Ethiopia

Landlocked Ethiopia says sovereign access to the Red Sea is an 'existential' issue, and its troops are now massing on the border with its smaller neighbour, Eritrea. What next?

The leaders of Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Eritrea met in Alamein on Sunday, which some interpret as a formation of a loose security alliance aimed at influencing the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa

While many would like to see Addis Ababa distracted, they also worry about a refugee spillover should a civil war break out. It might be a case of 'be careful what you wish for'

Cairo has sharpened its rhetoric, believing Addis Ababa is more interested in using the Nile as a weapon than for electricity generation

Both the government in Addis Ababa and armed Tigrayan independence fighters have their supporters, from as near as next door to as far away as Tel Aviv

The US wants to revive talks on Ethiopia's Nile dam, but another strategic contest between Addis Ababa and Cairo has emerged in the Red Sea, which could complicate reconciliation efforts

For Addis Ababa, using Djibouti's port for trade is not enough; it wants its own sovereign access to international waters. However, this first needs the consent of suspicious neighbours.

Cairo hopes that by helping the Americans establish relations with Egyptian allies in the region, it will be better placed to deal with the threats posed by Addis Ababa

The regional rivals aren't just fighting over freshwater supplies. Cairo sees Addis Ababa's bid for Red Sea access as part of a wider fragmentation strategy.

Is Washington's intention genuine, or an attempt to slam the brakes on Cairo's growing assertiveness in Horn of Africa politics and debilitate its hard-won leverage?