Politics

A Middle East war motivated by destructive politics

Gulf countries develop strategies to reverse the destructive and dangerous role that escalation plays in the Gaza war

John MACDOUGALL / AFP

Smoke rising above buildings during Israeli strikes on the northern part of the Gaza Strip on November 22, 2023

A Middle East war motivated by destructive politics

Lina Khatib

last update on 23 Nov 2023

A new Middle East is emerging. This is not the same as the new Middle East that American neoconservatives were claiming to be creating in the run up to the invasion of Iraq in 2003 or during the war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. This is a new Middle East that is rising from within, not imposed by outside powers. Its newness is not about changing forms of governance but about the implementation of a long-term economic, social, and political vision that is shifting the balance of power in international relations.

Steering this new Middle East are Arab countries in the Gulf, which are undergoing a remarkable transformation on all those fronts and increasingly asserting their geopolitical and economic weight.

It’s high time for the United States and the international community to acknowledge this emerging reality and adjust their engagement with the Middle East accordingly.

There is growing awareness across the Middle East that stability and prosperity in the Gulf is in the interest of all Arab countries, especially at a time when so many of those counties, from Egypt to Lebanon and elsewhere, are struggling economically. Last month, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia held the 7th Future Investment Initiative conference. The conference is hosted by the Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, and attracts the world’s biggest economic heavy hitters who have been flocking to Saudi Arabia to broker large-scale investment and construction deals.

While these international corporations see in Saudi Arabia an immense profit-making opportunity, the Kingdom’s partnerships with them are also about getting them to invest in Saudi Arabia. This investment is part of Saudi Arabia’s strategy to meet its economic goals. Economic growth in Saudi Arabia in turn means increased opportunities for companies and individuals from the rest of the Arab world.

International economic investment in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries in the Gulf also means that international corporations will not want to see their investment threatened by instability. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Arab Gulf countries have been going to great lengths to protect their economic paths from political turbulence in the region. Some outside observers have criticized Gulf countries that have gone ahead with hosting large international economic, sporting, and cultural events while wars elsewhere in the region rage. But it would not make sense for those Gulf countries to put their national economic interests and goals on hold in this context.

It would not make sense for those Gulf countries to put their national economic interests and goals on hold in this context.

On the contrary, the more economic weight Gulf countries can gain, the bigger players they become on the international stage and the more they can protect themselves from regional conflict spillovers and be able to use their growth to support stabilization outside their borders.

The vision that those countries present is one of construction. It is not just about the physical construction of cities and facilities. It is also about the construction of a skilled economic workforce. Examples are the process of Saudization in the private sector and state investment in the education of young people. Construction is additionally about the creation of a professional public sector and the strengthening of the diplomatic infrastructure. All those processes are happening simultaneously.

It's about geopolitical pragmatism

Parallel to them is increased geopolitical assertiveness and pragmatism. Different Arab countries in the Gulf are pursuing distinct national interests. The UAE and Bahrain have signed the Abraham Accords when other countries in the Gulf have not, and Qatar has not normalized relations with Syria while most other Arab countries have. These variations are not an illustration of divisions but rather of how geopolitics is about pragmatism rather than the pursuit of wholesale alignment among Arab countries.

Getty Images — The Abraham Accords signing ceremony event on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Sept. 15, 2020

This approach applies to Gulf country relationships with China. China has been more active and involved in the Gulf region in recent years both economically and politically. Its role as guarantor of the bilateral diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran is one example.

Another is its hosting of ministers from the Arab and Islamic world for a meeting to discuss ending the war between Hamas and Israel. But this increased interaction between Arab Gulf countries and China does not mean that the former are moving away from partnership with the United States in favor of another camp. Rather, it is an example of the rise of minilateralism in the global political landscape.

SPA — Saudi Foreign Affairs Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan (C-R) walking alongside former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (C-L) in Beijing on April 6, 2023

The strategy of de-escalation

Gulf countries are also compartmentalizing their various relationships. The UAE's political deal with Israel is active at the same time as continuing trade relations between the UAE and Iran. Saudi Arabia has restored diplomatic relations with Iran. Meanwhile, Iran continues to support militant groups creating instability in the region, like the Houthis in Yemen. Compartmentalization is not hypocrisy. It is another example of political pragmatism. This is particularly important in relation to the role of Iran in the Middle East.

Since 1979, Iran has been one of the region's persistent causes of instability. It has consistently pursued its objective of achieving regional influence by support militant groups which have been threatening stability in the countries where they operate but also outside of those countries' borders. Iran's vision is the complete opposite to that of the Arab countries whose vision is one of construction. Iran's vision is built on destruction.

Ahikam SERI / AFP — Israeli tanks roll along a street during a military operation in the northern Gaza Strip

They are coordinating with one another on particular political issues regardless of their overall political stances, as seen in the recent engagement between Qatar and Bahrain as part of the effort to end the Hamas-Israel war. This kind of mature political behavior is alarming to Iran.

In their maintenance or restoration of divergent strands of economic and political engagement with Iran, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are seeking de-escalation so that Iran's destructive behavior can be contained. Unlike its Arab neighbors, Iran does not see in the strengthening of the economic and political stature of Saudi Arabia or other Gulf countries an advantage for itself. Nor does it benefit from peace prevailing in the Middle East. On the contrary, Iran feeds off ongoing grievances.

That is why it is ultimately not in Iran's interest to see Arab countries normalizing relations with Israel or for the Palestine-Israel conflict to be resolved. Resolving the conflict would remove a huge part of the framework that Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah or even the Houthis use to claim legitimacy for themselves both locally and in the region.

Such groups frequently pay lip service to the Palestinian cause in their pursuit of power. The Houthis' recent seizing of a cargo ship they said is Israel-linked is an example of this charade.

Reuters — Egypt's President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi meets with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Cairo, November 10, 2023

On the other side of the Gulf are Arab countries that are increasingly active and assertive on the geopolitical stage. They are striving to stop Iran's ambitions from getting in the way of achieving their economic, social, and political transformation goals.

They are coordinating with one another on particular political issues regardless of their overall political stances, as seen in the recent engagement between Qatar and Bahrain as part of the effort to end the Hamas-Israel war.

This kind of mature political behavior is alarming to Iran, which now finds itself unequipped to respond except with its stale tools of proxies and empty rhetoric about "resistance".

Destruction-leaning Iran is one of the hurdles standing in the way of construction-leading Arab Gulf countries. The US and the international community at large need to adjust their approaches to those countries in acknowledgement of this new reality. This involves not just strengthening links with those leading positive transformations in the Middle East but also helping them avert threats to the stability of the region.

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