There is growing concern that the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over Addis Ababa’s plans for a dam on the Nile could escalate. It comes after Cairo sent military hardware and 10,000 troops to neighbouring Somalia, highlighting the deepening tensions between two historic rivals that share a vital water source.
The presence of the troops constitutes a potential security threat for Ethiopia, as well as a blow to its sense of national prestige.
Ethiopia is one of the main powers in the region, reflecting its size and geographical position as well as its large population and its military capability. It also has a history of geopolitical tension with its neighbours, especially Eritrea.
However, the arrival of the troops represents a change in the nature of the clash between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Nile basin. Over 80% of the Nile's water originates in Ethiopia. That means it is seen in the region as the country that can, in effect, restrict the water supply downstream from this vital river.
The prospect of it doing exactly that is raised as it completes its ambitious plan to build the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a multi-billion dollar hydroelectric facility with a reservoir the size of the Greater London area.
Read more: Ethiopia pushes Egypt into tight corner after Nile dam talks collapse
Now, Egypt’s decision to send troops to Somalia has come as a blow to the sense of national pride instilled by the GERD project. Cairo has been at loggerheads with Addis Ababa ever since January when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland.
The agreement gives the landlocked country a foothold on the breakaway region’s Red Sea coast in return for Ethiopia recognising its claim of independence from Somalia.
Cairo’s official framing of its move to send troops and military hardware to Somalia downplays the decision. But it has boots on the ground at the centre of the Horn of Africa. This serves strategic and security objectives. They are being discussed – and welcomed in back channels – across much of the wider region.
Presidential pledge
Egypt's dispatch of troops, including commando units and military equipment, to Somalia is rooted in a common defence pact that was reached between Cairo and Mogadishu in mid-August. It followed Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland and added to Egypt’s concern over a potential Ethiopian presence near the Gulf of Aden.
In January, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said his country would always be ready to defend Somalia, an East African country that is a member of the Arab League.
The pledge comes as Egypt also seeks a central role in ensuring peace and security in Africa. Cairo-based strategists believe that wider security and stability across the continent boost Egypt’s national security and open up a more prosperous future for Africans.
Mohamed al-Shazly, a former assistant to the Egyptian foreign minister, told Al Majalla that "Egypt's national security is inseparable from the security and stability of its region", adding:
"Somalia's location makes it strongly matter to Egyptian national security, especially in the presence of Egyptian fears from a spill-over effect of the situation in the country on the international maritime movement in the Red Sea," he added.
At this complex time for international diplomacy, Egypt will take over the presidency of the African Union's Peace and Security Council in October.
Analysts in Cairo say this puts Egypt in a position of responsibility towards the countries of the continent, especially where unrest can affect its own national security.
Africa is now front and centre
The feeling of responsibility marks a complete departure from Egyptian policies before the 2011 revolution in the Arab country. Then, relations with fellow African states took a back seat, especially after the June 1995 attempt on the life of the then-president, Hosni Mubarak, in Addis Ababa.
Nevertheless, as Egypt turns its attention back to its home continent, it is doing so in an area where it has a competitive advantage: security and infrastructure.
Read more: Egypt takes back the lead in Africa politics
Egypt has developed expertise in security and wider applications in the region. After a decade of fighting against a branch of the Islamic State (IS) terror group in Sinai, Egypt’s north-eastern territory, which shares borders with Israel and the Gaza Strip, where it has dealt with guerrilla warfare.
Cairo has signalled this means it can help the Somali army fend off the threat posed by the al-Qaeda-leaning al-Shabaab movement, which has been a significant security challenge for Mogadishu since 2006.
In terms of infrastructure, Egypt is using its experience to help it win major contracts across Africa. Egyptian firms construct dams, build roads and flyovers and dig irrigation canals in several African states, demonstrating ambitions to take a share of the continent's infrastructure and development market, competing with fierce rivals, including China.
Defence pact and maritime tensions
Almost half of the Egyptian troops sent to Somalia will replace thousands of Ethiopian soldiers formerly part of an African Union peacekeeping mission in the country. And Egypt will also reportedly participate in securing the Somali coast with naval forces from Turkey, another country that hammered out a common defence pact with Mogadishu.
Somalia's Red Sea coast is another area of interest for Egypt, amid its alarm at Ethiopia's move to gain a foothold there. Egypt views Ethiopia's desire for access to Somalia's coast with suspicion amid growing animosity between the countries.
Read more: Why Ethiopia's Red Sea ambitions unnerve Egypt
It also comes at a critical time for the international maritime traffic in the area because of the war in Gaza and the recurrent Houthi attacks on vessels crossing the Gulf Aden or along the Yemeni coast.
Speaking to Al Majalla, the independent national security expert, Gen. Mohamed Abdel Wahed, said: "There are credible fears over Ethiopia's ambitions in the region, particularly when it comes to its desire to have a presence on the Red Sea, given its hostility with its neighbours over the years.
"This is why Egypt does not trust Ethiopian intentions".
Cost of Red Sea tensions
Unrest in the Red Sea is costing Egypt dearly, with the cash-strapped Arab nation losing around $550mn a month because of Houthi attacks and decisions by international maritime lines to scrap the Suez Canal for other routes.
Egypt also has a long-term plan to transform the Suez Canal into an international investment hub as well as a maritime passageway. It has already invested billions of dollars in digging a parallel channel to the canal to allow two-way traffic for the first time in the canal's history, Egypt is also constructing industrial zones and giant fuel warehouses in the area.
It hopes to attract tens of billions of dollars in investments to it and make it an international ship-refuelling and service centre.
Read more: Is Egypt's plan to make the Suez a dual waterway feasible?
Experts say all these plans can be easily threatened if geopolitical turmoil continues or worsens in the area. Ethiopia's presence on the Red Sea coast may make that more likely, they add.
Big dam row
Egypt is betting that its military presence near the Ethiopian border may succeed, whereas diplomacy failed to get its neighbour to properly address concerns over water supply from the dam in the Nile.
Cairo says it has negotiated with Ethiopia in good faith since 2014 to ensure that GERD would not compromise its primary source of fresh water. However, it believes that Ethiopia used the negotiations only to buy time until it completed the construction and filling of the dam, which has the capacity to store tens of billions of cubic metres of water in its reservoir.
And so Egypt is now trying other means to deter Addis Ababa from stopping the flow of the river.
Tarek Fahmi, a political science professor at Cairo University, told Al Majalla that: "Egypt is repositioning itself at the centre of and reshaping its strategies towards the Horn of Africa, an area of extreme importance for it."
"In this, it aims to send clear messages of deterrence to Ethiopia and international forces that may think they can harm Egyptian national security".
Egypt's deployment came only days after Ethiopia completed the fifth and final filling of its GERD reservoir.
Almost half of the military force sent to Somalia will reportedly be used to train the Somali army, which will likely turn into a permanent military presence there.
That will add to Egypt's defence cooperation agreements in the past years with Ethiopia's neighbouring countries, which include Kenya and Eritrea.
