through proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah—meant that the Palestinian cause became entangled in regional power dynamics. This let Israel justify intensified aggression against Palestinian groups, framing them as extensions of the Iran-led ‘resistance’.
Israel’s recent military involvement in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran disrupted the established power dynamics and introduced a new reality. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and Hezbollah’s acquiescence to a punitive ceasefire deal (requiring it to pull back to the Litani River) were emblematic of the shift.
In effect, the longstanding connection between Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine was dismantled. As a result, genuine political independence could emerge in all three arenas, forming the basis for a new and peaceful political trajectory in each.
Genuine change would likely require change in Israel, which opposed Salam’s election as president of the ICJ, given his previous criticism of Israeli actions, not least in Gaza. Elected just months after Israel launched its war of relentless brutality against the Strip, he was an obvious target for Israel’s flag-waving media. The Jerusalem Post called him an “anti-Israel judge”. Yedioth Aharonot said his election was “disturbing”.
Multi-dimensional identity
Supporters say that with his background in human rights, politics, and nationalism, Salam is uniquely equipped to navigate, engage with, and leverage these regional shifts. This may explain the backlash Salam faced in the Israeli press.
His friends describe the Beirut-born judge as “deeply rooted in his Arab identity while remaining open to the West”. These different dimensions—Lebanese, Arab, open to the West—shape both his identity, his approach, and his exceptionalism.
He has now been tasked with heading the next Lebanese government, a moment he has long awaited, according to a close friend. In this task, he will need to call on all his diplomatic and professional attributes to navigate a much-changed region still adjusting to the much-changed dynamics.
His return to Lebanese politics is itself a product of these changes. Among his priorities will be bringing Lebanon out of its regional political isolation. Given the country's significant political and economic problems, outside help will be needed.
Putting Lebanon first
Fostering a new paradigm in Lebanon hinges on redefining its relations with both its near neighbours and the broader region, considering ongoing transformations. Doing so will be critical to the success or failure of Lebanon's much-needed reforms.
In the later part of the 20th century, Lebanon hosted the Palestinian resistance. In the early 21st century, it was the primary battleground between Israel and Iran. In between, it has been made to bow at the feet of Syria. Throughout it all, Lebanon has paid a high price. For once, Salam and Aoun need to put Lebanon first.
Read more: With Aoun and Salam, Lebanese can now dare to dream
Revitalising the country's politics—rendered sclerotic by entrenched interests—requires a fresh perspective, not just on the Palestinian issue but on the geopolitical realities of the Middle East in 2025. Together with Syria's recent riddance of Assad-family rule, this could mark the beginning of a new chapter.
For decades, Lebanon has suffered bloodshed, strife, and collapse. For many in Lebanon, Hezbollah is responsible for much of this. It was interesting, then, that the Iran-backed group reacted negatively to Salam's appointment despite his promises of inclusivity—a clear gesture aimed at assuring Hezbollah.
Delicately reformist
Being able to navigate internal sensitivities, balance competing interests, and mediate conflicts among Lebanon's diverse factions is one thing. Being able to do so while also making reforms is quite another. Yet many have faith in his ability to do so.
If he succeeds, his knowledge of Lebanon's political conflicts—about which he has studied and written extensively—will surely be of assistance. His first dissertation, titled The 1958 Rebellion in Lebanon, covered a campaign in which his uncle, Saeb Salam—the prominent Beirut leader and four-time Lebanese prime minister from 1952-73—played a central role, opposing then-President Camille Chamoun.
Cited as the first of many examples of foreign meddling in Lebanon, Chamoun supported the US-backed Baghdad Pact, while Saeb Salam aligned with Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser and his pan-Arab vision.
