Ukraine could offer clues to Trump's wider foreign policy tack

But just hours later, Putin publicly congratulated Trump on his election win. Speaking at an event in the Russian city of Sochi, the Russian president said that the president-elect was "hounded from all sides" during his first term, calling him a "courageous man". On Ukraine, Putin said Trump's claim that he can help end the war in Ukraine "deserves attention at least".

For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who met with Trump in New York in September to discuss his so-called "victory plan", was quick to offer Trump his congratulations.

"Congratulations to @realDonaldTrump on his impressive election victory! I recall our great meeting with President Trump back in September, when we discussed in detail the Ukraine-US strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine," Zelensky wrote on the social platform X, adding that he admired Trump's "commitment to the 'peace through strength' approach in global affairs."

Just how Trump might approach the vexed issue of ending hostilities in Ukraine, though, is another matter, with the president-elect said to be mulling over a number of competing proposals from his key advisors. Irrespective of which option he takes, one thing is clear—Trump has no intention of maintaining the outgoing Biden administration's open-ended policy of supporting Ukraine "for as long as it takes."

Push for peace talks?

A research paper written by two of his former national security chiefs in May provides insights into how Trump might approach the Ukraine issue. The paper argues that the US should continue to supply weapons to Ukraine, but only if Kyiv takes a serious interest in entering peace talks with Russia.

To coax Russia to the negotiating table, the US and its allies would promise to delay Ukraine's long-standing bid to join the NATO alliance. And while the paper argues that Ukraine has every right to reclaim territory occupied by Russian forces, it says the Ukrainians needed to take a realistic approach to any future negotiations based on the current front lines.

It is unclear whether such a proposal would be acceptable to Ukraine and its NATO allies. Many European leaders have argued that any deal that is seen to reward Russian aggression—i.e. allowing Moscow to retain control over Ukrainian territory—would simply encourage Putin to launch further acts of military provocation in Europe.

Trump's primary interest, though, is to achieve peace and stability by pursuing his "America First" approach to foreign policy challenges. The president-elect has no desire to involve the US in any more costly foreign military interventions, as was evident from the cautious approach he adopted on a variety of national security issues during his first term in the White House.

Critical time

Trump's election victory certainly comes at a critical time for Ukraine, with reports that North Korean troops have been deployed to bolster Russian forces. The latest reports suggest Russia is amassing an estimated 45,000 troops in the Kursk region ahead of a planned offensive to recapture the territory Ukrainian forces captured earlier in the summer.

Western observers believe the Kremlin is attempting to seize control of as much ground as possible ahead of possible future peace talks in a bid to get a better deal in negotiations with Kyiv.

Trump's commitment to his "America First" policy is also likely to have major repercussions for his dealing with other NATO member countries, especially in Europe where he has previously been highly critical of the failure by several major European powers, such as Germany and Italy, to meet their NATO defence spending commitments.

There are even fears that Trump might be inclined to withdraw the US from the 32-nation alliance, a move that could have a profound impact on transatlantic relations. Against this, there is a general recognition that Trump has a point about Europe's reluctance to pay its fair share towards its defence costs, which can be easily remedied by strengthening Europe's ability to defend itself against rival states such as Russia without relying on US support.

Even so, rebuilding Europe's defences to a level where they can compete with Russia's powerful military will not happen overnight. In the meantime, NATO leaders will be paying close attention to Trump's next moves on issues like Ukraine to better understand how his administration intends to deal with the security challenges of the future.