Donald Trump’s first year of his second presidential term has been a roller coaster of twists and turns both at home and abroad—particularly in the Middle East. His regional focus was driven by two main factors: first, Trump’s own ego and sense of possible place in history; and second, the volatile, dynamic events driven by actors in the region.
Trump heralds the 2020 Abraham Accords and his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, including the 2020 strike that killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, as two of the top foreign policy achievements of his first term. In the whirlwind of Trump’s grand ambitions for the world—including ending the Ukraine war, reshaping America’s economic links to nearly every country, and implementing the harshest immigration policies in decades— the Middle East continues to figure prominently. Trump’s Abraham Accords left a mark on Middle East history during his first presidency, and he wants to cement that legacy in his second term.
But apart from his personal ambitions, regional dynamics have also compelled him to act. This is not uncommon for US presidents, who often find themselves getting involved in the region more than they originally wanted or planned. Every US president has had his “Michael Corleone” moment—the character in the third Godfather movie who fatalistically says, “Just when I thought I was out, I get pulled back in.”
Lending credence to this argument is the fact that many of Trump’s actions in 2025 were actually reactions to plays run by Israel—it unilaterally ended the ceasefire with Hamas in March, struck Iran in June, and bombed Doha amidst negotiations with Hamas. Aside from Israel, Trump also responded to a series of unexpected events inside Syria following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, just before he assumed office.
This quick trip down memory lane of the past year offers clues about what we could expect from the most unpredictable leader in America’s history in 2026. “Past performance is not indicative of future results”—the clause that financial services firms are required by US law to remind their clients that anything could happen to their investments—is certainly applicable to Trump. But knowing how he operates and what he did last year could still offer clues about what he might do this year. Here. I offer three general observations of Trump’s approach last year.
Shock and awe statements
A core part of Trump’s personality is making controversial statements intended to “shock and awe” and keep him in the spotlight. Remember in the first weeks of his 2025 presidency when he said that the US would ‘own Gaza’ and suggested neighbouring countries take in Palestinians? A year later, and that is no longer the plan, if it ever was. But it did have its intended effect of shocking other people and countries into action.
