Can Iraq escape Iran’s shadow?

Tehran's grip over Baghdad has undoubtedly loosened, but whether or not this will translate into a complete realignment, as what took place in Syria, remains unclear

Can Iraq escape Iran’s shadow?

The conflict that erupted in the region over the past two years—between Israel on one side and Iran and its proxies on the other—has been telling. Despite decades of preparation, Iran and its proxies not only proved startingly ineffectual but were dealt a series of crippling blows.

Hezbollah's capabilities in Lebanon have been largely decimated, while in neighbouring Syria, the Assad regime collapsed. In Yemen, Houthi rocket launches into Israel were largely symbolic and in Gaza, Hamas remains trapped in a bloody stalemate as Israel’s war on the enclave has tormented the civilian population.

But perhaps the most overlooked aspect of Tehran’s crumbling ‘axis of resistance’ was the fact that Iraq’s pro-Iranian militias were conspicuously inactive, not only during Israel's war on Gaza, but also throughout the '12-day War' between Israel and Iran. As missiles and drones flew over militia bases and command centres to strike Iran, Baghdad's support for its nominal ally was largely confined to a flurry of press statements, social media posturing, and empty declarations. This conspicuous absence raises a pivotal question: is Iraq finally slipping free from Tehran's grip?

Al Majalla's August cover story, Changing Baghdad’s locks: US pressure key to breaking Iran’s grip tackles this subject. While we previously covered the decline of Iran’s regional influence following its heightened confrontation with Israel and the US in the past two years, this issue zooms in on Iraq and the immense potential that could come if it successfully breaks away from Tehran’s sphere of influence and joins the new emerging Middle East order.

If Baghdad successfully breaks away from Tehran's sphere of influence and joins the new emerging Middle East order, immense potential could follow

Ripe moment

A month after the '12-day War' between Iran and Israel, Michael Knights—one of Washington's top Iraq analysts— opined: "This is a moment of great opportunity for expanding US influence in Iraq, protecting US personnel and businesses there, and reducing Iran's malign influence more permanently."

Tehran's grip over Baghdad has undoubtedly loosened, particularly when it comes to security matters, but whether or not this will translate into a complete realignment, as what took place in Syria, remains unclear.

The militias' passive posture was telling. Despite their arsenal and Iranian backing, they did not launch rockets at Israel, unlike the Houthis, nor toward US strategic assets in Iraq or elsewhere. Although they possess the military capabilities to do so, they made a strategic decision to stay on the sidelines due to shifting domestic politics and an increasingly sophisticated US pressure campaign.

Although US troop presence in Iraq is minimal, it has successfully implemented a pressure campaign in the country aimed at reducing Iran's influence. This includes sanctions aimed at dismantling oil-smuggling networks that fund proxy groups, financial restrictions on arms procurement and surgical strikes eliminating senior militia commanders. At the same time, the US has methodically weakened Tehran's fifth column within Iraq's institutions, purging key figures closely aligned to Iran.

Iraqi militias made a strategic decision to stay on the sidelines during the '12-day War' due to an increasingly sophisticated US pressure campaign

Growing assertiveness

These developments—unimaginable during Iran's heyday of dominance— can be interpreted differently. Some attribute this to Tehran's weakened regional influence, especially after Israel and the US have dealt it several heavy blows in the past few years. Others point to Baghdad's growing assertiveness, desire to chart an independent foreign policy, and restore the state's monopoly on force by reining in armed factions. After seeing the large-scale destruction Israel inflicted on Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, Iraq was keen not to become another collateral damage casualty in Iran's regional wars.

While Iran's influence networks are still standing, they have been degraded, and Tehran's influence to mobilise them has been clearly weakened. For its part, Washington believes the moment is ripe to dial up pressure on Iraq's pro-Iranian factions. Recent clashes between federal forces and Kata'ib Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed linchpin of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, take on new significance in this context, as do the PMF's drone strikes on Erbil's airport and Kurdish oil facilities.

The path forward remains fraught. Without a coherent American strategy to effectively weaken Iran's grip on Iraq, disentangle armed groups from governance, and redefine the rules of engagement, Baghdad will likely get stuck in limbo. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani's recent interview with the Associated Press underscored the complexities of Iraqi politics. He parroted the militias' justification for their arms while proposing year-end talks to renegotiate security ties with Washington, even as he dangled potential energy and technology investments at the Trump administration.

Against this backdrop, Iraqis will be voting in parliamentary elections in November. Washington sees this as an opportunity to redraw Iraq's political architecture—much like it has done or is trying to do in Syria and Lebanon. The vote will be a clear indicator of just how weakened Iran's grip on Iraq has become and whether Baghdad's moves towards autonomy mark the beginning of true independence or are just fleeting detour in Iran's longstanding pursuit of regional hegemony.

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