Turbulent timeline

Like the rest of the Mediterranean, Cyprus is no stranger to the impact of clashes between ambitious powers and changing rulers.

The Ottoman Empire – including modern-day Turkey's lands – conquered the island in 1571, ending the Venetians' 300-year rule.

The Venetians are now part of Italy.

In 1878, the administration of the entire island was ceded to Britain to ensure its support to counter a more pressing threat from Russia. During World War I, the British unilaterally annexed the Island. Colonial rule via London lasted until 1960.

That was when the Republic of Cyprus was established. Independence was drawn up based on a deal between Turkey and Greece, known as the Zurich Agreement.

There was also an accord between the leaders of the island's two communities – the London Agreement – with Britain acting as a guarantor alongside Turkey and Greece — the two nations with which the different Cypriot people identified.

The whole foundation of the Republic of Cyprus – stipulated in the constitution – enshrined equal political rights and status of the Greek and Turkish Cypriots.

That was not popular with Greece, or Greek Cypriots. But they were prepared to accept it, perhaps biding their time to press what they saw as a justifiable claim for supremacy over the island.

A lurch right

It did not take long for ultra-nationalists to lose patience. The EOKA, founded in 1955 against British colonial rule, started to turn its guns on Turkish Cypriots. Its slogan was a word meaning union with Greece, Enosis. By 1963, there was widespread communal violence.

Turkish Cypriots fled their villages and sought refuge together in parts of some towns and cities. These areas became enclaves surrounded by Greek Cypriots.

Turks soon formed their own armed groups. The Turkish Resistance Organisation was known by its vernacular abbreviation TMT.

Rauf Raif Denktaş, the leader of Turkish Cypriots who became the first president of the TRNC, said his people were offered a choice between submitting to life as a minority without rights or leaving the island, and instead, they decided to resist.

Government toppled

Then, in July 1974, came the coup. The EOKA, by now an ultra-nationalist, fascist Greek Cypriot organisation, was joined by the Greek Cypriot National Guard. They toppled the government.

Their plan was prepared and supervised by the military junta, then in control of Greece. The next stage was to suppress Turkish resistance and create an island that was, in effect, annexed by Athens.

Later in the same month, Turkey launched a military response, using its rights as a guarantor of the founding agreement. The intervention and the war that followed were to set the island on course for its modern-day division.

A notable TMT veteran – Celal Bayar, now 85 – says that from 1963 until 1974, he and his comrades fought against extinction at the hands of the ultra-nationalist Greek Cypriots and EOKA. Turkey's intervention turned the tide.

Greece's full ambitions were thwarted, creating a new reality in Cyprus. Turks who lived in the south moved to the north part of the island and vice versa.

Now, around 380,000 Turks live on 3,241 square kilometres, covering 35% of the Island. Approximately 800,000 Greek Cypriots live in the south.

The Turkish Cypriots were first organised as the Turkish Federated State of Cyprus. In 1983, they declared the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

No resolution

Ever since the war, international efforts to unify the island have failed. Talks supervised by the United Nations and involving intermediaries and guarantor countries have not worked.

Discussions over potential initiatives have lasted longer than the careers of some of the diplomats holding them. No agreement between the Turkish and Greek Cypriots has ever been struck.

The closest they came to a solution was in 2004 when a settlement known as the Annan Plan was named after the UN secretary-general, Kofi Annan, who brokered talks. It suggested a "bicommunal, bizonal federation" and was put to a referendum on both sides of the Island.

There were hopes that the Republic of Cyprus's looming membership of the European Union and the lure of a leap forward in economic prosperity would incentivise two votes in favour on both sides of the island.

Annan Plan annulled

It was not to be. Greek Cypriots rejected the plan overwhelmingly, with almost 76% voting against it. In a highly unusual move, the president of the Greek Cypriots, Tassos Papadopoulos, called on people to vote against it, even though he had negotiated its terms.

Turkish Cypriots backed it, with almost 65% voting in favour.

