Can NATO survive the US-Iran war?

The UK and France said on Monday they would stay out of Trump's plan to blockade Iranian ports, in a move likely to anger Trump and increase strains in the alliance.

Al Majalla

Can NATO survive the US-Iran war?

NATO allies said on Monday they would not get involved in US President Donald Trump's plan to blockade Iranian ports, ​proposing to intervene only once fighting ends, in a move likely to anger Trump and increase strains in the alliance.

"We're not supporting the blockade," British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told the BBC.

"My decision has been very clear, that whatever the pressure, ​and there's been some considerable pressure, we're not getting dragged into the war," he said.

Meanwhile, France will organise a conference with Britain and other countries to create a multinational mission to restore navigation in the strait, French President Emmanuel Macron said on X on Monday.

"This strictly defensive mission, distinct from the belligerents, will be deployed as soon as the situation allows," Macron said.

For his part, Trump claims to have inflicted the greatest ever defeat upon the Islamic Republic of Iran, with the US-Israeli war that began on 28 February in a tenuous pause at the time of writing. Despite the extensive damage caused to Iran’s military and civilian infrastructure by the heavy American and Israeli bombing, which will take years to rebuild, things did not go according to plan for Trump. Not only did Iran not surrender, but it fought back fiercely.

America took hits. On 3 April, an F-15 fighter jet was shot down over Iran. Both crewmen were ultimately rescued, but two helicopters involved in the recovery mission were struck by Iranian fire, as were two A-10 Thunderbolt aircraft, both of which were lost. On the same day, a Chinook helicopter was destroyed on the ground in Kuwait. On 5 April, two C-130 Hercules four-engine turboprop military transport aircraft were destroyed in Iran. These aircraft had been involved in the search for the missing airmen.

Three other F-15s were lost to ‘friendly fire’ in Kuwait early in the war. Likewise, on 12 March, a KC-135 refuelling tanker crashed, while another had to make an emergency landing. A day later, five more were damaged at a US base in Saudi Arabia. On 19 March, an advanced F-35 fighter was hit by Iranian ground fire and had to make an emergency landing for the first time. The pilot was treated for injuries.

On 23 March, a US Black Hawk helicopter was hit by a drone at Baghdad Airport. On 27 March, an Iranian attack on a US airbase in Saudi Arabia left several American aircraft damaged and 29 personnel injured. One of the aircraft blown up was an E-3 Sentry, used for early warning, surveillance, command and control, and communications. To date, the United States’ equipment losses—including more than a dozen unmanned aerial vehicles—have been estimated at around $1bn.

Reuters
Oil tankers sail near the Strait of Hormuz off Ras Al Khaimah amid regional tensions, on 11 March 2026.

Hitting out

Economically, the costs have been far higher, with shipments through the Strait of Hormuz halted except for authorised vessels. In a sign of frustration, Trump fired several generals last week, including the Army’s Chief of Staff, Gen. Randy George, alongside Gen. David Hodne, who led the Army’s training command, and Maj. Gen. William Green Jr, who led the Army Chaplaincy.

Diplomatically, Trump has been at war with allies, notably the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which has formed the backbone of defence across the Western world for 80 years. When NATO allies appeared reluctant to help him reopen the Strait of Hormuz after he waged war on Iran without consulting them, he threatened to leave the alliance. Some analysts say this has drastically undermined trust in NATO’s Article 5, which says an attack on one member is an attack on all, committing the whole alliance to assist.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed his disappointment that NATO allies had not granted the US access to their airspace and military bases during the conflict, adding that this warranted a fresh look at the alliance once the war against Iran was over. “NATO cannot be based solely on a mission to defend Europe,” he said.

Trump described the alliance as a “paper tiger” and publicly mocked both French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. For his part, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez openly opposed the US-Israeli war, calling it illegal, closed Spanish airspace to the US Air Force and refused permission for the US to use its military bases of Morón and Rota for attacks on Iran. In response, Trump threatened to end all trade with Spain.

We're not supporting the blockade. Whatever the pressure, ​and there's been some considerable pressure, we're not getting dragged into the war.

UK Premier Keir Starmer

Disdain for alliances

Trump's disdain for alliances simply reflects how he sees international organisations in general. The US has already withdrawn from UNESCO and the UN Human Rights Council and is set to withdraw from a further 30 or so UN-affiliated entities, as Trump and officials in his administration describe the UN as "useless" and "out-of-date", even though the United States is one of five permanent members of the all-powerful UN Security Council, alongside Russia, China, the UK, and France. 

Having said that, Trump doesn't have the authority to withdraw the US from NATO without the approval of a two-thirds majority in the Senate. 

Getty
President Harry Truman signs the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Pact on 24 August 1949.

The birth of NATO

Having defeated Nazi Germany and facing the threat of Soviet expansionism, the US, Canada, and Western Europe joined forces to create NATO in 1949. Ever since, it has grown, playing a major role in protecting its members and preventing the Cold War from escalating into a new global war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, when NATO emerged victorious from the Cold War, some said it was no longer needed, but they were quickly proved wrong.

NATO adapted, preserving its relevance, deriving its strength from unity and deterrence, but Trump took shots at it during his first term, accusing other NATO members of freeloading. For years, there has been a battle to get European member states to increase their defence spending as a proportion of GDP. Last year, at the Hague Summit, members agreed to aim for 5%, achieved over time.

What next?

Russia's war in Ukraine both motivated and focused the minds of the NATO members, who had been upset when Trump began his second term by threatening to seize Greenland, a sovereign territory of a NATO ally, Denmark. His policies regarding Russia, the war in Ukraine, and the future defence of Europe led to further rifts within the alliance, and over recent weeks, his criticisms of NATO have reached another level, threatening to withdraw.

Russia, China, and others are following these developments with interest. The NATO Summit in Türkiye on 7-8 July 2026 will therefore be even more significant. Some have suggested that it could be postponed if the war against Iran continues. If Trump goes, what will he say? The meeting of Foreign Ministers in Helsingborg, Sweden, on 21-22 May 2026, will give a clue.

No member state has ever left NATO, but some have withdrawn from its military structure (France in 1966 and Greece in 1980), only to return a few years later. The US could follow suit, but that is unlikely because of the impact such a move would have on an alliance that remains a fixture of America's global security approach.

Looking ahead, NATO may need to adapt to stay in America's good graces. Washington could propose reviewing the current consensus-based decision-making mechanism and establishing a provision for mutual assistance among allies, even for non-NATO military operations. Normally, NATO would be able to weather the storm stirred by Trump, but if his views about NATO spread among American politicians, will his successor tread a different path? In this most dangerous of moments, nothing seems certain.

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