Iran perceives the Kurdistan Region—an autonomous territory in northern Iraq—as a ‘functional adversary’ capable of delivering its objectives swiftly and at minimal cost.
Contrary to expectations, a wave of Iranian political and security pressure descended upon the region shortly after the end of the Israeli-Iranian war. Iranian media portrayed attacks on civilian sites in the area as strikes against ‘Israeli Mossad headquarters’, while forces aligned with Iran within Iraq’s Coordination Framework pressured the federal government to halt salary payments to public sector workers in Kurdistan.
This was accompanied by a series of targeted assaults on the region’s oilfields, whose intent and origin left little doubt. Simultaneously, pro-Iranian political and media platforms in Iraq launched a coordinated campaign of incitement, rejecting any potential federal agreement with Erbil concerning oil exports, public salaries, or financial arrangements. The most plausible motive behind these moves is a desire among Iran’s Iraqi allies to redeem themselves politically following Tehran’s perceived setback.
This escalation occurred despite the Kurdistan Region adopting a clearly neutral stance during the conflict. Kurdish leaders avoided rhetoric or actions antagonistic to Iran, even in relation to Tehran-backed forces such as the Popular Mobilisation Forces or the Coordination Framework. Their approach even earned commendation from Iranian officials.
Nevertheless, these gestures seem to hold little weight in the broader struggle between Iran’s allies and adversaries within Iraq. Pro-Iranian factions appear determined to obscure any impression of decline or defeat, while adversaries, including the Kurdistan Region, seek to capitalise on Tehran’s recent losses.
This has unfolded against a backdrop of four deeply contentious issues that have dominated and shaped the relationship between Iraq's central Shiite forces aligned with Iran and the Kurdistan Region since the end of the war against the Islamic State (IS) nearly a decade ago. In each case, these forces have prioritised Iranian interests and strategic aims over any shared national interest that might unite Baghdad and Erbil. They have consistently leveraged Iran's assertiveness and wide-reaching influence across Iraq.
