Israel's war on Gaza could set tone for Egypt-Iran ties
Egypt's worst fears seem to be materialising as Iranian-backed militant groups have stepped up attacks on Israel and US assets in the region.
Majalla
Egyptian officials have been talking to Iran since Israel's war on Gaza began earlier this month and warning of potentially catastrophic consequences for the region should the conflict expand.
Israel's war on Gaza could set tone for Egypt-Iran ties
Egypt is reportedly trying to convince Iran to refrain from adding fuel to the fire over Israel's war on Gaza, warning that the war could expand to the wider region.
In talks over the phone with his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, on 23 October, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry highlighted the dangers inherent in widening the scope of the war.
He warned that this could destabilise the region, and the ramifications could not be predicted.
The talks between the Egyptian and Iranian foreign ministers came at a time when Cairo was partially losing contact with the leadership of the Gaza-ruling Hamas, especially inside Gaza, with Israel's continual bombardment of the Palestinian territory and as the self-proclaimed Jewish state unhooks Gaza from the rest of the world.
Together with Qatar, Egypt has been instrumental in securing the release of two elderly Israeli women from captivity in Gaza late on 23 October.
Nevertheless, current Israeli attacks on Gaza are constraining the populous Arab country's communication with the leaders of Hamas on the ground.
In talks over the phone with his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, on 23 October, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry highlighted the dangers inherent in widening the scope of the war.
Worst fears
Nonetheless, Egypt's worst fears — namely, the war in Gaza expanding — seem to be materialising.
The Lebanese Hezbollah group is jumping into the frying pan, targeting Israeli army positions in northern Israel and exchanging fire with the Israeli army several times in the past few days.
Lebanese soldiers and bystanders stand on a road overlooking the border area with the northern Israeli town of Metulla on October 8, 2023, after Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel said they traded cross-border fire.
The Houthi militia in Yemen is launching missile attacks against Israel and vowing to defend the people of Gaza.
US troops are also coming under attack in Iraq and Syria, with expectations that attacks on these troops and US bases in these two countries will ramp up in the coming period.
"The war is expanding already, especially when it comes to current exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel," political science professor at Cairo University, Dalal Mahmud, said,
"Hezbollah's involvement in the conflict will serve the interests of Israel, which wants to prove that it is coming under attack from everybody," Mahmud told Al Majalla.
"This is very dangerous, especially if Israel opens a front against Hezbollah, not only in Lebanon but also Syria," she added.
Without directly accusing Iran, Egypt knows that it pulls the strings. The groups at the forefront of this escalation in the aforementioned countries are all known to be Iranian proxies, fighting Tehran's wars. They are the Islamic Republic's tool to expand its influence in the region and control one regional capital after another.
This is why Cairo is talking directly to Tehran, a straight-out talk that comes hard on the heels of preparations by the two capitals to normalise their relations after years of apathy and scepticism, which were powered by their ideological differences and what was viewed in Cairo as Iran's bellicose regional policies, especially towards fellow Arab states in the Arabian peninsula.
Israel's onslaught on Gaza, the worsening humanitarian conditions of the Palestinian territory's civilian population and fears of the war spilling out of control have led to intensified contacts between Egyptian and Iranian officials.
The 23 October talks between the Egyptian and the Iranian foreign ministers were just their second in less than two weeks.
However, what happens next will undoubtedly determine whether Egyptian and Iranian interests will converge, not diverge, in the future.
"Egypt is ready to talk to anybody to end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza," Mahmud said. "This applies to Iran, particularly if it has influence on Hamas or in Gaza."
Despite Egyptian attempts to contain the conflict, its worst fears — namely, the war in Gaza expanding — seem to be materialising. Iran-backed proxy militias have attacked Israel and US assets in the region.
Economic devastation
Egypt hopes it can, at best, play a role in ending the current war in Gaza and, at worst, confine this war to the boundaries of the blockaded coastal enclave.
Any expansion of this war would devastate the region, including Egypt, which shares borders with Gaza and Israel.
Egyptian tour operators are reporting massive cancellations by foreign tourists who planned to vacation in Egypt's different tourist destinations, with regional tensions rising and some countries advising their nationals against travel to the region.
