By asking ‘what next’, an ageing Turkish nationalist signals change

Since the liberation of southern Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah has spent billions trying to impose and establish Iranian interests on Lebanese reality, overriding the existence of the Lebanese state and subduing Lebanese society that has always been unwilling to buy into the austere vision of this Islamist 'Party of God'. 

It has had to buy loyalty, co-opt opinion leaders to promote its agenda, carry out political assassinations, stoke internal conflict at the risk of civil war, overwhelm Lebanon with an arsenal of weapons, participate in regional conflicts, paralyse the country's politics, and contribute to the destruction of Lebanon's economy, yet it has still failed to change much on a fundamental level. Today, it faces an existential crisis. What next?

Not just Hezbollah

Hamas is in a similar position. Its political extremism (which outbid the more grounded outlook and moderated objectives of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation), populist rhetoric and interventionist actions have only brought ruin and catastrophe to Palestinians in Gaza. What next?

Others that may soon be asking the same question include groups such as the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, the al-Assad regime in Syria, or its Iranian counterpart. Even Israel's far-right coalition knows it faces seething anger from many quarters once its wars come to an end. What is next for these actors, whose common denominator is that they have all tried and failed to achieve their goals? 

The prolonged state of conflict that has engulfed the region in recent months has laid bare political vulnerabilities and ideological emptiness. Those who tried to implement extreme political objectives have been exposed by war—the ultimate test of their ability to effect change on the ground. 

War has unmasked hidden or forgotten truths such as the need for central and effective state institutions, the need to compromise, the importance of avoiding isolation, and the need to come up with political solutions to seemingly unsolvable problems. 

For the dogmatists and ideologues across the Middle East, such truths are uncomfortable to hear, but if someone like Devlet Bahçeli can extend their hand to a sworn enemy, others can, too. For the region's extremists, he may even have heralded the end of an era. This is a time for pragmatists, for grown-ups, and for moving on.