The US returns to North Africa with an eye on Beijing and Moscow

This weakening has encouraged Washington to push for an end to the diplomatic deadlock and to prioritise economic and developmental issues over the rhetoric of the so-called 'Axis of Resistance', which has delivered neither development nor stability.

Diplomatic sources note that Boulos's visit added fresh momentum to US efforts. Boulos is credited with having previously helped secure a breakthrough in the Great Lakes region, brokering peace between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. In this context, researchers at the Paris-based Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) stated that Boulos's tour of North Africa came at the right time, with the region experiencing a strategic vacuum caused by Europe's withdrawal and the preoccupation of regional powers with their internal crises.

A half-century dispute

The Western Sahara conflict dates back to the Cold War and has exacted a significant and long-term economic, political, and social toll on the region.

Washington recognises that the protracted Algerian-Moroccan dispute harms the entire region, squandering opportunities for growth and prosperity, while serving Russia's interests as Algeria's principal arms supplier. Estimates indicate that Algeria raised its defence budget to around $25bn in 2025, continuing to rely in part on Russian weaponry, making it historically one of Moscow's largest customers.

Morocco, for its part, has expanded its defence ties with the US, signing arms deals worth billions of dollars. These include the modernisation of its fleet of F-16 Viper fighters, Apache helicopters, and various defensive missiles. Unofficial reports suggest possible deals involving F-35s, F-18s, or F-15s. Morocco also maintains partnerships with US defence giant Lockheed Martin, including maintenance centres and industrial projects in Casablanca.

While this arms race has raised the level of military technology, it has also increased the risk of confrontation between the two nations, diverting resources away from development in a region where the average per capita income remains between $5,000 and $7,000 a year. With security and stability, these levels could easily double.

In remarks to Algeria's Al-Watan newspaper, Boulos said the US recognises Morocco's sovereignty over its Southern Provinces and supports its proposal for "serious, credible, and realistic autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty as the only basis for a just and lasting resolution" to the Western Sahara conflict.

A move towards settlement?

This marked the first time in half a century that Algerian authorities had allowed the publication of an interview containing an explicit acknowledgement of Morocco's sovereignty over the area, raising questions about whether it signalled a move towards settlement or was merely coincidental.

In the same context, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated Trump's call for all parties to engage without delay in negotiations based on Morocco's autonomy proposal as the sole framework for a mutually acceptable solution.

At the same time, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune admitted that Algeria had spent vast sums on the Sahara issue, calling it "the wealth of Qarun", in reference to the heavy economic burden of supporting the Polisario Front. The Sahrawi nationalist liberation movement seeks independence for Western Sahara. Analysts interpreted Tebboune's statement as a signal that Algeria might seek economic compensation in exchange for political flexibility.

Meanwhile, Algerian opposition journalist Walid Kabir said "the military regime in Algeria can't afford to reject Trump's administration", especially as the US Congress considers a bill to designate the Polisario Front a terrorist organisation. This move, according to The Washington Post, is because of the movement's military ties with Iran, Hezbollah, and the Syrian regime.

Diplomatic sources in Paris added that Algeria, mired in a worsening dispute with France over the imprisonment of Algerian-French writer Boualem Sansal for criticising the government, can't afford to ignore Washington's request. Especially now that relations with Moscow have cooled following the deployment of Russia's Wagner Group in neighbouring Mali.

A hand extended for peace

Boulos's moves between Paris and Algiers coincided with King Mohammed VI's speech marking the 26th anniversary of his accession to the Moroccan throne. In that speech, he called for a "frank and responsible dialogue with Algeria," stressing his country's keenness to foster good relations with the Algerian people and to reach a consensual settlement of the Sahara dispute that preserves the dignity of all parties.

Analysts believe the king's speech was primarily aimed at the US administration, underscoring Morocco's willingness to reach a settlement within the spirit of North African brotherhood. Such a settlement would be based on "no victor and no vanquished", while emphasising the importance of the Arab Maghreb Union as a framework for economic integration and regional development.

The king has repeatedly extended the hand of cooperation to Algeria in the interest of future generations, calling for collaboration and integration to strengthen North Africa's place in the new global order. Studies by the World Bank and regional bodies suggest that the Maghreb (North African) states could reap vast economic gains if the Sahara dispute were resolved, with some optimistic forecasts likening its potential to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) experience within just five years.

