Trump might win, and US foreign policy will likely change

In addition, Trump will not be able to focus on the election campaign in 2024. He is accused of felony crimes in four different courts. The first trials begin in March, with another about his illegally keeping secret documents after leaving the Oval Office, due to start in May. Another case about his election interference in Georgia is awaiting a trial date.

Remarkably, his political base remains loyal. The trials will hover in the background throughout 2024, but the cases are too complicated for an American public that insists on easy, one-sentence answers to all questions.

Contradictions and arguments among the deeply divided American media will aggravate public confusion and, ultimately, disinterest.

Fortunately for Trump, it is unlikely that after initial judgements and appeals, none of the court cases will reach the end until after the November 2024 election. And especially after the January 2021 attack on the Capitol building, there will be constant worry about new political violence.

Possible surprises

In fact, the Democrats are lucky that Trump is likely to gain the nomination of the Republican Party for the 2024 presidential election. Other Republican candidates, notably former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley are stronger against Biden than Trump, according to opinion surveys.

Here is the first possible political surprise: maybe Haley will win the Republican primary election in New Hampshire in February 2024. New Hampshire is a small state where voters meet candidates in small forums or at popular cheap restaurants.

Trump is not very good at this kind of small-scale politics, but Haley excels. Slowly, she has improved her standing against the former president among Republican voters and is starting to receive larger money donations — integral to a successful campaign.

If she beats Trump in a surprise victory in the New Hampshire primary, many Republicans will welcome an alternative candidate who does not have Trump's legal problems, does not have his high negative survey numbers, and would be strong against Biden. Trump would not quit, but there would be hard competition inside the Republican Party, which would help Biden.

There is another surprise to watch for: presidential candidates from outside the Democratic and Republican parties. One candidate, the nephew of former President John Kennedy, Robert Kennedy Junior, has attracted some attention with his Kennedy name. However, his political views are far from those of his uncle and father, former senator Robert Kennedy.

Like many conservative Republicans, he denounced COVID-19 vaccinations as a government conspiracy and rejects any controls on gun ownership. Opinion surveys suggest that Kennedy might take a few per cent of Trump's votes, which could be vital in a close election in November.

Meanwhile, another political movement is slowly forming that will hurt Biden. A group of centrist Republicans and Democrats are building a party that they call "No Labels" to win votes from citizens tired of both the Republican and Democratic parties.

Again, even one per cent of votes can change the outcome of key states' elections. The Democratic Party is furiously trying to convince the No Labels not to enter the presidential campaign and risk another Trump victory. By early spring 2024, we should see the new party's decision.

Biden and careful foreign policy

Domestic political challenges will influence Biden's foreign policy in 2024. He will aim to convince American voters that he is the leader of most of the world on important issues, while at the same time, he will avoid big new foreign adventures, including a major war.

He will stress American leadership of alliances that generate multinational military and economic cooperation against common threats, including against America's geostrategic competitors, China and Russia. Biden will be careful on new military commitments but will not want to appear weak.

Therefore, he will continue to support Ukraine strongly and not pressure Kyiv publicly to negotiate with President Putin.

Biden's balancing was visible when he met China's President Xi in San Francisco in November: he spoke tough in public but also achieved an agreement to reduce Chinese exports of fentanyl — a drug causing widespread addiction and social problems in America.

Biden will also stress wide cooperation on climate change, an issue that appeals primarily to younger voters whose enthusiasm he needs for his campaign. He will continue a policy of careful competition and cooperation on global issues.

With this framework, Biden will not make major changes in his Middle East policy in the fourth year of his term. He will try to bring a long-lasting end to the fighting in Gaza, but he will avoid a big public argument with the Israeli government.

It will be difficult for Biden to convince the Republican Party or even some Democrats to provide billions of dollars to rebuild Gaza. Therefore, his administration will highlight these efforts to persuade Arab Americans to forget Biden's support for Israel's military campaign and support Biden again.

Security in Gaza in 2024 will be another big challenge. If Israel occupies the territory and does little for displaced Palestinians, anger from the Arab American community and the American far left against Biden will not diminish.

If Israel withdraws, the American public will be hesitant to send American soldiers to enforce peace in Gaza. With US politics, it would be impossible to put American soldiers under the command of the United Nations. Thus, Washington would prefer that some international organisations undertake the security mission in Gaza.

Of course, Israel will have strong opinions on this security force, and Biden again will be very careful about publicly opposing Israel — especially in an election year. Biden will need help from the forces of Arab states that have diplomatic relations with Israel to make any progress on Gaza in 2024.

Beyond Gaza, do not expect the Biden administration to launch a new initiative for a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians in 2024 or a new Biden administration. Biden is not the Democrat to do that.

Meanwhile, Biden will carefully balance his approach to Iran. He won't withdraw troops from Syria and Iraq, and he will order occasional strikes against Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq to deter Iran from bigger attacks against the small American forces there.

His red line will not change: killing American soldiers will provoke harsh retaliation. American domestic politics would demand this response. The risk — as the White House knows — is that Washington might cross an Iranian red line in its retaliation, and the situation could escalate despite Biden's desire to deter Iran rather than fight a war with the country.

At the same time, Biden will hope that Iran accepts to continue the de-facto agreement whereby Iran does not further advance its progress towards a nuclear weapon, while Washington ignores Iranian oil shipments to Asia, especially China.

However, the Biden administration increasingly accepts, quietly, that Iran remains on the threshold of the capability to develop nuclear weapons.

American foreign policy under Trump

The bigger change in Washington's 2025 agenda comes if Trump shocks half the country and returns to the Oval Office despite his continuing serious legal problems. If those problems leave him enough time to focus on foreign policy, he will not directly launch a war against Iran unless his advisors convince him that the war will end quickly.

Instead, a new Trump administration will redouble efforts to undermine Iran's economy and the government's legitimacy. The American Navy might seize Iranian shipments of oil to China.

Mike Pompeo, who maintained good relations with Trump, likely would return in an important role – perhaps as Secretary of Defence. This new Trump team would shun the Palestinians and instead seek to consolidate relations with Gulf states — both to press for normalisation of relations with Israel and to increase cooperation to contain — and ultimately undermine — Iran.

Trump is also more likely to withdraw American forces from Syria and Iraq as the extreme right among the Republican party wants to do. And, of course, a new Trump administration will not be favourable to welcoming refugees, especially Muslim refugees, as well as immigrants from around the world.

The changes Trump brings to American policy in the Middle East will be important, but the changes in other parts of the world will be greater. He would try to promote a deal between Ukraine and Russia whose terms would satisfy President Putin and likely cause great difficulty with President Zelensky.

Biden improved relations with Europe, but Trump is likely to create major problems with many European states.

Meanwhile, we will have to watch how Trump will approach Asia and problems like Taiwan, the South China Sea and competition with China. Trump, by nature, likes to make big agreements. How would he look for grand deals with China and perhaps North Korea?

While we can have a good sense of where Biden will likely go in 2024 and beyond, with Trump, I prefer the Arabic expression: 'Allahu alim', or God knows best.