Immediately after the referendum, Annan published a report stating that "The Turkish Cypriot vote has undone any rationale for pressuring and isolating them."

Despite their vote against the Annan Plan, which dashed international hopes for a settlement, Greek Cypriots were admitted into the EU. Turkish Cypriots were left out, with their isolation continuing.

The TRNC's president, Ersin Tatar, says that the EU made a grave mistake admitting a country with an unresolved territorial dispute, meaning a quarter of the island's population was left out.

Several top-level EU officials agree although they have said so since leaving office, including the former British foreign secretary, Jack Straw.

The making of a ghost state

The TRNC fulfils all but one of the conditions of statehood, as identified in the standard definition in international law and set out in the Montevideo Convention of 1933.

It has a permanent population, a defined territory, a government and the capacity to enter into relations with other countries. It is the lack of international recognition that holds it back. And now there are calls for that to change.

Until it does, the TRNC's access to international forums where the world does business is limited. But it has gained some representation, through trade offices in the UN in New York and Geneva and around 20 countries.

It also participates in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation meetings under the title of "Turkish Cypriot State". It has recently joined the Organisation of Turkic States with observer status.

TRNC receives some assistance from international organisations, including the EU, but compared to the funds allocated to Greek Cypriots, they are minimal. 

But Greek Cypriots resist any form of international contact with the TRNC and use blocking powers within the EU to do so, even over matters unrelated to the island.

They were furious when a United States House of Representatives member, Pete Sessions, flew directly to Ercan airport from Ankara a few weeks ago, becoming the first US official to do so. 

Links with the world

Even under challenging conditions, the TRNC and Turkey have been working on several large-scale projects with a regional vision and a long-term perspective.

There is now an 80-kilometre pipeline carrying fresh water from Turkey to Cyprus under the sea. It has a 75 million cubic meters capacity, stored and distributed from the recently built Geçitköy Dam.

Ercan Airport has also been expanded and now has a capacity of 10 million passengers. There are plans for interconnectivity in electricity supply from 2028, which would be a significant step toward joining the Middle East and Europe grids.

It all shows the viability and long-term outlook of this unrecognised state.

Özer Kanlı, editor of the Kıbrıs newspaper, says: "These investments are clear indicators that TRNC is here to stay and Turkey is there to support it. These projects can benefit the whole island and not only Turks, or even beyond the region."

Economy

Among the primary sources of income for the TRNC are tourism, universities, casinos and remittances from Turkish Cypriots abroad.

Foreigners coming to the TRNC fall into three categories: Tourists from Turkey, Greek Cypriots and third-country nationals.  Some tourists arriving at Larnaca airport cross into the TRNC for the thrill of going into a ghost state.

And as opposed as Greek Cypriots may be to the TRNC, they also love visiting it. Everything in the north, including gasoline, is cheaper than in the south, and a weak Turkish lira against the euro makes the TRNC even more attractive.

Since Turkish Cypriots allowed crossings in 2003, Greek Cypriots have been pouring into TRNC to shop, wine and dine and gamble.

Visitor traffic

According to Greek Cypriot police data for 2022, over 1.3 million Greek Cypriots crossed into TRNC, double the previous year's number. The number of non-islander foreign nationals who crossed into TRNC from the south was almost 1.5 million, compared to under 500,000 last year.

Around 1 million people visited the TRNC via Turkey in 2022, with 70% of them Turkish citizens. In the same year, 1.9 million Turkish Cypriots crossed into the south. But recent attacks against Muslims, Syrians and others, may deter Turkish Cypriot visitors.

Property sales to foreigners have boomed. Many third-country nationals who have business in the south preferring to live in the north, because it is cheaper and calmer.

Property prices have almost doubled. Russians top the list of the new wave of arrivals, to such an extent that the country's embassy plans to open a consulate office in the north.

Other major property purchasers are Ukrainians and Iranians, but immigration also has deeper roots, with 10,000 British retirees settling in northern Cyprus since 1974.

