Almost no one would shed a tear if Iran’s theocratic, autocratic regime were to fall following the nationwide January 2026 protests, but most are uneasy at the thought of foreign military intervention to force that result, and few think there is a clear, popular alternative if the ayatollahs’ edifice were to topple.
There has been a sense of déjà vu to the glimpsed footage of mass demonstrations to have emerged from the Islamic Republic in recent days, smuggled out after Iranian authorities implemented a blanket internet shutdown. Iranians have taken to the streets with increasing regularity, most notably in 2019 and 2022. This time, the principal driver was the acute economic hardships.
As a result, the January 2026 outpouring was not led by any one ethnic or ideological group. It was telling that Tehran bazaar merchants were part of it. Generally considered sympathetic to the regime, they have stayed away from previous protests. This will not have gone unnoticed by those in power, but the cross-cutting extent of Iranians’ grievances does not appear to have been enough to cause the system to unravel.
Blackouts and carnage
As with Iran’s other recent convulsions of anger, these protests—that began at the end of December—were met with violence and brutality by the government’s various security branches. Thousands have been killed, more than 10,000 detained, and thousands more injured. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the loyalist militia known as Basij have been central to suppressing the protests. The internet blackout has led to an information blackout. The true extent of the carnage may never be known.
The Iranian regime attributes the crisis to foreign intervention to destabilise Iran. It blames international sanctions for having a significant detrimental impact on the economy. While quick to blame others, authorities do not acknowledge that these sanctions were imposed because of Iran’s choices, whether this be to pursue a nuclear weapon or to equip and train armed militias around the Middle East.
Sanctions have clearly had an effect. In January 2025, inflation in Iran was high, at 31%, but rose throughout the year, peaking at 48% in October, before falling slightly to 42% in December. Faced with throttled trade and steep costs, Iranians are exasperated. The Iranian rial has lost 64% of its value over the past six months, pension payments have been delayed, poverty is increasing, and opportunities are few.
To add to the misery, air pollution in cities is getting worse, drought has hit agriculture, but those with regime links are growing richer. Corruption is rampant. Still, the Iranian power structure continues to empty the nation’s coffers, pouring what money it has left into the pursuit of its military and nuclear infrastructure, despite both having been badly damaged from Israeli and American airstrikes in June 2025.
