Direct clashes with Israel puts Iran's survival at risk

Back in April, when Iran launched its first direct missile and drone attack in Israel in response to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Israel undertook a measured response, launching an air strike that destroyed a radar installation on the outskirts of the Iranian city of Isfahan.

But with Israel now having extended its military operations to launch a major offensive against Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon, there are mounting concerns that the Israelis may be planning a far more extensive attack against Iran, with both the country's nuclear and oil installations being potential targets.

The assassination of Nasrallah and his deputies in Lebanon has certainly prompted senior figures within Israel's security establishment to argue that, by removing Hezbollah's leadership, there is an opportunity to reshape the geopolitical balance in the Middle East. As the former head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency said in the wake of Nasrallah's killing, Israel has "an opportunity that must not be missed," one that would be greatly enhanced if the Israelis were to succeed in striking a mortal blow against Iran's Islamic regime. 

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Arab officials believe Israel sent clear messages to Iran that it would respond to any strike on Israeli territory, small or large, regardless of the number of casualties, with its oil and nuclear facilities being likely targets.

Netanyahu is also facing significant internal pressure to mount a decisive strike against Tehran, with former prime minister Naftali Bennett urging his nation to seize the opportunity and wipe out Iran's nuclear capabilities.

"The leadership of Iran, which used to be good at chess, made a terrible mistake this evening," Bennett said on X after Iran's latest missile strikes.

"We must act *now* to destroy Iran's nuclear programme, its central energy facilities, and to fatally cripple this terrorist regime."

The latest escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran certainly places the Iranian leadership in a difficult position, one that could ultimately threaten its future survival. Fears that anti-regime activists could use the crisis to intensify the pressure on the ruling regime were reflected in an instruction issued by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps urging Iranians not to publish pro-Israel posts on social media.

"Any activity supporting the Zionist regime is a crime, and criminals will be dealt with decisively," said a statement issued by the IRGC's intelligence wing early Wednesday in Tehran.

The fact that the Iranian regime is having to caution its citizens not to support Israel, its declared enemy, is an illustration of the intense pressure the regime is now under, a position that the ayatollahs have been desperately seeking to avoid since the 7 October attacks.

Before the assassinations of Haniyeh and Nasrallah, Iran had tried to keep its distance from the conflict between Israel and Iranian-backed proxies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Yemen's Houthi rebels. But the success of Israel's military campaign, especially against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, has left Tehran with no alternative other than to become directly involved—a development that could have significant consequences for the regime's future survival.

Having previously warned that Israel was trying to drag Iran into a direct war, the Iranians felt they had no option but to act following the assassination of Nasrallah—one of Tehran's closest and most influential allies.  A video released by the Revolutionary Guard, which showed the group's commander-in-chief, Hossein Salami, ordering the strikes, set out Iran's justification for launching the attack.

"With the permission of God, and in retaliation for the blood of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and for the violation of the Islamic Republic of Iran's national sovereignty, as well as the recent atrocities committed by this criminal regime in martyring commanders and the great leader of Hezbollah, begin operation True Promise 2."

Iran would prefer to draw a line following the attacks, with officials stating that Iran's missile strikes on Israel were finished, barring further provocation. "Our action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in a post on X early Wednesday.

But that could be wishful thinking on the part of the Iranian regime, as there are many in Israel who see their success against Hezbollah in Lebanon as an opportunity to reshape the Middle East.