Politics

Why Putin is in no rush to negotiate end to Ukraine war

The biggest threat Zelensky faces in his quest to liberate Ukraine comes from his allies in the West, who increasingly suffer from war fatigue.

Eduardo Ramon

The deep divisions within British politics in 2024 suggest it will add to the instability of the Western alliance as it grapples with major challenges from mass migration to the Ukraine war.

Why Putin is in no rush to negotiate end to Ukraine war

Con Coughlin

last update on 10 Jan 2024

London: When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the objective was to seize control of the country within three days, overthrow the government and establish a new, pro-Kremlin regime.

To achieve this, Russia assembled an estimated 200,000-strong force around Ukraine’s borders to participate in the largest attack on a European country since the Second World War.

And yet, into the war’s second anniversary in 2024, Moscow’s prospects of achieving its initial aims remain as remote as ever. Far from completing the conquest of Ukraine, Russia’s military effort has become bogged down in a costly war of attrition, with neither side appearing capable of achieving a decisive breakthrough.

On the contrary, with both sides sustaining significant casualties in terms of men and equipment, the Ukraine war seems set to become just another of the world’s “frozen” conflicts, especially as neither Moscow nor Ukraine’s wartime leader, President Volodymyr Zelensky, have shown much appetite for entering peace negotiations.

The longer-running conflict between Russia and Ukraine will, after all, mark its tenth anniversary in 2024, after Russian forces launched their initial assault to capture Crimea and large tracts of eastern Ukraine in the spring of 2014.

Since then, both sides have been involved in a relentless and bloody campaign for control of the disputed territories, one that ultimately led to Putin’s decision to launch his ambitious plan to seize control of Ukraine in its entirety in 2022 with his so-called “special military operation”.

But as the invasion’s second anniversary looms, neither side seems willing to compromise, even though, for different reasons, both leaders are under pressure to do so.

War fatigue sets in

The biggest threat Zelensky faces in his quest to liberate every inch of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory comes from his allies in the West. They increasingly suffer from war fatigue despite providing Kyiv with the weaponry required to sustain the military effort against Russia.

Eduardo Ramon

The willingness, moreover, of key Western leaders to maintain their support for Zelensky has been undermined by Israel's war on Gaza which broke out in October 2023 and has understandably diverted world attention away from Ukraine.

The biggest threat Zelensky faces in his quest to liberate every inch of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory comes from his allies in the West. They increasingly suffer from war fatigue.

In Washington, the Biden administration had already been under pressure to reassess its support for the Ukrainian cause long before Israel's war on Gaza.

While US President Joe Biden has continued to insist that he will support Ukraine for "as long as it takes", his approach has been constantly undermined by Congress, where a growing number of Republicans and Democrats have expressed misgivings about Washington's "blank cheque" approach to providing aid to Kyiv.

As the 2024 US Presidential election campaign gets underway, Biden will not want the Ukraine crisis to develop into a key political issue, prompting his administration to intensify the pressure on Zelensky to consider options for ending the conflict.

The aid for Ukraine debate has already become a partisan issue, with Republican voters being urged to share the scepticism shown by former US President Donald Trump, their party's likeliest nominee for president next year, who openly questions why Washington should continue to provide further aid to Ukraine. Democrats, by contrast, remain broadly supportive.

Another factor that will directly impact Ukraine's ability to continue fighting will be the ability of Kyiv's Western allies to sustain arms shipments at the same level as before. As Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO's most senior military official, told the Warsaw Security Forum in October, Western military powers were running out of ammunition to Ukraine to the extent that "the bottom of the barrel is now visible".

Russian advantages

The weapons shortages experienced in the West are not shared by Russia, which has been far more willing to invest heavily in its war effort, with military spending accounting for almost 40% of the national budget.

Putin's ability, moreover, to place the Russian economy on war footing has been reinforced by his decision at the end of 2023 to increase the size of the Russian military by a further 170,000 troops, significantly increasing their numerical advantage over their Ukrainian opponents.

Another significant advantage Russia enjoys over Ukraine is the deepening divisions within Europe over its support for Ukraine.

Olaf Scholz, Germany's chancellor, has faced constant pressure from within his own ruling coalition to ease support for Kyiv, to the extent that in December 2023, the German tabloid Bild reported that Berlin was working with Washington on a "secret" German-American plan to force Ukraine into peace talks with Moscow by scaling back weapons deliveries to Kyiv.

Eduardo Ramon

The weapons shortages experienced in the West are not shared by Russia, which has been far more willing to invest heavily in its war effort, with military spending accounting for almost 40% of the national budget.

Putin stalls for a better deal

Any attempt in 2024 by the West to force Ukraine to negotiate an end to hostilities would certainly benefit Russia, where Putin has little intention of making any significant territorial concessions to Kyiv.

Having revived Russia's military fortunes in Ukraine towards the end of 2023, Putin will have little interest in engaging in meaningful peace talks until the outcome of the US presidential election contest, as he believes he is more likely to get a better deal if Trump is re-elected president.

The only significant pressure Putin will be under to end the war will be from Russian critics of the conflict, especially families of the estimated 200,000 Russian battlefield casualties, who are keen to avoid yet further bloodshed.

