The world inches towards Palestine recognition. Too little, too late?

This is what is needed to resolve the conflict between the Palestinians and the Israelis, because dealing with Israel as if it were 'business-as-usual' has yielded no results. This is especially timely in view of its conduct since October 2023—violating every principle of international and humanitarian law, violating the sovereignty of numerous states, and showing a complete disregard for human life.

Pressure on Israel

Palestinians do not have the luxury of time. The prospect of their state is vanishing before their very eyes. This must stop. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that he will not allow a Palestinian state and wants to reshape the Middle East according to Israel's interests—by force if necessary.

The international community cannot be influenced by the United States, because US President Donald Trump is unpredictable. Other states should hope for the best but plan for the worst by taking appropriate measures to realise a Palestinian state. This starts at the forthcoming United Nations General Assembly in New York.

A resolution can be adopted with specific sanctions, like those announced by Spain. This is designed to curtail Israel's ability to keep prosecuting its war against Palestinians and to curb its hegemonic plans, such as banning weapon transfers, not providing fuel for fighter aircraft, preventing ships carrying arms from refuelling or docking, and closing airspace to Israeli jets and spy planes.

Should it have no effect, an exact date should be set to suspend Israel from the General Assembly, just as the Assembly did to South Africa's apartheid regime. Ideally, the Security Council would adopt a resolution calling for a Palestinian state within a larger call for a new regional security architecture, for Israeli figures and entities would be sanctioned, and for Israel—having taken two years to destroy the Gaza Strip—to be made responsible for its reconstruction.

Beyond that, the Security Council could monitor the export of Israeli natural gas revenues, with proceeds placed in a UN escrow account to compensate Palestinian victims and to contribute to reconstruction. There is the precedent of this: the oil-for-food programme in Iraq. But as with all these measures, the United States—with its veto as one of five permanent Security Council members—will quash any efforts.

This should not be a deterrent. Draft resolutions can be tabled, voted through, and then postponed until circumstances allow for their adoption. Simply having the Council discuss such possibilities will send a signal. On the flipside, the UN budget may be hit if the US feels threatened by talk of sanctions against its ally, Israel. Member states will need a Plan B.

A forever partner?

Countries can select the sanctions listed in the declaration that are appropriate for their circumstances, but at a minimum, they should prevent Israel from continuing its wars and involve the US in efforts to create an alternative to Israel's vision for regional security. There are those who say this is counterproductive, but equally, it may alert Israelis to the need to change their government.

To date, US President Donald Trump has backed Israel wholeheartedly, but will he change his position? For decades, Israel has enjoyed widespread support in the United States, but poll after poll shows this to be rapidly diminishing. Israel may not care. Indeed, it may react to any General Assembly moves by annexing the West Bank, in whole or in part. This is not just possible, but probable, as are expulsion orders in Gaza.

As the 80th UNGA approaches, states will be concerned about the backlash to recognising a Palestinian state and to holding Israel to account. The price of not doing so is that it continues to pursue its expulsion policy in Gaza. Put simply, doing nothing is no longer morally acceptable. In New York next week, there will be nowhere to hide.