Hamdok-Hemedti deal further complicates Sudan war

The release of 451 prisoners of war — a key part of the agreement at Taqadum's request — remains unfulfilled.

There is still no new humanitarian corridor for aid delivery. Civilians in besieged areas still have their movements restricted. Living conditions in areas under RSF control are still deteriorating. In short, very little has changed.

Clear change has come in one respect, at least: Taqadum's leaders and media outlets now defend the RSF, denying any rights violations by Hemedti's militia and rationalising its failure to meet humanitarian obligations.  

Fighting without meeting

Since it was signed, the RSF has intensified its military operations, expanding into the state of Gadarif and moving towards the River Nile State and the Merowe region.

This continues a trend of military gains. In December, the RSF captured Sudan's second-largest city, Wad Madani. This had been seen as a relatively safe haven, prompting hundreds of thousands of Sudanese to flee there.

However, in recent weeks, there have been reports of summary executions, sexual violence, and looting after RSF fighters entered.

The militia now also controls Naqaa and Musawwarat, an area rich in historical heritage dating back 2,300 years to the Kingdom of Kush and recognised as a World Heritage site by UNESCO.

What is becoming clear is that the RSF is holding Sudan, its people, and its history hostage to fulfil its political objectives and ambitions.

Meanwhile, Taqadum is increasingly providing political justification for the situation, seemingly endorsing the militia's actions and their implications for the country.

Moves to broker a direct meeting between the warring generals hit a snag after a procedural faux pas from IGAD when it invited Hemedti to a summit in Uganda on 18 January.

This caused an outcry because Hemedti is not part of Sudan's recognised government, and IGAD meetings are traditionally limited to officials from member states. Sudan's Foreign Ministry cried foul and suspended its involvement with IGAD.

Expectations for any meeting had already been low because neither side appears eager to talk. Indeed, Sudan's Foreign Ministry could have overlooked IGAD's procedural wrong turn had it held a genuine desire to find a solution.

The lack of resolve on either side to even talk, let alone make compromises, suggests that the conflict may continue for an extended period.

At risk of spreading

The longer the war goes on, the worse the conditions in Sudan become, while the risk of the conflict spreading beyond Sudan grows deeper.

Ethiopia and Somalia are neighbours, and the precarious geopolitics in the Red Sea heightens the potential for tension to spread.

These grave risks are yet to receive the wider international attention they deserve, although there are now signs that this is beginning to change.

The personal envoy of the UN Secretary-General in Sudan, Ramtane Lamamra, a former foreign minister of Algeria, appears to be holding early-stage visits with a wide spectrum of the Sudanese political.

He held talks in Cairo, then Port Sudan and Kampala, but it seems that he has not yet drawn up a strategy to address the situation in Sudan. Attempts to resolve the war have included moves by some politicians to exert undue influence and set pre-emptive agendas.

Taqadum leader Yasir Arman was critical about meetings with Lamamra in Port Sudan, casting doubts on their potential to foster a balanced approach. Arman even cautioned Lamamra against proceeding, predicting their failure.

Seeking to dominate the civil discourse is a tactic previously used by Taqadum leaders and, before that, the Forces of Freedom and Change Alliance.

African Union action       

In January, the African Union established a new high-level committee dedicated to monitoring the situation in Sudan.

This committee was appointed by Moussa Faki, the outgoing chairman of the African Union Commission, and Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the African Union's high representative for silencing the guns, was chosen as its chairman.

It also includes Speciosa Kazibwe, the former vice president of Uganda, and Francisco Madeira, who previously held the position of Special Representative of the Chairperson of the African Commission in Somalia.

Interestingly, the committee does not feature any current or former presidents, in contrast to past African Union mechanisms, like the committee for Sudan and South Sudan, which former South African President Thabo Mbeki led alongside members like Nigerian President Obasanjo.

There are other offers. South Sudan's President Salva Kiir Mayardit has invited Sudanese political parties to convene in Juba in what seems to be an effort to rally civil forces around a united platform aimed at ending the war.

But making any progress will be challenging, given that the war has created such a deep divide among Sudan's political elite.

Furthermore, the lack of coordination among the various peace efforts reduces the chance of any of them making headway.

Throughout all these endless meetings about meetings, the fighting continues, and people suffer. Civilians are still being killed, injured, and/or displaced.

Across Sudan, they look for signs of a resolution, glimmers of hope. For now, peace appears to have left the building.