US President Donald Trump has long had a consistent position on Iran: He doesn’t want to change the country’s rulers, but he does want to change their behaviour, chiefly to stop them from getting a nuclear weapon.
In order to get there, he is intent on bringing back his first-term policy of maximum pressure, i.e. tough sanctions on Iran that were never discontinued under Biden but were sometimes enforced with less urgency. What makes this term different is that Trump might be also ready to back Israeli strikes on Iran – or at least to use this threat to bring Iran to the negotiating table.
Trump’s approach to Iran has always involved a rough game of carrots and sticks. This has already been on display during the president’s opening weeks. On 4 February, he signed a national security presidential memorandum that brought further pressure on Iran, but just as he was signing it, he said that he wanted to negotiate with the Iranian leaders and that he wished he didn’t have to sign the memorandum.
He reiterated this position the day after in a Truth social post. He wanted Iran to be “a great and successful Country,” he said, so long as it didn’t have nuclear weapons (the memorandum also mentions Iran’s support for militias in the region and its ballistic missile programmes.) He called for a “Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement” that would let Iran “peacefully grow and prosper” and called for both countries to “start working on it immediately.”
The initial response from the Iranian leadership was a swift rejection. On 7 February, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei thundered that talks with the US were not “smart or honourable.” They had failed in the past and would fail again, he said. But these are just the opening shots of what will be a long process. Virtually all serious voices in the Iranian security establishment know that the country has no choice but to negotiate with the US at some point.
Read more: The eventuality of US-Iran negotiations
Back-breaking sanctions
The US-imposed sanctions are breaking the country’s back. Following Khamenei’s speech, the Iranian rial is now trading at almost one million to a single US dollar. This makes the Iranian currency one of the most worthless in the world. Add this to the massive battering that Iran’s so-called 'Axis of Resistance' has suffered in the last two years, and the country’s brittle social peace and the urgency of economic improvement becomes clearer.
But even if the economic pressure wasn’t enough to bring Iran to the table, the Trump administration could use another tool: The threat of devastating Israeli strikes. Reports in US media have recently suggested that Israel is preparing for attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites in the coming year.
Even Trump’s pro-peace post on 5 February included an implied threat that if a deal was not reached, the US could join Israel in attacks on Iran. Such attacks have long been championed by Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. With Trump in office, he might feel like he finally has the backing to make them happen. But Trump might also attempt to use this threat to get the concessions he wants from Iran.
Trump’s chief diplomat, Marco Rubio, visited Israel as the first leg of his first trip to the Middle East. After meeting him on 16 February, Netanyahu said Iran had topped their discussion. US and Israel stood “shoulder to shoulder in countering the threat” from Iran, which he says is responsible for instability in the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. As he had done during his Senate confirmations, Rubio also attacked the regime for its lack of support from the Iranian people, whom he described as “victims of that regime.”
Rubio thus goes where his boss did not, affirming that the Islamic Republic is not a legitimate representative of Iranians. This approach is similar to Netanyahu, who has issued several messages to the Iranian people, asking them to overthrow their regime. According to US intelligence reports, Israel seeks regime change in Iran, although this goal is easier said than done.
But Trump himself is unlikely to endorse regime change. Trying to get a better deal with Iran fits better with his declared agenda and his approach to foreign relations. Still, backing threats by Israel might be reasonably seen by Trump as a useful negotiating tactic.
