Northern Cyprus election comes with serious implicationshttps://en.majalla.com/node/327901/politics/northern-cyprus-election-comes-serious-implications
Northern Cyprus election comes with serious implications
The elections coulds be a watershed moment for the government in the north, its relations with Türkiye, and the wider geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean
Reuters
New Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman and his wife Nilden Bektas Erhürman celebrate his victory in the Turkish Cypriot presidential election, in the capital Nicosia, Cyprus, on October 19, 2025.
Northern Cyprus election comes with serious implications
Presidential elections in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus brought a landslide victory for the main opposition candidate on Sunday, in an outcome that will impact the dynamic of relations with Ankara.
Tufan Erhürman of the Republican Turkish Party secured almost 63% of the vote. He beat the sitting president of the TRNC, Ersin Tatar, who has been in the job for five years.
The TRNC covers the northeast of the Mediterranean island and is officially recognised as a state only by Türkiye. It is represented in over 20 countries, where it has diplomatic offices.
It declared independence in 1983, after violence between the Turkish and Greek communities on the island dating back to the 1960’s which eventually led to Türkiye’s military intervention in 1974 invaded following a coup engineered by Greece’s military government to take control of Cyprus.
The elections may prove to be a watershed moment for the government in the north, its relations with Türkiye—on which the TRNC almost fully depends—and the wider geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Erhürman's win amounts to backing a federal solution to the Cyprus issue, as opposed to Tatar's preference for a two-state solution, with equal sovereignty for both
Erhürman will become the sixth president of the TRNC since its founding. He will also be the lead negotiator of the Turkish side of future talks over a diplomatic solution to the Cyprus issue.
His win also amounted to backing for a federal solution to the Cyprus issue—which he advocated during the campaign—as opposed to Tatar's preference for a two-state solution, with equal sovereignty for both, and eventually, wider international recognition for the TRNC.
The presidential election was billed as a de-facto referendum on the long-running issue. Erhürman's vision for Cyprus involves a partnership between the Turks and the Greeks in the form of a joint Cyprus Republic with two "constituent states" on an equal footing.
But after his victory, Erhürman made it clear he would work closely with Ankara, saying: "No one should doubt that I will certainly carry out responsibilities related to foreign policy in close consultation with Türkiye and not accept anything outside of our agreement in that consultation".
That position was not what the Greek Cypriot side wanted to hear. He was hailed in the press there as a "pro-reunification candidate" and "a moderate who defeated a hardliner in a pivotal vote that could help revive stalled United Nations talks on reunifying Cyprus".
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and outgoing Turkish Cypriot President Ersin Tatar at the inauguration of a new presidential headquarters complex in the northern part of the divided Cypriot capital, Nicosia, on May 3, 2025.
Impact on Turkish politics
Türkiye had strongly backed Tatar during the campaign. Nonetheless, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and other high level officials congratulated Erhürman and pledged to support him in office. He is expected to visit Ankara in due course.
But Erdoğan and his closest domestic political ally, Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of Nationalist Action Party, appear to disagree over the issue. Immediately after the result, Bahçeli, pointed out that only half of the electorate had voted. He called on the Turkish Cypriot Parliament to declare the election results void and pass a resolution for the TRNC to join Türkiye.
When Erhürman and Erdoğan meet, it is likely that the two leaders will emphasise the areas where they agree, with Ankara respecting the outcome of the vote, while also pointing to the need to prioritise security for both Türkiye and the TRNC.
A fresh initiative for a resolution – both on Cyprus itself, and at the United Nations –would not come as a surprise in the coming weeks.
Anatomy of a landslide
Erhürman's landslide came from a range of factors. His federal leanings for the future of all of Cyprus appealed to voters amid a perception that Greek Cypriots in the south have benefitted from greater international recognition, including membership of the European Unity and access to the bloc's funds.
There was also the perceived failure of the previous Turkish Cypriot leadership to make tangible progress toward resolving the issue of the TRNC's future. Living standards have not improved and various scandals have struck.
Whatever lies ahead, any solution to the Cypriot question will not be easy. Both communities have a history marked with inter-communal violence.
Supporters of the Turkish Republican Party celebrate their victory in the Turkish Cypriot presidential elections in the Republic of Northern Cyprus on October 19, 2025.
Tangled history
In 1960 independence came. The Turks and Greeks established the Republic of Cyprus under an agreement guaranteed by Türkiye, Greece, and the United Kingdom.
Soon after, heavily armed Greek Cypriot troops and irregulars fought to gain sole control of the island and annex Cyprus to Greece under their ultra-nationalist ideology, known as Enosis. They attacked Turkish Cypriots, which eventually led to Türkiye's military intervention in 1974.
Since then, Greek Cypriots have lived in the south part of the island and Turkish Cypriots in the north, where they founded the TRNC. Negotiations between the Turkish and Greek sides to bring the island back together have consistently failed.
A 2004 plan presented by Kofi Annan, then the UN secretary-general, to create a single, bi-zonal state was put to a referendum on both sides of the island in April of that year. While 65% of Turkish Cypriots voted in favour, 75% of Greek Cypriots rejected it, leading to its demise. There are around 1 million Greek Cypriots, who do tend to resist political equality with the 470,000 Turkish Cypriots in the northern part of the island, seeing them as a minority. They also object to Türkiye continuing to be a guarantor state.
In 2017, negotiations held in Switzerland also ended in disarray. The south of the island, officially known as the Republic of Cyprus, was admitted to the EU in 2004, despite a convention that countries with unresolved border disputes cannot join.
Turkish Cypriots were left out by the move, and various European politicians and technocrats have since acknowledged that it was a mistake.
The Greek Cypriot government has benefited from EU funds as the sole representative of Cyprus, and has used membership to pursue its own political interests. It has resisted EU membership for Türkiye.
Recently, Greek Cypriots have intensified armament efforts. The United States has lifted its arms embargo. Israel, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, has co-operated with the Republic of Cyprus —including over air defence systems, according to recent reports—amid a wider problematic political relationship with Türkiye.
Cyprus' President Nikos Christodoulides (L) meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during an official visit in Jerusalem on May 4, 2025.
Oil in the water
There is another source of friction between the two parts of the island: natural resources, in the form of hydrocarbons in the waters of the Eastern Mediterranean.
The Greek side claims that Turkish Cypriots have no right to the potential reserves, and has aimed to put extra pressure on Türkiye's claims to them by inviting international giants like Chevron to get involved in exploration and drilling.
The TRNC's main sources of income are revenues from tourism and universities as well as casinos. The rest come from Türkiye, underlining the extent of its dependence on its Ankara sponsors.
The election of Erhürman may change the nature of the diplomacy over Cyprus, but it does not alter a political reality that the rest of the international community cannot ignore: there are almost half a million Turkish Cypriots, with a sense of their own national identity, and determined to be seen as equal citizens of the island.
