Beyond Fordow

A US strike on Iran’s crown jewel nuclear facility won't have the desired impact that some hope for and risks dragging the US into a war that he vowed his supporters he would ‘never start'

Beyond Fordow

The argument that the war between Iran and Israel comes down to the fate of Fordow is lazy and even misleading. Let’s assume for a moment that US President Donald Trump decides to send US aerial assets to take out the nuclear site that is buried beneath the ground, then what? What does the United States do after that? And how does Iran respond?

Given Trump’s deep apprehension about any kind of open-ended involvement in the Middle East (for all the right reasons), he will most likely call it a day, send the bombers back home, and declare victory. But would that really solve the problem? I doubt it.

If attacked, Iran has vowed to retaliate against US forces and personnel in the region, which would be a lot easier for it to do given the close geographical proximity of US bases in the Gulf (a big reason why Iran has been less effective in its strikes against Israel is distance, in addition to its lack of a modern air force).

If the Iranians start shooting, which they most definitely will, then the United States will be forced to respond with devastating force and probably go for the kill by decapitating the leadership in Tehran, and as Trump himself threatened lately, by killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

In such a shootout, American casualties will be inevitable (though probably reduced because US Central Command has been on high alert and Trump ordered the evacuation of a large number of US personnel from the region), but nothing compared to what Iran will suffer.

If anyone thinks Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the last Shah of Iran, will be welcomed by Iranians in the event of a regime change, colour me sceptical

Lessons from history

Let's game out this direct US-Iran war scenario. Would it be in the American interest to have a political and most likely security vacuum in Iran, a nation of 90-plus million people with multiple ethnicities, if the government is toppled? The honest answer is no, because we've seen what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan.

And if you think Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the last Shah of Iran and the former crown prince, is the answer, colour me sceptical. We have no clue how popular Pahlavi is, and one would think that the Iranian people deserve a whole lot better than a recycled past.

Pahlavi is saying all the right things and presenting himself as a saviour, but this somehow feels like Ahmad Chalabi all over again, the Iraqi politician who, from exile, helped persuade the United States to invade Iraq in 2003 and then failed to gain power as his country was ravaged by sectarian violence.

There is a reason why the United States fell short of toppling Saddam Hussein after Desert Storm in 1990-91, a lesson George W. Bush clearly ignored 22 years later. Washington may be contemplating a similar moment and decision today: if and when Trump destroys Fordow, will he have to go all the way and create an opportunity for political reengineering in Iran?

If Trump bombs Fordow but doesn't eliminate the leadership in Iran, Tehran will likely resume its nuclear activities and expansionist policies across the region

High risk of backfiring

Let's be crystal clear: nobody is talking about the US sending thousands of troops to Iran to topple the Iranian leadership and replace it with a more US-friendly one. That is out of the question. But the reality is that if Trump goes for decapitation, something has to replace it, regardless of whether the US gets involved or not.

The Iranian people are caught between a rock and a hard place: if Trump bombs but doesn't eliminate the leadership in Tehran, Iranians are left with probably a more repressive government that will find a way, maybe years from now, to resume its nuclear activities and expansionist policies across the region. So, all Trump would do is buy time.

If Trump bombs, kills the Iranian leadership, but does not get involved at all in the day after (and I am not sure how, to be honest), Iranians will have to rebuild a country that has no governance and economic infrastructure that is independent from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. To reconstruct Iran on the basis of new political principles would mean destroying Wilayat Al Faqih, the IRGC, and their supporters, which won't be bloodless.

As always in war situations, it's innocent people who suffer the most. The Iranian people are no exception in this current predicament. This is way beyond Fordow. 

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