US President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukrainian forces to fire long-range missiles at targets located on Russian soil has inevitably raised concerns that the move could prompt a major escalation in the conflict in the dying days of his presidency.
Some critics of the move—especially in Ukraine—claim Biden’s authorisation is a case of too little, too late in terms of making a tangible contribution to Ukraine’s war effort. For months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been calling on the US and other allies to greenlight the use of long-range missiles, such as the UK’s Storm Shadow, against targets within Russia, as opposed to using them to attack Russian positions in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, such as Crimea.
As the US military controls most of the satellite and intelligence systems used to operate these weapons systems, the Ukrainians would find it difficult to operate the missiles without Washington’s approval.
Prior reluctance
The Biden administration has previously been reluctant to give the go-ahead for them to be used against targets in Russia over concerns that it could provoke the Kremlin into a major escalation of the conflict. Biden’s belated decision, therefore, to allow the Ukrainians to use the weapons for such purposes constitutes a major U-turn in his administration’s approach, even if questions still remain about whether they will actually make any difference at this late stage in the conflict.
In the absence of any sign-off from the White House, the Ukrainians have struggled to defend their territory against a concerted Russian attempt to capture more territory in eastern Ukraine ahead of any future attempts to negotiate a ceasefire, which is widely expected to take place once Donald Trump re-enters the White House next year.
The president-elect has boasted that he will end the long-running conflict within “24 hours” of taking office, a threat that has prompted both sides to gain as much territorial advantage on the battlefield ahead of any future peace negotiations.
While Russia has concentrated its efforts on capturing more territory in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are determined to hold onto Russian territory they captured in Russia’s southern Kursk region in the summer, which could prove to be a useful bargaining chip in any future peace talks.
The Russians, though, are also attempting to recapture Ukrainian-occupied territory in Kursk, and their efforts have recently been boosted by the arrival of a 10,000-strong force of North Korean troops in support of the Russian war effort.
This could be one reason that the Biden administration is believed to have relented over its previous resistance to allowing the Ukrainians to use US-made long-range missiles, such as the US Army’s Tactical Missile System (ATCMS). Such weapons could prove vital to the Ukrainian forces' ability to defend territory, as they can be used to attack Russian military targets in Russia, such as airfields and missile bases.
The Ukrainians are said to be particularly keen to deploy such weapons in their efforts to maintain their hold over captured territory in Kursk, where the Russians are reported to be planning a major counter-offensive.
