Trump's patience with Putin appears to be wearing thin

Not so long ago, Trump was singing Putin's praises, but lately he seems increasingly aggravated with the Russian leader for failing to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine

Trump's patience with Putin appears to be wearing thin

Donald Trump has given his clearest signal yet that he is determined to end the war in Ukraine, even if it means imposing fresh sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin to sign a lasting peace deal. Asked in the Oval Office this week if he thought the Russian president wanted to end the war, Mr Trump said: “I can’t tell you that, but I’ll let you know in about two weeks.”

Trump has previously warned that the White House could impose a fresh round of secondary sanctions against Russia if the Kremlin fails to engage seriously in peace talks, although no action has yet been taken.

Even so, discussions are reportedly underway in Washington to impose secondary sanctions against countries that continue to trade with Russia, with the measures designed to target Russian exports of gas, oil, and raw materials. Such a move could inflict serious damage on the Russian economy, which is already suffering from the effects of falling oil prices, and would severely impact Putin’s ability to maintain Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine.

A text currently being discussed by prominent US Senators proposes imposing a tariff of “not less” than 500% on any country that "knowingly sells, supplies, transfers, or purchases oil, uranium, natural gas, petroleum products, or petrochemical products that originated in the Russian Federation." In other words, any nation that consumes Russian energy.

The legislation is believed to be aimed at disrupting China’s so-called “no-limits” alliance with Moscow, and would "hold China accountable for propping up Putin's war machine by buying cheap Russian oil," according to the text of the proposed measures being jointly promoted by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat from Connecticut.

While Trump remains ambivalent about imposing punitive measures against Russia if it continues the war in Ukraine, any move to impose fresh sanctions would represent a significant change in the American leader’s attitude to Putin.

In his various dealings with the Russian leader in recent months, Trump has indicated that his strong personal relationship with Putin would result in the two leaders negotiating an end to the conflict, which began when Russia launched its military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Russia has repeatedly stated that a final settlement on Ukraine is only possible if the "root causes" of the conflict are addressed

Shifting rhetoric

Trump has variously described Putin as being a "genius" and being "smart" and insisted that the only realistic way to end the conflict in Ukraine was for him to meet face-to-face with the Russian leader.

"Nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together," Trump declared earlier this month.

Since then, Trump has shifted his position, suggesting that a peace deal can only be negotiated between Russia and Ukraine, and not by the American and Russian leaders.

And, following his most recent two-hour phone call with Putin over the weekend, there are clear signs that Trump is starting to lose patience with his Russian counterpart, claiming that Putin might be "tapping" him along to buy more time for Russian forces to gain the advantage on the Ukrainian battlefield. Trump was particularly incensed that, at the same time that he was trying to broker a ceasefire deal, the Russians launched their largest aerial assault on Ukraine since the start of the war, killing 13 people and injuring dozens more.

"I've always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him," the US president wrote on Truth Social on Sunday. "He has gone absolutely CRAZY! I've always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that's proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!"

In a subsequent briefing to European leaders, US officials reported that they believed Putin had little interest in negotiating a peace deal because he believed he was winning the war in Ukraine. Moscow, meanwhile, responded to Trump's outburst by accusing the American leader of suffering from "emotional overload".

There is now a very real prospect, though, that Trump is finally losing patience with Putin, and may be tempted to take action against Russia. Asked by reporters whether he believed Putin was serious about engaging in peace talks, Trump replied, "We'll find out whether or not he's tapping us along or not and if he is, we'll respond a little bit differently but it will take about a week and a half to two weeks."

Mr Trump added that he was "very disappointed" by recent missile and drone attacks by Russia. "When I see rockets being shot into cities, that's no good. We aren't going to allow it." The US president said he was considering imposing new sanctions on Russia, although he stated that he did not want to do so if he believed a deal was imminent.  

Whether Trump goes ahead with his threat to impose more crippling sanctions against Moscow will depend to a large extent on the outcome of talks set to take place in Istanbul

Hitting the pause button

But on Wednesday, he said he's holding off on new sanctions against Russia in order to preserve the chance for a deal with President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.

"If I think I'm close to getting a deal, I don't want to screw it up by doing that," Trump said Wednesday at the White House. "Let me tell you, I'm a lot tougher than the people you're talking about."

It followed Russia's proposal for new direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Monday. Kyiv stated that it was considering the proposal but wanted Moscow to outline a ceasefire first. 

As part of its peace proposals, Russia is insisting on legally binding mechanisms to guarantee that the Ukraine conflict will not resume. The Russian foreign ministry said that Kyiv was aware of Moscow's position that a final settlement was possible only if the "root causes" of the conflict are addressed, the state-run TASS agency reported.

Moscow has repeatedly called for the "root causes" of the war to be addressed before any peace deal is reached. It is shorthand for preventing Ukraine from joining NATO and forcing it to become a neutral country.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, confirmed the talks would be a continuation of negotiations which took place on 16 May in the same location.

"In Istanbul, it was agreed that Moscow and Kyiv would prepare documents setting out the positions of each side to reach a sustainable resolution," Lavrov said. "The Russian side, as agreed, promptly drafted a corresponding memorandum, which lays out our position on all aspects of reliably overcoming the root causes of the crisis."

Kyiv said it was considering the proposal for talks in Istanbul but said it wanted to see Russia's outline of a ceasefire first. Whether Trump goes ahead with his threat to impose crippling sanctions against Moscow will depend to a large extent on the outcome of these talks, and whether Trump concludes that Putin is simply "tapping us along".

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