The international summit held at a Swiss resort at the weekend was always more likely to mark the start of a process for reaching agreement between Russia and Ukraine, rather than act as a platform for announcing a settlement.
As such, it was expected that Russian President Vladimir Putin would pre-empt the summit by demanding Kyiv’s “surrender” (which he did) while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted on Moscow ending its “occupation” (which he did)
This is the first serious attempt to navigate the long and perilous path toward a solution for a war that has raged on Europe’s eastern border for more than two years.
Almost half the world’s countries and entities participated, but some said they ought to have been joined by representatives of Russia, as the principal party in the conflict, and China, which supports Moscow. The pair are in a standoff against the West.
Battlefield realities
Ukraine’s situation is precarious. Its forces have experienced a series of battlefield setbacks in recent months, a stark contrast to their offensive stance last year. Moscow’s new ground offensive in Kharkiv has had some success.
Kyiv’s forces are exhausted after two years of war. Unlike Russia, with its far larger population, the Ukrainians do not have huge reserves of manpower on which to draw. This will undoubtedly have featured in Putin’s war plans.
Moreover, the delayed arrival of Western military supplies has had an impact. US weapons, so vital in this conflict, were delayed by crucial months due to squabbles between the Democrats and the Republicans over the US-Mexico border.
Although a military aid package has now been approved by Congress, it takes time to reach the battlefield. In the meantime, Ukraine’s position has weakened.
Support from friends
The West has demonstrated unwavering support for Zelensky. Washington has even taken a risk by allowing Ukrainian forces to target Russian territory using US weapons, in a decision that carried several conditions at the end of May.
At the G7 summit, Zelensky received another significant boost: a ten-year security pact with the US, encompassing equipment, training, and intelligence.
Alongside that, major nations have pledged loans totalling $54bn, sourced from $300bn of Russian assets that have been sat frozen in Western countries since February 2022, accruing interest. The loans will be provided by the US, UK, Canada, and Japan.
In Switzerland, the G7’s support for Ukraine has intensified, with members also rejecting Moscow’s pre-conditions.
In their final communiqué, the G7 reaffirmed their commitment to the principles of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine, within their internationally recognised borders, while also emphasising that peace would require the participation and dialogue of all parties involved.
Setting out positions
Zelensky sought to garner support for his comprehensive ten-point plan, addressing various aspects of the conflict, such as food and nuclear security, a ceasefire, prisoner exchanges, and accountability. He also aimed to establish a security structure that would include guarantees for Ukraine.
The Ukrainian president seeks the withdrawal of Russian forces, an end to combat operations, and the restoration of Ukraine-Russia borders as they were prior to 2014.
His plan therefore entails Russia’s complete withdrawal from all occupied territories, including the Crimean Peninsula, annexed in 2014.
