Iraqi militias open a cautious front to help Hezbollah

As reported by Al Majalla, Hezbollah has declined the deployment of Iraqi fighters to Lebanon to counter any potential Israeli ground invasion but is keen to activate an Iraqi front to divert Israel's attention. Iran prefers that any Iraqi front have only a limited impact, however. Iraqi factions may yet use Syria to open a Golan Heights front.

A gentle war

Abbas Al-Zaidi—a leader in Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada—has said that Iraq-based attacks are supportive operations for Gaza and Lebanon to relieve pressure on them, adding that it is the United States—not Israel—that is leading the operations in the region. Al-Zaidi said the Iraqi resistance believes in the unity of battlefronts and has studied the capabilities of their Israeli enemy, currently focusing on the northern city of Haifa due to its strategic importance. He said attacks on Haifa would displace its population.

He said Iraqi resistance groups now have more than 100,000 fighters—with others from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and East Asia offering to join the battle against Israel—and that operations would continue until Israel ended the war in Gaza, adding that American bases in Syria would be attacked if the US gave support to Israel.

Iran is apprehensive about activating the Iraqi front, in large part due to Israel's strategic alliance with the US, which maintains military bases in Iraq and exerts influence over Iraqi politics. Iran worries that instability could topple the government of Mohammed Shia' Al-Sudani, whose Iraqi backers have strong ties to Tehran.

Additionally, there are further concerns over the possible imposition of additional sanctions on Iraqi companies and the effect this might have on Iran. According to sources, on his visit to Baghdad, Qaani asked Shiite factions to put aside their differences to support the Al Sudani government, which is in danger of being dissolved after fellow Iraqi politicians made espionage claims against ministers.

Preparing for a response

Baghdad expects Israeli air strikes to soon start targeting Iraq-based militias, according to statements from the influential Coordination Framework, which noted that Iraq was currently unable to defend its airspace. That prompted the government to order the $2.8bn South Korean Cheongung II mid-range surface-to-air missile defence system last week, making Iraq the third Middle Eastern country to order it (Saudi Arabia bought ten missile batteries in February).

Yet the Iraqi government has a problem. At a state level, there has been no decision to involve the country in the conflict between Iran and Israel, nor is one expected. Yet, at a local level, Iraqi factions and militias—some that form part of the state's Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF)—are targeting Israel from Iraqi territory. This has put Baghdad in an awkward position in talks with Western officials, prompting the government to pursue de-escalation efforts to distance it from the tensions.

Baghdad's mixed emotions

Politically, Iraq is deeply divided over the Israel-Iran conflict. Most Sunni and Kurdish groups, along with some Shiite forces, don't want Iraq to get involved, despite the public's opposition to Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon. These same groups are critical of Baghdad's failure to rein in the Iraqi militias targeting American and Western interests at such a delicate time, just as the government pushes for US agreement to withdraw from Iraq over the next two years.

Yet the senior Iraqi cleric Ali al-Sistani, who is a religious leader of the country's Shiite majority, seemed to support the idea of Iraqi resistance by calling for actions to alleviate the suffering of the Lebanese people and to meet their humanitarian needs.

In response, the Iraqi government established a land bridge with Lebanon, delivering tons of food and medical supplies, but Iraqi factions interpreted it as an endorsement of Hezbollah and a call to provide weapons and fighters, not merely aid. This could prompt the recruitment of young Iraqis to join the fight in Lebanon.

Ahmed Abd al-Sada, a media figure close to the militias, said that before October 2023, the Iraqi resistance focused on local issues. Today, it operates with a broader strategic outlook, launching missiles and drones against Israel and US forces in Syria while coordinating with the Houthis in Yemen to strike Western ships in the Red Sea.

For most of the past year, the world's eyes have been on Gaza. Today, all eyes are on Lebanon. In the coming months, Iraq may start making the headlines. Mohammed Shia' Al-Sudani will very much hope that is not the case.