Why Turkey is unsettled by Israel’s invasion of Lebanon

Looking at the map, this would include chunks of a number of countries in the region, including Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Turkey, although the exact borders are debated. For days now, an assortment of  analysts, journalists, politicians, retired military leaders, and diplomats have taken to the Turkish airwaves to discuss it.

Supporters of Erdoğan are convinced of a grand scheme that threatens Turkey. Others say he is using it to justify his anti-Israel stance and distract Turks' attention from their economic woes and the high cost of living.

Turks, regardless of political affiliation, are outraged by the loss of life in Gaza and Lebanon and the inability of the international community to stop it, but at the same time, they are wary that their government's hatred of Israeli policy may drag them into a much bigger regional crisis.

Özgür Özel, leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP)—which inflicted a heavy defeat on Erdoğan's AKP in local elections in May 2023—said that if Turkey faced a real threat from Israel, the Turkish Parliament must be convened.

Although AKP and its partner MHP have previously voted down similar CHP proposals to discuss various issues in Parliament, this time they were quick to respond positively.

The Parliament met on 8 October in a special closed session, the foreign and defence ministers briefing the House on the Israeli threat in what the Speaker called a supra-political national issue. Their discussions cannot be made public for ten years. This blanket secrecy suggested that the government intended to share sensitive information about Israeli ambitions towards Turkey, yet Özel later said in a statement that nothing was said that had not been aired on the evening news channels.

Rising tensions

Turkey has a strong army and is a NATO member. Few seriously think that Israel would attack it and claim its territory, yet Turkish officials privately suggest that Israel is supporting armed Kurdish groups in northern Syria that Ankara treats as terrorists.

Israel has not responded to Erdoğan's claims, but the current tensions will most likely have a bearing on future Turkey-Israel relations. Israel's alliance with Greece and Greek Cypriots is also something Turkey is monitoring closely.

Turkey and Azerbaijan have differences in their approach to Israel, given the latter's closeness to Israel in the fields of defence and energy (Baku is a major supplier of oil to Israeli refineries in Haifa and Ashdod, up 28% in 2024 compared to 2023).

Not everything Israel does is contrary to Turkish interests, however. Its targeting of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, for instance, could be helpful—at least to Erdoğan. That is because his Syria policy has been widely criticised in Turkey and has cost him votes. As a result, he has hinted at mending fences with Syria's President al-Assad, with whom he has a fractious and bitter relationship. For his part, al-Assad is playing 'hard to get', however, so while his past defenders (Hezbollah and Iran) are suffering an Israeli onslaught, al-Assad may be more open to normalising relations with Turkey.

Read more: Syria-Turkey normalisation has a long way to go

Regional impact

Israel's battering of the so-called 'Axis of Resistance' is being followed with silent approval by countries that have long been uncomfortable with their policies and ideologies. As such, Israel's campaign is unlikely to turn into a regional Arab-Israeli war.

Still, its protracted course is damaging for all countries in the region. Not only is it a tragic loss of human life and material destruction, but it is also a source of great uncertainty, not least economically, with trade disrupted and investment plans put on hold. Oil prices and global energy markets have remained stable, but this could change in an instant if, for instance, Iran's oil facilities or Israel's natural gas fields are hit or the vital energy route through the Strait of Hormuz is closed.

US support for Israel is "rock solid", as US President Joe Biden puts it, but even he is frustrated with Netanyahu's arrogance and aggressiveness.

Militarily, Israel has eliminated many of its enemies, including top figures in Hamas and Hezbollah, such as Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah. Netanyahu is determined to do as much damage to Iranian interests and influence as possible.

At the time of writing, Israel was yet to hit back against Iran's ballistic missile attack. The nature of that retaliation will affect the global economy and possibly the US election in less than a month's time. Israel and the Biden administration are said to be in discussions, with Iran also in the loop via third-party intermediaries. With Israel preoccupied in Lebanon, the US preoccupied with elections, and Iran not wanting a war, there is a mutual interest in Israel's response being contained.

Israel will soon need to consolidate and realise its battlefield gains, but Netanyahu is hoping that Donald Trump returns to the White House.  At a recent campaign rally in North Carolina, the former president said that Israel should attack Iran's nuclear facilities.

However, if Israel or Iran were to use their weapons of mass destruction, all bets would be off.