Why India’s G20 summit may shake up the world order

The United States

Biden has proactively pursued and nurtured a series of alliances aimed at containing China and limiting Russia's influence. In June Modi received an enthusiastic reception in both Congress and the White House. He walked away with commitments to military cooperation.

Biden also hosted leaders from Japan and South Korea at Camp David in August, with the goal of defusing tensions between the two Asian neighbours and encouraging discussions on collaboration over military technology, especially missiles.

The US has also set up a new alliance alongside Australia and the United Kingdom (AUKUS), designed to develop a new generation of nuclear-powered submarines.

Washington has also revived the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) by cooperating with Japan, India, and Australia. The administration also inked agreements with the Philippines and other nations to conduct joint military exercises and station strategic military units. These moves are taking place smack-dab in China's geopolitical backyard.

In Europe, along the borders of Russia, the Biden administration has leveraged the conflict in Ukraine to reinvigorate Nato and expand its influence to encompass Finland and Sweden.

Additionally, the US has also provided Ukraine with extensive military support. It recently agreed to provide Kyiv with F-16 fighter jets, upping the ante in the ongoing war and further dimming the prospects of a Russian victory.

China

China's President Xi Jinping has also been active, seeking to strengthen his country's alliances in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

After brokering an agreement to restore diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Xi spearheaded an initiative to expand the BRICS bloc of nations, which currently includes China, Russia, South Africa, India, and Brazil.

At the recent summit in South Africa in August, six countries were invited to join the group: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran, Argentina, and Ethiopia. This expansion would give Brics a larger role in the international arena — particularly in the economic field.

India

The summit's host seems to be taking a more cautious approach in the run-up to the potentially pivotal summit.

In July, Modi hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in India. He has also been courted by Biden, receiving a standing ovation at the White House and Congress. China's Xi has also courted him, while Putin is betting on India's neutrality in the war in Ukraine.

Different focuses

America's alliances are heavily built around militarisation, while China's alliances are focused on economics and trade. The competition between the two countries has evolved to feature a weave of overlapping alliances.

The G20 group — which includes Saudi Arabia—  is the only forum that brings major powers together with fast-rising regional countries taking up increasingly global roles.

While Xi and Modi have been active on the world stage, Putin has been largely absent. He did not attend the Brics summit in Johannesburg in person and will not be at the G20 summit in New Delhi,  in a symbolic blow to his authority.

Two moonshots and a general election

Xi used the Brics summit to consolidate his power, while Modi used the G20 summit to position India as a rising power. Biden is now focused on his own domestic priorities into the 2024 presidential election.

The flurry of geopolitical diplomacy going into the G20 meeting shows how the rivalry between the US and China is growing more pronounced, while Russia seems to be increasingly marginalised.

Russia's failed moon mission came shortly before India successfully landed in the moon's south pole which is symbolic of Moscow's diminishing global influence and standing.