Tourists wait to ride pleasure boats before sunset, in the village Gharb Soheil, on the west bank of the Nile river in the southern Egyptian city of Aswan, Egypt March 8, 2023.
These cancellations are coming just when local tourist establishments are getting ready for an influx of foreign tourists as part of the new tourist season, which usually starts in October and ends in April.
The tourism sector is a pillar of the Egyptian economy, contributing approximately 12% of Egypt's gross domestic product and employing around 9.5% of the workforce of 27 million.
Egypt hopes it can, at best, play a role in ending the current war in Gaza and, at worst, confine this war to the boundaries of the blockaded coastal enclave. Any expansion of this war would devastate the region, including Egypt, which shares borders with Gaza and Israel.
Threat to global maritime trade
Meanwhile, if the Iran-backed Houthi militia, which occupies large swaths of Yemen, becomes part of the war, it may be emboldened to stage attacks against ships navigating the Bab el-Mandab Strait or the southern entrance of the Red Sea on the way to or from the Suez Canal.
Apart from endangering the international economy, with almost 12% of global trade passing through the canal, attacks against vessels in the Red Sea can force maritime shipping companies to seek alternative routes, which will deal a devastating blow to the Egyptian economy, especially with Egypt increasingly depending on revenues from the canal.
This comes as Egypt grapples with its own stifling economic crisis, initially induced by Covid-19 and then exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
Apart from endangering the international economy, with almost 12% of global trade passing through the Suez Canal, attacks against vessels in the Red Sea can force maritime shipping companies to seek alternative routes, which will devastate the Egyptian economy.
Security risks
An expanded and protracted war will not only be devastating for the Egyptian economy but also harmful to Egypt's security.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi issued a stern warning expressing his absolute rejection of any plan to transfer the Palestinian population of Gaza to the Sinai.
He said if Israel thinks the population needs to be transferred to complete its mission against Hamas, they should be moved to the Negev Desert inside Israel until Israel finishes its mission.
El-Sisi even warned during a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that the relocation of the residents of Gaza into Sinai would turn this Egyptian territory into a launch pad for attacks against Israel, which would threaten Egypt's peace deal with Israel.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (L) addresses a press conference with Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cario on October 18, 2023.
An escalation of regional tensions could also give rise to new extremist groups or revive old ones, especially in Sinai. These groups could stage attacks against Israel which would also put a strain on the peace treaty between the two countries.
El-Sisi even warned that the relocation of the residents of Gaza into Sinai would turn this Egyptian territory into a launch pad for attacks against Israel, threatening Egypt's peace deal with Israel.
Earlier this year, Egypt declared the defeat of a branch of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria in Sinai after ten years of fighting, an achievement the Egyptian army and police paid dearly to make.
To prevent a backlash from the war in Gaza, Egypt has been exhaustively working to ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid to the blockaded population of the Palestinian territory.
Dozens of trucks, carrying essential supplies, including food, water, medicines and medical supplies, have already entered Gaza from the Rafah crossing on the border between Sinai and Gaza, under supervision from the United Nations and in the light of understandings with the United States and Israel.
Trucks carrying humanitarian aid from Egyptian NGOs for Palestinians wait for the reopening of the Rafah crossing on the Egyptian side, to enter Gaza.
However, these trucks are a drop in an ocean of needs, especially with Israel cutting off food, fuel, water and electricity to Gaza.
Together with other Arab countries, the Egyptian government lobbies strongly for a ceasefire that gives diplomacy a chance to revive peace talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis on the road to establishing a Palestinian state on the borders of 1967 and with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Talks with Iran also fall within all these efforts, but given the potentially catastrophic consequences that the region faces, Cairo might find it difficult to see eye to eye with regional or international powers that aggravate the current conflict in Gaza, observers in Cairo said.
"The sure thing is that Egypt will think twice before restoring its relations with Iran if the Islamic Republic contributes to expanding the current war in Gaza," Gamal Salama, a professor of political science at Suez University, told Al Majalla.
"Iran's position towards the situation in Gaza will play a major role in determining the course of Egypt's interaction with it in the future," he added.
