Israeli actions in southern Syria give Iran an opening

A region in flux

Since al-Assad fled to Russia a year ago, southern Syria has undergone a series of transformations, beginning when official opposition forces in the south announced their integration into the new Syrian Ministry of Defence, led by Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra. These changes included the restructuring of the region's security apparatus and an intensified campaign against the production and trafficking of narcotics, a trade previously dominated by al-Assad's brother's Fourth Division, as well as militias backed by Iran.

A notable moment was the unrest between the Bedouin and Druze communities in Sweida in July. Druze leader Sheikh Al-Hijri and several military factions refused to recognise the authority of the Syrian government and called for Israeli support, which came in the form of Israeli airstrikes after violent clashes. Israeli strike targets included the Hayat al Arkan building, the Ministry of Defence, and parts of the Presidential Palace in Damascus.

Since those clashes, southern Syria's challenges have remained complex. The Syrian government, despite deploying significant forces and resources, has been unable to establish full control over the region, while factions in Sweida have grown more organised, culminating in the formation of a local Military Council.

Israeli forces continue to expand their presence, conducting arrests in new areas. At the same time, Islamic State (IS) terrorists are trying to re-establish a foothold in the Yarmouk Basin, while Iran-affiliated militias want to revive and reorganise their networks under the banner of resistance.

Several meetings have taken place between the Syrian government and Israeli representatives outside Syrian territory with Turkish-American coordination. Arab mediators have also offered to help break the deadlock. Although Damascus is willing to revive a security agreement with Israel, Tel Aviv appears disinterested in such a limited arrangement. Instead, it wants a broader and more ambitious peace agreement that would compel Syria to formally recognise the Golan Heights as Israeli territory. This seems to cross a Syrian red line.

Foreign states in Syria

Damascus has repeatedly affirmed that Syrian territory will not be used to threaten any state, including Israel, but has shown no interest in pursuing deeper relations. Amid the diplomatic melee, Russia has waded in. Seizing on a political vacuum and the current stalemate, Moscow has offered to mediate to de-escalate tensions.

Among Russia's proposals was the establishment of monitoring points and the deployment of patrols in southern Syria. On 16 November, a Russian military-security delegation led by Deputy Defence Minister Yunus Bek Yevkurov visited Damascus to meet Syrian Defence Minister Marhaf Abu Qusra. Among their discussion points was the situation in southern Syria.

The talks were followed by a joint Syrian-Russian patrol through several areas in Daraa and Quneitra, covering both the northern and southern Quneitra countryside, Al-Safra barracks south of the town of Al-Maallaqa, the Abu Darwish military outpost, the wider Yarmouk Basin, and the towns of Jamla, Kuwaya and Maaria. Through such steps, the Syrian government seeks to shape a new reality in the south and to increase international pressure on Israel.

So far, Tel Aviv has shown no willingness to engage with the proposed mediation efforts. Instead, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited troops in the buffer zone in Syria on 19 November. While there, he said: "We attach immense importance to our capability here, both defensive and offensive, safeguarding our Druze allies and especially safeguarding the State of Israel and its northern border opposite the Golan Heights."

His visit coincided with Israel's public broadcaster suggesting that negotiations between Israel and Syria over a security agreement had reached an impasse. Israel reportedly wants a comprehensive peace agreement before it will withdraw its troops, rejecting the notion of settling for a security arrangement alone.

Breach of sovereignty

Syria's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Netanyahu's visit was "a new attempt to impose a de facto situation that contradicts relevant UN Security Council resolutions". It also called for "the withdrawal of the Israeli occupation from Syrian lands", asserting that Israel's actions in the south are "null and void and carry no legal effect under international law".

The incident in Beit Jinn indicates that Israel's conduct in southern Syria is taking increasingly dangerous turns and risks spiralling out of control. The confrontation also resulted in injuries to Israeli troops. According to Israeli news outlet Walla, senior military officials are investigating whether the operation was leaked in advance.

Najat Rochdi, Deputy Special Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Syria, said Israeli actions constituted "a grave and unacceptable breach of Syrian sovereignty". On 2 December, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution calling on Israel to fully withdraw from the Syrian Golan Heights to the lines that existed before 4 June 1967, after a wave of Arab condemnation over the latest Israeli incursion into Syria.