Education

Universities and higher education facilities are major assets for the TRNC. It has over 20. Almost 110,000 students enrolled for the 2021/2022 academic year, 13,000 TRNC citizens.

Of the rest, 43,000 were from Turkey and 51,000 came from third countries, mainly from the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa.

Some on student visas have used the TRNC as a springboard to enter the EU. That has given Greek Cypriots ammunition for criticism, amid unease in the south at the boost education has boosted the reputation and income of the north. Turkish Cypriot police have responded to warnings from the EU over the exploitation of student visas, with some deportations and stricter checks at entry points.

Political structure

The TRNC holds multi-party elections every five years to elect a prime minister and a president.

The president is responsible for the Cyprus negotiations and international relations in general. The prime minister runs the rest of the business of government.

The last general election was on 23 January 2022, where 400 candidates from eight political parties competed for the 50 seats in the parliament. The last presidential election was in October 2020, when Ersin Tatar, one of 11 candidates, won to become the 5th President of the TRNC.

Political debate in the north is centred around the future of the Turkish Cypriots.

Opposition parties attack the government over the state of the economy, mismanagement and bad governance.

Relations with Turkey are at the core of politics in TRNC. Because of its dependency on Turkey and its use of the Turkish lira as currency, TRNC has also been affected by recent economic fluctuations there.

Not all Turkish Cypriots are content with the notion of a separate Turkish Cypriot state or dependence on Turkey. These groups believe they would get on well with the Greek Cypriots if left alone. They oppose all foreign troops, Greek or Turkish, on the island.

International boots on the ground

The Turkish and Greek entities on the island are separated by a buffer zone —180 kilometre long, 7.4km at its widest and 3.3 meters at its narrowest point—  monitored by the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

Many Turks feel that the UNFICYP favours the Greeks and argue that the presence of Turkish troops — not the UNFICYP — is what keeps peace on the Island.

Recently, UN soldiers and Turks scuffled Pyla, one of only four villages inside the buffer zone and the only one where Turks and Greeks live together. Turks felt the UN troops were heavy-handed in preventing a road from being built in the area, and had not intervened when the Greeks started similar construction.

Toward a two-state future

Turkish Cypriots feel isolated, ignored and disappointed. Their current ghost state leaves them feeling at a disadvantage to their southern neighbours. At the same time, the dominance of the issue of sovereignty holds back attempts to improve other aspects of governance.

Meanwhile, Greek Cypriots have benefitted from their official international recognition. The economic disparity created by the contrast is stark. The minimum wage in the TNRC is 18,000 lira per month, or €610. In the south, it is €940 per month.

The south hopes that the Turkish side will one day accept control from their republic, using the EU membership that would come with it as an incentive, or rather as bait.

In the north, there is no desire to give up sovereignty. But hopes for a solution from elements of the Annan Plan, a bizonal or bi-communal approach, have been abandoned by many. Patience has worn out. People want equality and a two-state solution.

Erdoğan's call

At the most recent UN General Assembly, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan urged the international community to recognise the independence of the TRNC and establish diplomatic, political and economic ties.

He explicitly said a solution can no longer be based on the federation model.

The Greek Cypriots categorically oppose this approach.  But the hard reality for them is that the Turkish presence on the island cannot be ignored, and there can be no return to pre-1974 conditions.

There are calls for creativity from the TNRC to integrate more with the international community. How they are answered could bring the ghost state into a better-formed future.

Timeline:

• 1571: Ottomans conquer Cyprus

• 1878: Britain assumes provisional administration of the Island from the Ottomans

• 1914: Unilateral annexation of the Island by Britain 

• 1960: End of British rule and declaration of the Republic of Cyprus

• 1963: Intercommunal violence between Greek and Turkish Cypriots begin

• 1974: Turkish military intervention

• 1983: Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is declared

• 2003: Turkish and Greek Cypriots cross the island's  "green line" for the first time after the war

• 2004: Annan plan referendum is held

• 2004: Cyprus becomes EU member

• 2017: Crans Montana talks fail

• 2020: Turks begin referring to a two-state solution