The world breathed a sigh of relief when US President Donald Trump extended the two-week Iran-US ceasefire, despite no peace agreement having been reached. With his approval ratings low and the mid-term elections fast approaching, he accepted the ‘off-ramp’ presented by Pakistan, extending the ceasefire indefinitely.
To save face, Trump claimed that the Iranian government was “seriously fractured” after the bombing and needed time to reach a consensus among themselves before talks could resume. Upon closer examination, however, Trump’s claim does not hold water. Even after the 12-Day War in 2025—when the US and Israel used talks to deceive Iran into lowering its guard before attacking—Iran remained divided between hardliners and moderates.
This changed after the US-Israeli war on Iran this year, during which more than 40 high-ranking Iranian officials were killed. Many of these officials, like Ali Larijani, had lived through the deadly Iran-Iraq War, which killed over half a million people, so they were more willing to compromise to avoid bloodshed. Their deaths have paved a path to power for hardliners unwilling to compromise and have hardened their resolve.
Iran’s hardliners
Despite their desire for revenge, decision-makers in Tehran are not blinded by hate; they are realistic about Iran’s strengths and weaknesses. A strength is that Iran is now more unified than ever, rallying around a triple rejection: no to war, no to peace, and no to talks.
They reject war because the odds are stacked against them, yet they are also against peace because, in the absence of external existential threats, domestic unrest would once again threaten the Iranian government. Finally, they are cynical about talks with the Americans because Trump demands at the negotiating table what he cannot secure by victory on the battlefield.
Trump now faces a dilemma. Resuming the war would lead Iran to respond in kind, attacking Washington’s Gulf allies’ key energy infrastructure sites, but maintaining the status quo would mean Iran maintains control over the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway. Although Trump would deny it, this would signal to the world that the US was unable to protect its allies or their interests.
Iran and the US are therefore stuck in limbo, leading analysts to wonder whether China has in fact emerged as an unlikely winner of the war, without it having had to fire a single shot. Yet while China was well prepared to weather the economic fallout of the war, it has not escaped unscathed. The interconnectedness of the global economy means that a single Iranian drone over Saudi Arabia could send oil prices soaring in China.