The Arab Maghreb Union, founded in Marrakesh in 1989 and comprising Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, and Mauritania, has a combined population of around 120 million and a GDP of just over half a trillion dollars. By contrast, ASEAN—established in Bangkok with five countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines), later joined by Brunei (1984), Vietnam (1995), Laos and Myanmar (1997) and Cambodia (2004)—now encompasses 10 members with a population exceeding 680 million and a GDP of $3.6tn (2024), making it the world's fifth largest economic bloc, with a middle class surpassing 400 million consumers.

Trade in the rhythm of interests

The US State Department has stated that tariffs, trade sanctions, and investment pledges have become strategic tools in shaping international relations and managing external crises—either by pressuring uncooperative governments or by granting trade incentives to cooperative ones.

In this context, the five Maghreb states are seeking to win over Trump's administration and secure greater economic, political, and military support. However, Washington has made it clear that the scale of its support will depend on how closely these states align with US policy.

On 7 August, the US imposed 30% tariffs on Algeria and Libya, and 25% on Tunisia. These are among the highest worldwide, nearly double the 15% applied to EU states and equivalent to tariffs imposed on China (30%). Although there are exemptions in some sectors, energy isn't always excluded, leaving open the possibility of US pressure on Europe to reduce reliance on North African gas if Algeria deepens its military and political cooperation with Russia, China, or Iran.

US imports from Algeria amounted to $1.12bn in the first half of the year (mostly energy), with total trade hitting $1.67bn and a US trade deficit of $570mn. Washington views this deficit as problematic, particularly when a portion of the proceeds is used to purchase arms from Russia and China.

During the first half of 2025, trade with Libya reached $957mn, with a US trade deficit of $175mn. Notably, Boulos oversaw the signing of an investment deal between Libya's National Oil Corporation and US firm Hill International aimed at boosting gas production, particularly along the Mediterranean coast, where Turkish, Greek and Maltese ambitions intersect. Washington insists on Libya's territorial integrity and rejects any partition or the creation of new entities, emphasising that it will recognise only legitimate governments, mirroring its approach elsewhere in the Middle East.

Morocco's preferential treatment 

Morocco has enjoyed preferential treatment under its 2006 free trade agreement with the US, which abolished tariffs on most goods exchanged. Figures show that Rabat is Washington's largest trade partner in the Maghreb, with trade exceeding $3.76bn in the first half of the year—half of all US trade with North Africa ($7.23bn).

Morocco is also the region's biggest consumer of US goods, despite its geographical proximity to the EU, with which its trade reached $77bn last year. Royal Air Maroc is negotiating the expansion of its fleet with new Boeing aircraft, with talk of a deal for 150 planes.

Relations between Washington and Tunis, by contrast, have cooled since President Kais Saied's election. The US has criticised Tunisia's handling of sub-Saharan migrants and its stance towards Jewish communities that had previously been warmly welcomed. Trade between the two countries stood at $837mn up to June, including $281mn in US exports against $556mn in Tunisian exports—mainly olive oil—leaving Washington with a deficit of $274.6mn. The US has also opposed International Monetary Fund loans to the Tunisian government, exacerbating its financial difficulties and liquidity shortages.

A fragmented Maghreb Union

Analysts argue that Washington doesn't view the Maghreb through a single lens. However, given its geopolitical sensitivity, it can't ignore the region. US decision-makers prefer to use trade and economic relations as an entry point to unlock diplomatic stalemate, with the strategic objective of containing Chinese and Russian influence following Europe's retreat.

Washington remains wary of Moscow and Beijing's advance into the western Mediterranean, the South Atlantic, and the Sahel. Russia is seeking an alternative military base after the collapse of the Syrian regime in late 2024, while China expands its Belt and Road Initiative through infrastructure investments and port projects. In Washington's view, regional conflicts open the door to political and economic leverage by these rivals, providing fuel for further instability.

Meanwhile, the US fears that ongoing unrest in the landlocked Sahel—following France's military withdrawal and the arrival of Wagner forces—will further fuel terrorism, separatism, organised crime, irregular migration, and the trafficking of weapons and drugs. All these are security priorities for the US.