Masoud Barzani: the quiet victor

The elevation of Iraqi Kurdistan leadership shows Washington's shifting calculations in both Syria and the greater region

Masoud Barzani: the quiet victor

During armed clashes between the Syrian army and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and subsequent negotiations between President Ahmed al-Sharaa and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, attention centred on maps of control, security arrangements, spheres of influence, and the terms of partnership. Behind the noise, however, a quiet victor was moving forward with deliberate, measured steps: Masoud Barzani.

Barzani’s growing influence on the Syrian scene was not a stroke of luck but the culmination of years of political groundwork that positioned him as an acceptable intermediary to all stakeholders—from Damascus to the SDF to Ankara and Washington. At a time when competing interests collide, Erbil has emerged as a rare point of convergence with Barzani behind the wheel.

The first clear sign of this shift was the willingness of the multiple parties to accept the mediation role he assumed, including hosting undisclosed meetings and managing sensitive contacts. It was hardly incidental that Erbil hosted talks between Mazloum Abdi and Tom Barrack, the special envoy of President Donald Trump, alongside US officials. The message was clear: Iraq's Kurdistan Region has become the preferred venue for shaping the fate of Syria’s northeast.

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On the ground, Barzani’s portraits and Kurdistan flags are being raised in parts of northeastern Syria, long saturated with images of Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), symbolising a kind of change of guard and ultimately a change in direction for a significant segment of Syrian Kurds.

This change was reinforced through the work of charitable organisations linked to the Kurdistan Region and to Masoud Barzani, which have become a principal conduit for aid distribution. In a setting marked by acute economic hardship, this kind of soft power can go a long way.

The Semalka border crossing has remained the vital artery connecting SDF-held areas to the outside world, giving Erbil a practical lever in any future settlement and making coordination with the region a daily necessity rather than a political option.

Barzani's growing influence on the Syrian scene is not a stroke of luck but the culmination of years of political groundwork that positioned him as an acceptable intermediary to all stakeholders

As the US military footprint in Syria and Iraq proper shrinks, beginning with a pullback from the Al-Tanf base, as well as installations in Iraq such as Ain al-Asad, American bases in Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan) carry greater weight. This elevation of Iraqi Kurdistan leadership shows Washington's shifting calculations.

Politically, any path that curbs the influence of the PKK's leaders inside Syria clears space for a stronger rise of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which presents itself as a less confrontational actor in the region and more amenable to understandings with Türkiye and the West.

Rocky road ahead

However, Barzani still has his work cut out for him. Syria's internal balances remain fragile, international understandings can shift quickly, and rivalry within the Kurdish political sphere is always simmering on the back burner. His widening role will be closely watched in Damascus and Ankara, and will be sure to stir unease in some Syrian Kurdish sectors.

But as things stand now, Erbil looks to be reaping the rewards of its expanded role. For his part, Barzani seems intent on keeping a low profile and not flaunting his newfound influence. While he may not always command the headlines, he is present in the fine print of understandings and the routes that lead to them.

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