Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s objection to Washington supplying Türkiye with F-35 fighter jets went far beyond a dispute over an arms deal. US President Donald Trump’s praise for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the NATO Summit in Ankara this month carried greater significance than routine diplomatic courtesy and will have irked Netanyahu considerably.
Türkiye and Israel have entered a new phase of regional rivalry. Syria, which lies between them, has therefore become its foremost arena. For decades during the Syrian Assad regime, Iran was the principal foreign sponsor and meddler. Now Türkiye has influence in Damascus, where once Tehran held court. Has Türkiye become ‘the new Iran’ in Syria? The comparison may strike many as provocative, yet it does no less than reflect a profound shift in Israeli strategic thinking.
With Iran and its once-powerful Lebanese proxy Hezbollah both weakened, and with the Assad regime an increasingly distant memory, Türkiye has emerged as Israel’s ‘new enemy’ in the region. Under Assad, Syria served as an arena of confrontation between Tel Aviv and Tehran, while Ankara remained preoccupied with Kurds in northern Syria. Today, it is not Tel Aviv and Tehran facing off in Syria, but Tel Aviv and Ankara.
Different interests
Neither side seeks war, which they know would be extremely costly, but neither looks like backing down. Trump, who considers himself close to both Netanyahu and Erdoğan, does not want two of his closest Middle East allies to fight, but the Turks and the Israelis have very different interests in Syria, which both see as a strategically vital neighbour.
Türkiye’s security begins with the stability, unity, and territorial integrity of the Syrian state, and with preventing a Kurdish entity along its southern frontier. Economically, Türkiye sees Syria as a gateway to integration, a corridor for energy and trade, and a way of reshaping its regional influence. Erdoğan has supported the new Syrian administration led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa from an early stage, building a deep and multifaceted partnership with Damascus.
