It is sometimes forgotten that Hezbollah was originally founded almost 40 years ago to advance Iran’s strategic interests, not long after the Islamic Republic had established itself following the 1979 revolution. Since its inception, Hezbollah has meticulously followed that strategy, reaping the rewards and bearing the costs. Currently bearing the costs, its future is uncertain. Many of its leaders, weapons, and communications systems have been immobilised.
The region has been shaken to its core since the events of 7 October 2023, and for Iran, the bad news continues, compelling it to reassess its posture and consider alternative solutions to its growing challenges.
Strategy in tatters
Iran’s strategy has had two pillars. The first was safeguarding its borders by growing, training, arming, and organising militias who would then penetrate the political and military structures of states like Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen to establish a foothold. Once ensconced, they would turn their aim on Iran’s regional adversaries or come to the aid of Iran’s regional allies. In part, this strategy is rooted in the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, when Iran was invaded by Iraq, with both sides suffering huge losses.
The second pillar is the protection of Iran’s core interests through a well-trained, well-organised, well-funded military force to deter adversaries—namely the United States and Israel—from attacking its nuclear programme or other key regime interests.
