Will Trump's 'final' push for Ukraine ceasefire pay off?

As a senior Ukrainian official commented after details of Trump's seven-point peace proposal were made public, from Ukraine's perspective, the balance of the deal was weighted very heavily in Moscow's favour.

"The proposal says very clearly what tangible gains Russia gets, but only vaguely and generally says what Ukraine is going to get."

Recognising Russia's control

Under the terms of the deal, which were drawn up after Witkoff spent four hours in talks with Putin last week, the US would agree to de jure recognition of Russian control over Crimea as well as acknowledging de facto recognition of the large swathes of territory Russian forces have taken in eastern Ukraine during the past decade.

Washington has also reassured Moscow that Ukraine will not be allowed to pursue its quest for NATO membership, although it could seek to acquire membership of the European Union. In return for accepting these terms, Washington would agree to the lifting of sanctions on Russia and would be prepared to undertake enhanced economic cooperation with the US in areas such as energy.

By contrast, the terms on offer to Ukraine are rather meagre by comparison, with Russia being required to return the small area of the Kharkiv region that is currently occupied by Russian forces. The US also agrees to provide Kyiv with a "robust security guarantee" that it will be protected against any future acts of Russian aggression, although there is no mention of any US military commitment. There is also a vague commitment to providing compensation and assistance for rebuilding Ukraine, without providing details about how such a programme would be financed.

Not surprisingly, Zelenskyy has been deeply unimpressed by the peace terms on offer, warning Washington that Ukraine would never recognise Crimea as being part of Russia.

"Ukraine does not legally recognise the occupation of Crimea," he said. "There's nothing to talk about. This is against our constitution."

Zelenksyy's obstinacy

Zelenksyy's obstinacy on this key issue prompted yet another rebuke from Trump, who has consistently blamed the Ukrainian leader for being the main obstacle to securing a peace deal in Ukraine. Having initially boasted that he would end the Ukraine conflict within "24 hours" of taking office, Trump has become increasingly frustrated by the lack of progress his efforts have achieved, identifying the Ukrainian leader as the main stumbling block.

Responding to Zelenskyy's latest comments, Trump lashed out at Zelenskyy, accusing the Ukrainian leader of "harming" the negotiations and making "inflammatory" comments after the Ukrainian president said that Kyiv would not accept Russian sovereignty over Crimea. Trump said Ukraine was in a dire ­situation with "no cards to play".

Trump's hopes of securing a peace deal in Ukraine before he reaches the 100th day of his presidency next Tuesday were further undermined after Russia launched a massive air strike against Kyiv on Thursday morning, in which at least nine people were killed and more than 60 wounded, according to Ukraine's state emergency service. In what amounted to one of the deadliest strikes on the capital in the three-year war, five districts suffered damage and 42 people were hospitalised, including six children.

Despite the continuing hostilities in Ukraine, Trump remains confident that a deal can still be struck, irrespective of the concerns raised by Zelenskyy. Addressing reporters at the White House, Trump claimed that an agreement had been reached with Russia and Ukraine, and hinted that he could meet soon with Putin, suggesting that Zelenskyy had been harder to deal with than the Russian leader.

With Witkoff due to fly to Moscow for another round of talks with Putin, the future of Trump's peace plan will continue to hang in the balance until a proposal is forthcoming that is acceptable to both sides.