Narendra Modi: From humble tea trader to courted global statesman

Undoubtedly the high point of the visit for Modi was his invitation to address the US Congress, where he received a standing ovation —quite a remarkable turnaround for a politician who only 20 years earlier had been banned from setting foot in the US.

Both Biden and Modi used the occasion to stress the importance of the ties between their respective countries.

While Biden described the alliance between the US and India as "one of the defining relationships of the 21st century", Modi told Congress that the friendship would be "instrumental in enhancing the strength of the whole world". He added that a "new chapter" had been added to the two countries' comprehensive and global-strategic partnership.

The visit ended with Washington agreeing to a multi-billion dollar arms package with Delhi for US fighter jet engines and SeaGuardian drones.

The West's new-found enthusiasm for India

The new-found enthusiasm of Western leaders to improve ties with Delhi was also very much in evidence the following month when the Indian premier was invited by French President Emmanuel Macron to attend the annual Bastille Day celebrations in Paris.

Modi and Macron watched as French and Indian soldiers marched down the tree-lined Champs-Elysees avenue in Paris, while French-made Rafale fighter jets India bought in 2015 took part in a fly-past over the Arc de Triomphe. 

Macron marked the visit by awarding Modi the Legion of Honour, France's highest award, declaring that India was  "a giant in the history of the world which will have a determining role in our future. It is also a strategic partner and a friend."

As with Modi's visit to Washington, the trip ended with another multi-billion dollar arms deal, with France agreeing to provide the Indian military with an extra 26 Rafale jets for its navy and three Scorpene class submarines, deepening defence ties with Paris at a time the two nations are seeking allies in the Indo-Pacific. The total value of the purchases is expected to be around 800 billion rupees ($9.75 bn).

This sudden desire on the part of Western leaders to befriend the Indian leader has not been prompted by any significant change to his domestic nationalist agenda.

Repression toward Muslims continues

On the contrary, human rights organisations continue to highlight the Indian government's repressive conduct towards the country's estimated 200 million Muslim population. Indeed, it was only two years ago that the US lifted the ban it had imposed as a result of the Gujarati violence in 2002.

A recent example of the Modi government's aggressive stance towards India's Muslim population was highlighted in 2019 when it announced that it was suspending Article 370 of the constitution, which grants autonomy to Kashmir, India's only Muslim-majority state.

The provision was initially drafted to help preserve the state's religious and ethnic identity and prohibited members of India's Hindu majority from settling in the region.

Modi defended the action, claiming the decision would help Kashmiris by spurring economic development. To ensure the policy worked, Modi flooded Kashmir with troops and detained hundreds of prominent Muslims.

Yet, such is the enthusiasm among Western leaders to deepen ties with Delhi, that they are prepared to overlook Modi's pro-Hindu nationalist instincts. Consequently, human rights concerns have been set aside in favour of securing India's allegiance.

Evolving geopolitical landscape

A key factor in this sudden rush to befriend India has been the dramatic shift in the global geo-political landscape that has taken place in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year.

Prior to the eruption of the Ukraine conflict in February last year, India had maintained a close relationship with Moscow, one that was motivated by Delhi's long-standing rivalry with Communist China.

Relations between China and India, which share a contested 2,100-long border, have never been easy, so much so that in 1962 the two countries fought a 30-day war over contested territory in the Himalayas, which resulted in the Indian military suffering a humiliating defeat.

Keen to avoid a recurrence, the Indians have worked hard to develop close ties with Russia, which also has a history of territorial disputes with China, to prevent further conflicts with Beijing.

Until Russia invaded Ukraine, India's close ties with Moscow made it difficult for Western leaders to improve ties with Delhi.

Even now, at a time when Moscow has attracted widespread international condemnation over its conduct in Ukraine, Modi has declined to publicly criticise the Kremlin for its action, instead advising Russian President Vladimir Putin that "today's era is not of war" and encouraging Putin to "move onto a path of peace."

Delhi reviewing its close relationship with Moscow

There can be little doubt, though, that the Russian invasion has prompted Delhi to undertake a serious review of its global posture, not least because the conflict has exposed glaring deficiencies in Russia's military prowess which, given Delhi's historic reliance on Russian weapons, has become a major cause of concern for Modi.