He might also come under pressure to negotiate if there is a sharp downturn in the Russian economy. Still, so far, the Kremlin has managed to withstand the impact of international sanctions imposed over his invasion of Ukraine.

With Western support for Ukraine in decline, Putin will want to continue Russia's military campaign for as long as possible, especially as the longer the war proceeds, the greater the divisions are likely to appear within the Western alliance.

This is particularly true among member states of the European Union, which, apart from having significant differences of opinion over the bloc's continued support for Ukraine, are also struggling to forge a united front on the vexed issue of illegal migration, one that promises to cause even greater friction in 2024.

Any attempt in 2024 by the West to force Ukraine to negotiate an end to hostilities would certainly benefit Russia, where Putin has little intention of making any significant territorial concessions to Kyiv.

Migration woes

Migration has become a highly divisive issue in many EU countries during the past decade, with opinion polls showing that the overwhelming majority of Europeans are opposed to the massive flow of illegal migrants making their way to the continent, with the majority arriving in southern Europe from North Africa. With a rapidly declining population, most European nations are in dire need of a steady flow of migrants to sustain their economic growth.

The European Union's population is projected to fall from a peak of 453 million in 2026 to 420 million at the end of the century. By that point, its working-age population will have shrunk to 50% of the total, down from 59%.

A steady flow of migrants is essential to the economic well-being of most EU states. Yet, public opinion remains opposed to the large influx of migrants to their countries, especially the hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants making their way into Europe. In 2023, it was estimated that 250,000 illegal migrants had arrived in the EU.

Reuters — Refugees arrive on a boat to British shores.

In October 2023, the 27 EU member states finally managed to agree on a new immigration and asylum approach to tackle the crisis, with the aim of introducing new legislation to tackle illegal immigration.

Nonetheless, the issue continues to exacerbate the divisions among EU states that have arisen over Ukraine and other matters, such as the cost-of-living crisis and abortion. There are well-grounded fears that these tensions could present complex challenges for the European Commission in the year ahead.

The recent elections in Poland and Slovakia, for example, saw a growth in support for populist-nationalist populist parties, which threatened to further strain the EU's fragile unity on Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Hungary's anti-immigration leader, Viktor Orban, has also accused the EU of attempting to force a new migration pact on EU member states. In contrast, the strong showing achieved by Dutch populist leader Geert Wilders in his country's November elections was blamed on mounting public disquiet on the migration issue.

Migration is likely to take centre stage as an issue in the UK's upcoming general election, which is due to take place in 2024.

Immigration has been credited as one of the key factors that resulted in British voters opting for Brexit in the country's controversial 2016 referendum, and while the UK is no longer a member of the EU, migration remains a highly controversial issue, one that could ultimately force British prime minister Rishi Sunak out of office.

At the end of 2023, on the back of soaring migration figures, Home Secretary James Cleverly announced a five-point plan to slash migration levels and curb abuse of the immigration system, delivering the biggest-ever reduction in net migration. Together, this package will mean around 300,000 people who came to the UK last year will now not be able to come.

But the deep divisions over the issue among senior Conservative ministers were reflected when immigration minister Robert Jenrick dramatically resigned in December last year, claiming the government's proposals would not achieve the desired result of curbing immigration.

Under the plans proposed by the UK government, from spring 2024, the earning threshold for overseas workers will increase by nearly 50% from its current position of £26,200 to £38,700, encouraging businesses to look to British talent first and invest in their workforce, helping to deter employers from over-relying on migration, whilst bringing salaries in line with the average full-time wages for these types of jobs.

The deep divisions within British politics in 2024 suggest it will add to the instability of the Western alliance as it grapples with major challenges from mass migration to the Ukraine war.

The new migration plan was drawn up after official figures in November 2023 showed net migration to the UK had risen to a record 745,000 in 2022, which resulted in Conservative MPs intensifying the pressure on Sunak and his government to bring down net migration— the difference between those entering and leaving the UK.

AFP — Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks during a press conference in the Downing Street Briefing Room in central London on March 7, 2023, following the announcement of the on the Illegal Migration Bill.

The government will also increase the minimum income required for British citizens and those settled in the UK who want their family members to join them. Altogether, this reinforces that all those who want to work and live here must be able to support themselves, contribute to the economy, and not burden the state.

The sharp increase certainly represents a huge political challenge for Sunak and the Conservatives, who have repeatedly promised to reduce net migration since winning power in 2010 and "take back control" of the UK's borders since the Brexit vote.

The party's 2019 election manifesto committed to getting the number down without setting a specific target, while David Cameron once pledged to bring net migration below 100,000 when he was prime minister.

Labour's shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, said the announcement was "an admission of years of Tory failure on both the immigration system and the economy", and Labour has warned that the Government's new immigration rules could lead to a "big increase in rushed marriages" in the months before they take effect. But challenging the Conservative record is the easy part for its political opponents.

Labour expects to be in government within a year. The deep divisions within British politics in 2024 suggest it will add to the instability of the Western alliance as it grapples with major challenges from mass migration to the Ukraine war.

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