Over the past four decades, Iran has steadily expanded its influence by cementing its control over several Arab capitals through its network of proxy groups. Tehran has led, nurtured, and trained these groups, amplifying their sectarian and separatist tendencies to position itself as a formidable force in the region. During this time, it has threatened the security and stability of neighbouring countries to challenge the United States and Israel and use this as leverage to help it advance its own interests.
This approach is not unique to Iran. Nations often prefer to wage their battles indirectly, using proxies rather than their own military forces to minimise the cost to their own people.
The most important cogs in Iran's proxy network machine have been Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Palestinian movements Hamas and Islamic Jihad. These groups won Iran significant influence in the region, handing it the reins of the Palestinian cause and positioning it as Israel's staunchest adversary. These groups have borne the brunt of the violence, fighting and sacrificing on Tehran's behalf, leaving Iran to reap the political and strategic benefits.
However, since 7 October last year and Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, Israel has dragged Iran out of its comfort zone into the arena of direct conflict. Israel has actively attacked Iran's interests and strategic assets, both in and outside its borders. It dealt Iran massive blows, not only to its personnel but also to its overall morale, when it took out some of the iconic leaders of the so-called "resistance axis". First, Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas's political bureau chief in Tehran. Two months later, it took out Hezbollah's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut's southern suburb of Dahiyeh, shaking Iran's regional strategy to the core.
Reasons for reluctance
Despite having launched two rounds of missile strikes against Israel, Iran appears to be entrenching itself within its borders, relying primarily on its proxy forces and remaining reluctant to engage in a direct war with Israel.
Read more: Direct clashes with Israel puts Iran's survival at risk
