Can diplomacy stop the Israel-Iran war before it's too late?https://en.majalla.com/node/326062/politics/can-diplomacy-stop-israel-iran-war-its-too-late
Can diplomacy stop the Israel-Iran war before it's too late?
De-escalation is in the overwhelming interest of most countries in the region and the world, and we could see many extend a hand to help bring the conflict to an end
Axel Rangel García
Can diplomacy stop the Israel-Iran war before it's too late?
Israel’s unprecedented attacks on Iran on 13 June have essentially morphed into an effective war, with Israel and Iran now both hitting each other’s civilian areas. Just as Israel has shown little such regard for civilian life in its wars on Gaza and Lebanon, the same is true in Iran, where it has killed well over 200 civilians thus far.
Its ambitions seem to go beyond destroying Iran’s nuclear and military sites and toward regime change. And although the United States has thus far stayed out of the war, it is inextricably linked to it.
The Israeli attacks came in the midst of US-Iran diplomacy. The sixth round was scheduled for 15 June in Muscat, but the US seemingly misled Iran, green-lighting the Israeli attacks before the talks could take place. With Iran facing extensive destruction, Trump hopes that the country will now come back to the negotiating table, effectively capitulating to his demand and signing a deal. The alternative might be the US’s forceful entry into the war against Iran, with developments on Tuesday hinting at this possibility.
Putin has already declared his readiness to mediate. Joint Trump-Putin pressure on Iran and Israel could help end the conflict.
However, Israeli and American war goals are different. Israel openly wants regime change, although it's not clear whether it has decided on what form this should take. For its part, the US simply wants a behaviour change, with Tehran proving that it won't pursue nuclear weapons and support regional groups that pose a threat to Israel.
Iran might thus have a golden opportunity to drive a wedge between the US and Israel by negotiating with Trump and getting to an acceptable deal, which could save it from Israel's broader regime change goals. There are signs that the Iranian leadership is pursuing this strategy, even after Trump's open rhetorical support for Israel's war on Iran.
On 17 June, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is also its chief nuclear negotiator, took to X to attack Netanyahu. He accused the Israeli prime minister of wanting "to scuttle a DEAL between Iran and the US, which we were on the right path to achieve.... He is playing yet another American President, and ever more American taxpayers, for absolute fools."
Benjamin Netanyahu is a wanted war criminal. He is also a con man who has duped successive U.S. Presidents into fighting his own wars for almost three decades.
By all indications, the purpose of Netanyahu's criminal attack on Iran—killing hundreds of innocent civilians,… pic.twitter.com/d1p6ZmSEEg
US-Iran talks at this difficult hour could indeed end the devastating war with Israel. It will be in the overwhelming interest of most countries in the region, which seek de-escalation. Conversely, if the Israel-Iran war were to expand to include the US, Iran might try to block the Strait of Hormuz and attack US bases in the region, including those in Gulf Cooperation Council countries. This would be disastrous for regional stability.
Countries with leverage
Several countries may now step forward to help bring an end to this disastrous conflict before it further enflames the region. Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, could have a critical role as they are in a unique position of having extensive relations with all three parties: Trump, Iran and Israel. Putin has already declared his readiness, and a joint Trump-Putin pressure on both Iran and Israel might be just the recipe that helps achieve this outcome.
Saudi Arabia itself could be an important partner. Riyadh, which resolutely condemned the Israeli attacks on Iran, doesn't have relations with Israel and conditions such ties on an end to the occupation of Palestinian territories and the formation of a Palestinian state. But it does have a key strategic partnership with Trump. It also has an increasingly important relationship with Tehran, evidenced in the visit of a Saudi military delegation to Iran in April. Tehran considers its ties with Riyadh of utmost importance, and any buy-in from Saudi Arabia could be an important part of any deal.
Even if Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman simply nudged both Trump and Iran toward a deal, his word will go a long way on both sides. The United Arab Emirates—the only GCC country which has diplomatic relations with both Iran and Israel—could also play a role, as could Bahrain, which has diplomatic ties with Israel and hopes to re-establish them with Tehran.
There are also actors outside the region who could play a role. China could also play a role since it has extensive ties to both Israel and Iran. Beijing has been wary of getting too entangled in Middle East politics, but it did previously help engineer a landmark deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia that led to the establishment of full diplomatic ties between the two countries.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian with his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, right, and former Chinese counterpart Qin Gang in Beijing April 6, 2023.
India could also play a role, given its excellent ties with both Israel and Iran. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been a close partner of Netanyahu, and India was one of the rare countries to abstain on a major Gaza resolution at the United Nations General Assembly. At the same time, New Delhi also has long-standing and close ties to Iran. In the interest of regional stability, it could leverage them or be part of a broader attempt to stop the war in its tracks.
France's President Emmanuel Macron and the broader European community are also part of the picture. They have disappointed Iran by effectively backing Israel in the current war. Their mutual relationship was already in tatters, given Tehran's military support for Russia in its war against Ukraine. Their status is also not high before the US, as seen in the spat between Trump and Macron during the G7 summit in Canada. However, given their extensive experience in dealing with Iran, Europeans can play a crucial role in the solution.
Iran finds itself in a critical juncture, where only bold diplomacy may save it from broader destruction or even worse scenarios, like a government collapse. However, if it wanted a diplomatic off-ramp, there are numerous regional and international players that would be happy to offer their support.
