Far from spontaneous, Trump’s plan for Gaza has been plotted

Months before the US president stood on a podium alongside Benjamin Netanyahu and shocked the world, a research paper covered the details of the rebuilding and administration of Gaza

Former US government official Jared Kushner, married to Trump's daughter Ivanka, stands behind Trump at the 2024 Republican National Convention on July 18, 2024.
Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)
Former US government official Jared Kushner, married to Trump's daughter Ivanka, stands behind Trump at the 2024 Republican National Convention on July 18, 2024.

Far from spontaneous, Trump’s plan for Gaza has been plotted

US President Donald Trump’s proposal to transfer Palestinians from Gaza and then rebuild the Strip shocked the war. Rejected by the Arab world and much of the international community, it was praised by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said it could “change history” and was the “first original idea (on Gaza) in years”.

According to The New York Times, Trump had no meetings or discussions to explore the practicalities or legalities of his proposal to “own” Gaza and displace its two million residents before announcing it at a press conference. His team did not study the feasibility of the proposal nor the level of potential US involvement in it.

Yet the idea did not come from nowhere. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and first-term advisor, said in February 2024 that “Gaza’s waterfront could be very valuable”. In an interview with the Middle East Initiative, a Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government programme, he suggested transferring Gaza's Palestinian population to Egypt.

Sensing an opportunity

The idea seems to have resonated with Trump who, like Kushner, is a real estate developer. In a radio interview shortly before his election win, Trump suggested that Gaza could be “one of the best places in the world”, but the Palestinians “never took advantage” of its Mediterranean coastal location. It could be “better than Monaco,” he added, because it had “the best location in the Middle East”.

Trump unveiled his idea that America de-populate, take, and develop Gaza when hosting Netanyahu at the White House on 11 February 2025. Yet the seeds had been outlined six months earlier in a paper prepared by George Washington University professor Joseph Pelzman.

The paper was presented at a joint meeting of the International Trade and Finance Association (ITFA) and the Centre of Excellence for the Economic Study of the Middle East and North Africa (CEESMENA) in Jerusalem on 15 August 2024. The report, titled An Economic Plan for the Reconstruction of Gaza: A Build-Operate-Transfer Approach, was shared with Trump's team, who were being asked to think outside the box to end the war.

It proposes a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model for the reconstruction of Gaza and the private provision of public services. The paper sees this as an economic, rather than a political, issue and treats the Gaza Strip as a failed economic entity in need of investment and structural reforms.

Outlining an idea

The paper proposes that foreign investors finance and manage the reconstruction of Gaza under at least a 50-year lease before handing control back to a local administration. Writing in December 2024, Pelzman said: “Since Israel’s unilateral withdrawal in 2005 left the Oslo architecture in place, we can begin to lease Gaza to equity shareholders for a minimum of 50-100 years.” Investors would own equity stakes in the development projects, giving them a vested interest in Gaza's economic success.

The civil administration of Gaza would be contracted out to investors or their representatives to provide public services, while Gaza’s economy would be rebuilt around three pillars: tourism (after the development of luxury beachfront resorts along the Mediterranean coast), agriculture (using modern irrigation and desalination systems) and technology, where it would become a regional hub.

Gaza's education system would be overhauled, adopting a model similar to the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, with a curriculum developed under international oversight and aligned with the Singapore International Baccalaureate model. Educators would be brought in from abroad, extremist ideologies would be eliminated, and young people would be prepared for jobs in tourism, agriculture and technology.

Paying taxes and registering documents would be done online through a newly developed system of e-governance. Physically, the Strip would be thoroughly excavated to remove all underground military tunnels built by Hamas. Residential complexes would be built on the eastern side of Gaza utilising solar power for electricity generation, while resorts and restaurants would line the coast. Between the two, there would be a series of agricultural greenhouses.

Pelzman proposes that foreign investors finance and manage the reconstruction of Gaza under at least a 50-year lease, then handing control back

Building from scratch

High-end hotels, eateries, and entertainment centres would be built on the western beachfront, while an above-ground rail system would largely replace private vehicle ownership. Gaza would be powered by solar panels and the Strip's own offshore natural gas, ending its energy reliance on Israel. A natural gas power plant would be built to provide electricity, while desalination plants would provide clean water.

Gaza currently lacks a functional seaport, so a deep-water commercial port would be built for trade and economic growth, subject to political and security considerations, while a new international airport would replace the destroyed Dahniya International Airport, connecting Gaza to international markets, facilitating tourism and exports. Ports were envisaged and provided for in the Oslo Accords.

Finally, security would initially be managed by international stakeholders with a vested interest in Gaza's economic growth. Hamas and other militant groups would be permanently removed. Sovereignty would be addressed after the expiry of the lease, once a stable administrative and legal system was in-place. In this way, it would follow a similar model to Hong Kong or Puerto Rico, with investors having strong interim oversight before handing over to local rule.

Costs and timings

Estimates vary, but the huge reconstruction of Gaza could cost between $1-2tn and take a decade. Under this plan, investors would be given a direct stake with a 50-100 year lease. But how the US (or any foreign entity) could legally take control of Gaza, relocate its population, and rebuild it as proposed in Pelzman's report is both unclear and highly contentious. 

Sovereignty would be addressed after 50-100 years, when a stable civil administration and legal system have been successfully established

It lacks a clear legal basis in international law, under which Israel remains the de facto military occupier despite its withdrawal in 2005. Even the Oslo Accords defined Gaza as a 'disputed territory', not a sovereign state. It divided Palestinian territory into Areas A, B, and C. Israel has full control over Area C, which includes parts of Gaza.

There is no recognised government in Gaza that could block foreign intervention. Hamas is a non-state actor, and the Palestinian Authority has no influence there. On this basis, the report says Israel could grant the US (or an international body) the authority to administer Gaza as part of a post-war settlement. It may also be argued that leasing Gaza for development is an economic arrangement, not colonialism. 

The report cites legal precedents for the leasing model, such as the Panama Canal Zone (which came under the US from 1903-99), Puerto Rico (which became a US territory with limited autonomy), and Hong Kong (which Britain leased from China between 1898 and 1997). 

As questions swirl over the future sovereignty of Gaza, it is ironic that Trump is now talking about 'taking back' the Panama Canal after 25 years of it under Panamanian sovereignty. Displaced Palestinians, hoping their forebears may one day return to their homeland, take note.

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