A "reasonable" Israel-Syria agreement looks imminent

US envoy Tom Barrack has been shuffling between the two countries ahead of the UN General Assembly in a bid to get something concrete signed this week in New York

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi (left) watches as Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani (center) greets US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack after signing an agreement in Damascus on September 16, 2025.
AFP
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi (left) watches as Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani (center) greets US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack after signing an agreement in Damascus on September 16, 2025.

A "reasonable" Israel-Syria agreement looks imminent

Israel—engaged in a multi-front war trying to reshape the region—has been trampling on everything from human life to the rules of war, and international norms to shared values.

Netanyahu and his far-right ministers not only aim to rid Gaza of Hamas and other armed Palestinian groups but are en route to ethnically cleanse and depopulate Gaza by forcing as many of the approximately 2.3 million Palestinians as possible to leave.

Once they deem the region sufficiently “cleansed”, they will probably move to implement Donald Trump's project to turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East,” erecting modern buildings and holiday resorts on top of the destroyed homes of hundreds of thousands of people.

As for its intentions in Syria, Israel wants it to be weak and fragmented. Despite recent frictions between the two countries, they remain in dialogue, with the US playing the role of mediator and peacemaker.

But tensions can quickly escalate at any time. With Israel acting ever more recklessly, the risk of an accidental physical contact between Türkiye and Israel in Syria cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, the tepid response from the international community is emboldening Israel.

For his part, Netanyahu is trying to convince Israelis and the world that he is fighting a “radical Islamist leader who is an enemy of Israel and the Jews.” Meanwhile, President Erdoğan is positioning himself as a regional leader standing against extreme right-wing Zionists who are committing genocide against Palestinians and attempting to divide Syria.

 Ozan Kose/AFP
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and Syria's interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands during a joint press conference following their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, on 4 February 2025.

Heading for collision?

Türkiye has repeatedly stated that it is ready to provide Damascus with all the support it needs in the face of internal and external threats. And while Erdoğan has not said what that support would entail, the head of Turkish intelligence, İbrahim Kalın, reassured Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa of Ankara’s support in Damascus just a few days ago.

Israel—which now considers Türkiye at least as much of an enemy as Iran— has ramped up pressure by bombing locations in Syria where Ankara is thought to be establishing bases, as well as establishing relations with anti-Turkish groups. It is also trying to incite the US Congress against it.

But Israel may soon discover that Türkiye is very different from other countries it has confronted. It is a vast country with a similarly vast population, and is well advanced in the field of defence, boasting a large army with extensive combat experience. Furthermore, it is a NATO member, which should theoretically be a deterrent.

When Erdoğan meets Trump in Washington, he will be well placed to remind him that Netanyahu is putting the US in a very difficult position in the region

Consensus over governance style

Regarding the situation in Syria, all external and internal actors, including Türkiye, appear to agree that it can no longer be governed by a strong central system and that an administrative structure granting certain powers to local administrations could be a viable option. However, there are differences of opinion regarding the parameters and definition of this administrative structure.

The US, Syria, and Jordan recently met in Amman and signed a roadmap for establishing stability in Sweida. The three signatories have requested that the United Nations formally adopt the roadmap. For his part, Israeli-backed Syrian Druze leader Hikmat al-Hijri has rejected the agreement. Israel wants southern Syria disarmed and demilitarised, meaning that central government forces and their affiliates would not be present there, plus other demands.

Meanwhile, talks between the Syrian Democratic Forces and Damascus continue, but the SDF is not backing down from what it defines as "protecting its rights and not losing its gains."

Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP
SDF leader Mazloum Abdi (C) and Hamid Darbandi (C-R behind), envoy of Iraqi Kurdish politician Masoud Barzani, attend the pan-Kurdish "Unity and Consensus" conference in Qamishli in northeastern Syria on April 26, 2025.

For his part, US Special Representative for Syria, Ambassador Tom Barrack, has made some statements calling on the SDF to reach an agreement with Damascus. The SDF believes that despite these calls, the US will not abandon it, because it still wants it on its side, where the Islamic State (IS), Iran and other adversaries and potential adversaries are in play.

Multiple agreements

At the same time, Barrack continues his shuttle diplomacy to conclude agreements between Syria and Israel, as well as between Damascus and the groups in dispute with the Syrian government. The US hopes that these agreements will be signed during the UN General Assembly this week in New York. It will then present them as Trump's new contribution to world peace. Therefore, a security agreement between Israel and Syria could be signed in New York.

Meanwhile, Ilham Ahmed, Head of Foreign Relations for the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, will also travel to the US, where an agreement could possibly be signed between Damascus and the SDF.

President Donald Trump is set to host President Erdoğan at the White House on 25 September. Apart from a number of bilateral trade and military issues, Syria, Gaza and Israel will be discussed, and difficult conversations are expected. Erdoğan would be well-placed to remind Trump that Netanyahu is putting the US in a very difficult position and creating fertile ground for radicalism in the region, which ultimately makes Israel's future less—not more—secure.

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