On 1 December, Barrack met President Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani in Damascus to discuss a range of issues, including Syria-Israel relations and the urgent need to de-escalate. The same day, Trump called Netanyahu to stress the same. The US is increasingly concerned about Israeli policy in Syria.

Search for stability

According to informed sources, Washington fears that its conduct in Beit Jinn could be repeated in other areas, potentially jeopardising US interests in Syria. Israeli military intervention exposes severe security vulnerabilities in the south, disrupts efforts by the Syrian government to restore stability, and gives Iran more freedom to manoeuvre.

Washington's support for stability in Syria brings significant regional and international benefits, not only for the US and Syria but for regional states, and compounds Iran's strategic setbacks, which Trump seemed to acknowledge in a social media post, writing: "It is very important that Israel maintains a strong and true dialogue with Syria, and that nothing takes place that will interfere with Syria's evolution into a prosperous state."

He affirmed that the US was satisfied with the results achieved in Syria, which was interpreted as support for Damascus in the face of Israeli military pressure. On 2 December, Netanyahu said Tel Aviv expects Syria to establish a demilitarised buffer zone from Damascus to the existing buffer zone, including the entrances and summit of Mt. Hermon. He added that "with goodwill," Syria and Israel could reach an agreement, but stressed: "We will adhere to our principles in any case."

Spotting an opportunity

Amidst the turmoil, the Islamic Resistance in Syria, Uli al-Bass, is exploiting the volatility by intensifying its recruitment efforts and trying to win civilian support under the banner of 'resisting Israel'. As part of this, it is disseminating narratives aimed at discrediting the Syrian government, portraying officials as having surrendered the country to foreign powers. The group's spokesperson, Abu Al-Qasim, said on 8 November that these foreign alliances only deepened violations and internal divisions.

According to information obtained by Al Majalla, Uli al-Baas is actively targeting former commanders and members of Al-Hadi Brigade, Brigade 313, and other factions that were previously aligned with Iranian militias and Hezbollah in southern Syria in the Assad era. The group is offering financial incentives to persuade them to return 'to lead the resistance against Israel'.

Several local sources in the south told Al Majalla that Uli al-Baas is particularly active in areas near the Syrian-Israeli border, in eastern Daraa, and in former strongholds of Al-Hadi Brigade and Brigade 313 in the Lajat region. The group is also trying to recruit former Palestinian members of Iranian-backed militias, believing that they may be more motivated to continue the struggle against Israel.

In response, the Syrian government—through its internal security wing—has enacted several changes in the south, appointing new officials to oversee the situation. These are individuals with prior knowledge of the activities, leadership structures, and personnel of Iranian militias in the region before the fall of al-Assad.  

Ongoing battle

Despite its limited operational capacity, largely due to ongoing Israeli interventions, the government is pressing ahead with efforts to dismantle Uli al-Baas. In November, authorities arrested one of its commanders, and investigations remain ongoing to uncover its plans and areas of influence. Authorities also arrested a commander affiliated with Lebanese Hezbollah in October in the town of Qarfa near Izraa in the Daraa countryside.

A handful of arrests is unlikely to dismantle the group, however, because its structure of IS-like cells means that it can adapt quickly and reposition. The security reality and wider complications in the south also limit the Syrian government's capacity to pursue the group and its followers.

Sweida remains critical, not least because it is a known refuge for those smuggling weapons and drugs, exploiting the tension between Sweida's factions and Damascus. Uli al-Baas can buy weapons from these dealers and, through them, secure a supply chain for its operations in the region.

Civilian sources from rural Quneitra and Daraa told Al Majalla that militias linked to Iran have no real support among local people, who believe they pose a major threat, in part because their activities and presence give Israel a pretext to target the south. This social rejection represents an opportunity for Damascus, yet regional complexities may mean that the government cannot capitalise on the mood.

By invoking the protection of the Druze and the fight against hostile groups in the south, Israel is in fact creating opportunities for those very groups to expand, reposition, and extend their influence through incursions and arrests. The destabilising impact of Israeli interventions threatens not just international efforts to stabilise Syria but Trump's plan to implement peace in the region, because Israel is giving these cells more room to operate. One wonders what Mr Trump had to say to Mr Netanyahu when they spoke.