Not only have the limitations of India's ageing fleet of Russian-built fighter jets been exposed, but Moscow's understandable preoccupation with the Ukraine conflict has left it unable to perform vital maintenance work.

At a time when China is investing heavily in developing its military strength as it seeks to surpass the US as the world's pre-eminent power, Russia's declining value as an ally has prompted Modi to explore the possibility of acquiring new alliances, which explains the Indian leader's sudden surge of interest in visiting Western capitals where, until very recently, he presence was not welcome.

Modi's charm offensive towards the West is very much in keeping with his vision of India becoming a major world power, one where he enjoys the status of a global statesman capable of acting as an international power broker.

Indeed, ever since Modi was first elected Prime Minister in 2014, his emphasis has been on developing what he calls the "New India", a country with genuine global reach.

From humble tea trader to global statesman

The Indian leader's bold vision for India certainly stands in stark contrast to his humble origins.

Born in 1950 into the low-ranking Ghanchi caste, whose members traditionally sell vegetable oil, Modi's father ran a small tea shop near the train station, where his young son helped.

When Modi was 13, his parents arranged for him to marry a local girl, but they cohabited only briefly, and he did not publicly acknowledge the relationship for many years.

As a teenager, Modi developed a keen interest in politics and became a member of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a right-wing Hindu nationalist paramilitary volunteer organisation. In 1985, the RSS assigned him to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which espoused a similar nationalist agenda.

At the time he joined, the party had only two seats in parliament, but its weak position enabled Modi to forge his own path, ousting opponents one by one until he was appointed chief minister of Gujarat in 2001.

Since then he has proved his political credentials by winning three elections, campaigning on his claim that he has provided consistent economic growth in the state. 

When Modi began his run for Prime Minister in the fall of 2013, he did so not by presenting himself as a crusading nationalist but as on his track record of providing an economic boom in Gujarat, adopting the campaign's slogan "The good days are coming."

His reputation for providing sound economic growth resulted in many of India's largest businesses flooding his campaign with contributions.

Modi's rise to power was undoubtedly helped by the overwhelming public perception that the establishment Congress Party, which had been in power for most of the past half-century, had grown arrogant and corrupt.

Bulwark to China's increasing dominance

While Modi's efforts to expand the Indian economy by making the country a global manufacturing powerhouse have achieved mixed results, it is India's position as a potential bulwark to China's increasing dominance in the Indo-Pacific region that is now making Delhi the focus of so much global interest. 

It is Modi's good fortune, moreover, that his diplomatic drive to improve ties with the West comes at a time when Western leaders are keen to develop new alliances to counter the mounting threat posed by China's military power.

The formation of the new Aukus pact, comprising the US, UK and Australia, to build a new generation of nuclear submarines for the Australian navy was inspired by the desire of Western leaders to build a new network of global alliances aimed at tackling the challenge China presents to regional security.

Renewed Western interest in India, therefore, needs to be seen in the context of deepening defence ties with the world's most populous country — a move that may prove problematic given India's historic reliance on Moscow for arms.

Russia has supplied India with around $13bn of arms in the past five years, making it the world's biggest buyer of Russian arms, accounting for around 20% of Moscow's current order book.

But with Russia's war in Ukraine severely denting Moscow's ability to deliver weapons and equipment, Western leaders believe they have an opportunity to end Delhi's reliance on Russian arms by offering the Indians access to more sophisticated Western technology.

Delhi's primary strategic objective, after all, is defending itself from the military threat posed by neighbouring China. But India's ability to match China's military build-up will be seriously compromised if it is unable to gain access to the spares and other equipment it requires to maintain its fleet of Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30 and MiG-29 warplanes, which is the situation at present as Russian arms manufacturers struggle to support the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

India is also awaiting delivery of the remaining two of the five Russian S-400 air defence systems India bought for nearly $5.5bn in 2018.

For the moment, Modi is trying to perform a delicate balancing act, one where he maintains India's historic ties with Moscow while at the same time making new alliances with Western powers, such as the US and France.

But if Moscow proves unable to maintain its military support for Delhi, then Modi will have no alternative but to accelerate India's diplomatic tilt towards the West.