With the Ukraine conflict reaching a critical stage, how the West responds to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request to conduct long-range missile strikes within Russia could prove vital to the conflict’s eventual outcome. For months, Zelensky has been lobbying both the US and Britain, the main providers of long-range missiles to Ukraine’s armed forces, for permission to use them to strike targets deep within Russia.
Zelensky increased the pressure on Washington and London this week when he called on Britain and America to make a “strong decision” by letting him use long-range missiles deep in Russian land. The Ukrainian leader made the public call at a conference on Crimea for international leaders being held in Kyiv on Wednesday.
The weapons have been available to Kyiv for months, but have so far not been used to attack targets within Russia because of restrictions imposed by the US. This includes the use of the UK’s Storm Shadow missiles which have a longer range than the missiles supplied by the US, but are also subjected to Washington’s control because they include American-made components.
The Storm Shadow missiles have a range of about 250km (155 miles), and so far, they have been used only against Russian targets in occupied Ukrainian territory. The missiles are fired from aircraft and have a far greater range than the US-supplied Himars currently used by Ukraine, which only stretch around 50 miles.
Top priority
Zelensky has made it his top diplomatic priority to persuade Western leaders to grant permission for Ukraine to hit air bases and other military sites deep within Russia.
Ukraine also wants the right to use its newly arrived F-16 fighter jets—US-made but supplied by Denmark and the Netherlands and soon by Norway and Belgium—to bomb targets in Russia. Zelensky argues these are defensive weapons since they can knock out Russian missiles and guided aerial bombs and counter pressure on key front lines. That means hitting air bases, logistical nodes, command and control centres, and troop formations.
After two years spent soaking up attacks on its towns and cities, Ukraine wants to take the fight fully into Russia, having already sent its troops across the border into the Kursk region.
The Biden administration’s main objection to using the missiles against targets within Russia stems from concerns that doing so risks escalating the Ukraine conflict into a broader confrontation between Russia and the West. There are signs, though, that the US is seriously considering reevaluating its restrictions on the use of long-range missiles by the Ukrainians following this week’s comments by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Iran is supplying Moscow with ballistic missiles to support its war effort in Ukraine.
Blinken made the comments during a visit to the UK prior to travelling to Kyiv with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy. This is the first time the two countries have mounted a joint diplomatic mission in a decade.
Iran fingerpointing
Blinken accused Iran of supplying short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, saying they could be deployed against Ukrainians within weeks. Lammy described Iran's move as "a significant and dangerous escalation”. The missiles are likely to boost Russia's arsenal, enabling it to hit Ukrainian cities close to Russia's borders or areas it already controls at the same time as it deploys its longer-range missiles deeper into Ukrainian territory. Iran has repeatedly denied supplying such self-guided weapons to Russia.
Separately on Tuesday, the US, UK, France and Germany imposed fresh sanctions on Iran for supplying Russia with ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine. Measures included restrictions on national carrier Iran Air's ability to fly to the UK and Europe—as well as travel bans and asset freezes on a number of Iranians accused of facilitating military support for Russia.
If Russia is able to attack Ukrainian positions with Iranian missiles from Russian territory, then there is a compelling argument in favour of Ukraine, in order to defend itself, being allowed to destroy the missiles on Russian soil.
UK defence officials have indicated that London is in favour of the Storm Shadow missiles being used for this purpose, and British officials are quietly lobbying the Biden administration to lend its approval. The issue has generated divisions in the Biden administration. Senior US security officials are said to favour allowing strikes to take place within Russian territory, while US President Joe Biden remains reluctant to give his approval because of his concerns over escalating the conflict.
Serious consideration
One indication that the US and UK are seriously considering giving Kyiv the necessary approval was the arrival in Kyiv of both Blinken and Lammy. After their talks in London, the two men travelled together to the Ukrainian capital, where Blinken said one of their goals was to "hear directly from the Ukrainian leadership" about their "objectives and what we can do to support those needs".
Ukraine's Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, thanked Lammy for the UK's military support for Ukraine throughout the war.But he added: "We hope that long-range equipment for strikes on the territory of our enemy will be reached and we will have it and we hope for your help and support in this issue."
The policy will come under further scrutiny when UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer meets Biden at the White House on Friday. Asked by reporters on Tuesday if the US would lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons, President Biden said his administration was "working that out now".
Earlier this year, the US loosened some of the restraints, allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike areas along Russia's border where troops are firing from. For its part, the Kremlin has said that Russia would respond "appropriately" if the US were to allow Ukrainian missile strikes on its territory.
During his visit to Kyiv, Lammy explained that Britain and America were "listening" to Ukraine's plea to let it use Storm Shadow missiles deep into Russian territory and said the purpose of his visit with Blinken was to better understand the strategy being proposed by Ukrainian leaders.
Therefore, the decision on whether Ukraine will finally be allowed to use the weapons to attack targets in Russia could prove to be a game-changer in the long-running Ukraine conflict, one that could ultimately turn the tide of the conflict in Kyiv's favour.
