Iran's waning influence means it will now turn inwards

In May 2025, Al Majalla's cover story focused on US President Donald Trump's ultimatum to Iran: reach a nuclear deal or face a military strike. Tehran was given 60 days to respond to a message sent by Trump to the Supreme Leader, urging negotiations. At the time, we cautioned that Iran should take Trump's threats seriously.

And indeed it was so. When the deadline passed, Israeli warplanes struck targets inside Iran on 13 June, despite the fact that negotiations were scheduled for the following day. It killed dozens of top-ranking Iranian military figures as well as several nuclear scientists. Tehran responded forcefully, and the two sides exchanged attacks. Then, on 22 June, President Trump authorised US strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. But after Iran launched a symbolic retaliation against the American al-Udeid base in Qatar, Trump abruptly announced a ceasefire mere hours after Tehran's strike, dubbing it the exchange 'The 12-Day War'.

Left alone

As mentioned above, none of Iran's allies joined Iran in its fight against Israel. Hezbollah, Iraq's Shiite militias, Iran-backed cells in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza all remained on the sidelines. Notably—and despite Iran's support for Russia's war in Ukraine—Moscow also did not intervene. Nor did China, which relies heavily on Iranian oil, extend any meaningful assistance, apart from verbal condemnations. Iran stood alone, while its partners watched closely from the sidelines.

As matters currently stand, the 'day after' looks to be one in which Iran's focus will turn inwards. Its leaders claimed victory over Israel and the US—which was part of the ceasefire understandings that offered Iran a face-saving off-ramp—but the conflict will likely persist, albeit in a low-level yet sustained manner.

Historical parallels

Here, history offers a telling parallel. After the US repelled Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1991, Iraq spent the next decade bogged down by weapons inspections and plagued by internal strife and dissent. Thirteen years later, in 2003, a US-led invasion toppled his regime.

Going forward, Iran will likely face significant international pressure, including looming European sanctions in August, unless a nuclear deal is reached. Such an agreement would require intrusive inspections and for Iran to disclose the whereabouts of approximately 408 kilogrammes of enriched uranium. This could put Iran on the North Korean path: international isolation coupled with nuclear deterrence to ensure regime continuity.

Read more: Attacks on Iran make a nuclear bomb more likely

As Iran reels from waning regional influence, it also faces a daunting set of internal challenges and an emboldened opposition demanding accountability. 

This means it will be too tied down with internal issues to even try to reassert its regional dominance. It will be purely focused on ensuring the government's survival. How will this new geopolitical dynamic shape the region? Al Majalla tackles the implications of the recent Israel-Iran war on the Middle East and the world.