Politics

Crunch time: this UN General Assembly will be a big one for Palestine

Will recognition from France, the UK, Canada and Australia matter? Or will Israel simply go on defying the vast majority of UN member states? September will tell us.

Eiko Ojala

Crunch time: this UN General Assembly will be a big one for Palestine

Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy

last update on 11 Aug 2025

The UN conference on a two-state solution at the end of July was a further important step in enhancing the prospects of establishing a Palestinian state, at a time when the concept has been losing currency, including amongst Palestinians unable to resist Israel’s creeping annexation of the West Bank.

Since 7 October 2023, the international community has stood idly by in the face of Israel’s blatant and relentless defiance of every tenet of international law. This has finally forced several fence-sitting states to realise the inevitable: that they have to actively support the creation of a Palestinian state.

Critical among these have been France (co-chair of the conference) and the UK, both permanent members of the UN Security Council and Israeli allies. President Emmanuel Macron said France would recognise a Palestinian state during the 80th UN General Assembly next month.

On Monday, 11 August, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that his country will also recognise a Palestinian state in September, joining France, the UK, and Canada as global condemnation over Israel’s actions in Gaza intensifies. This, in effect, created a further stop on the long and arduous way towards the creation of a Palestinian state.

This offered Israel one last chance to revise its position, not by words but by action, and pushed some hesitant European states to say that they were considering following suit, including the UK government, which—with caveats—finally aligned with public opinion. This is of historic significance.

Coming full circle

In 1917, it was the UK that promised the creation of a Jewish homeland on the territory of the British Mandate of Palestine, in what became known as the Balfour Declaration (after Lord Balfour, the foreign secretary at the time). With London’s recognition of a Palestinian state, the UK will have come full circle, since the Balfour Declaration said a Jewish homeland would not “prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine”.

Although most Israelis remain opposed to a Palestinian state, there are signs that they also increasingly oppose Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies, particularly on Gaza. If this feeds a dynamic that removes the most extremist right-wing government in Israeli history, there is a glimmer of hope that Israel may change its position on a Palestinian state.

The Outcome Document adopted by the conference last month laid out what can be described as a ‘road map’ with clear milestones for the establishment of a Palestinian state, but it lacks timelines tied to specific objectives. That can be fixed in the follow-up at the UN General Assembly next month. There are eight working groups and an international mechanism for the follow-up of the objectives.

Israel's defiance of every tenet of international law has finally forced several fence-sitting states to realise they have to actively support the creation of a Palestinian state

The Outcome Document asks Israel "to issue a clear public commitment to the two-state solution, including a sovereign, and viable Palestinian state; to immediately end violence and incitement against Palestinians; to immediately halt all settlement, land grabs and annexation activities in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem; publicly renounce to any annexation project or settlement policy; and put an end to settlers' violence, including by implementing UNSC resolution 904 and enacting a legislation to punish and deter violent settlers and their illegal actions".

There is very little chance that Israel will comply with any of this, so the General Assembly will need to take further action, yet the Outcome Document is not one-sided and requires the Palestinian Authority to improve in terms of governance, transparency, fiscal sustainability, incitement and hate speech, service provision, and industry.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who will be 90 later this year, has already announced that the PA is prepared to comply, but can only do so if Israel removes the many restrictions that it imposes and stops withholding the tax revenues due to the PA. Recently, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich put a further dent in Palestinian hopes by restricting the activities of Palestinian banks.

The one matter that is undoubtedly within Palestinian control is reconciliation. In recent years, much work has been done to bring the main Palestinian factions (including Hamas) together. Mediators in Cairo, Moscow, and Beijing have all tried. Reconciliation—as yet elusive—would be a milestone on the road, and it would increase international support for a Palestinian state. Follow-up on this is much needed.

Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP — People erect tents amidst the rubble of destroyed buildings as displaced Palestinians return to the northern areas of the Gaza Strip in Jabalia on January 23, 2025, during a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was reached.

Growing momentum?

The Gaza Recovery and Reconstruction Conference is scheduled to be held in Cairo prior to the General Assembly. Egypt is hoping to get commitments of $3bn to cover the initial phase of the Strip's reconstruction, according to the Early Recovery, Reconstruction, and Development of Gaza Plan endorsed by the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.

The recent declaration of support for a Palestinian state by France, the UK, and Canada could provide a funding boost. This donor conference could also let those countries that have shielded Israel from international opprobrium partially restore their reputations.

If France, the UK, and Canada follow up on their statements and officially recognise a State of Palestine at the 80th General Assembly in September, it will mean that those countries that still oppose a Palestinian state account for less than 10% of the world's population.

Australia, which recently sanctioned Smotrich and another Israeli far-right minister (Itamar Ben-Gvir), may follow. Australia's Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong said this week that recognition of a Palestinian state was a matter of "when, not if", adding that "there is a risk there will be no Palestine left to recognise".

For the sake of its own credibility, the General Assembly must take action against Israel when it refuses to comply with the conference's Outcome Document over settlements and violence by giving Israel a compliance deadline (29 November, perhaps, since this was the day that the General Assembly voted to partition Palestine).

If, by that date, Israel remained in defiance, its participation in the General Assembly should be suspended, as it was with South Africa in 1974, and the Security Council should adopt a resolution on a two-state solution (it has already endorsed the principle in Resolution 1397, adopted in 2002).

AFP — US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield casts a veto vote during a UN Security Council meeting on a Gaza ceasefire at UN Headquarters in New York City on February 20, 2024.

Crunch time

The new resolution should enable the creation of a temporary UN internal stabilisation force to be deployed to the Palestinian Territories. Of course, this would not get past the inevitable US veto, so an alternative is to table the draft and postpone a vote for such a time when its adoption is guaranteed. That would be another milestone on the road to establishing a Palestinian state.

The United Nations is already under severe financial stress, owing to funding cuts triggered by the Trump administration in the US. Yet its credibility is also under pressure, given how Israel continues to blatantly defy it. Will UN members live up to their commitment to establish a Palestinian state, or will they continue to vacillate?

It goes without saying that UN resolutions do not, on their own, establish a Palestinian state, but at least a firm and clear position by the UN will give the Palestinian people confidence that a state of their own may be achievable.

The more important factor is for Israel to realise that a Palestinian state is necessary for its own security and that of the Middle East. Before that, though, nothing is more urgent than ensuring that humanitarian aid gets to Palestinians in Gaza unhindered.

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