A historic opportunity in Lebanon awaits President Donald Trump, who will begin serving his second term later this month. Known for his bold foreign policy ideas, this one should be right up his alley—consistent with his America-first agenda.
Here it is: the Trump administration would commit to seriously upgrading the capabilities of the Lebanese army—which has proven to be one of the best returns on investment for the US military in the region—on the condition that Lebanon’s political class elects a reformist president who will champion the country’s sovereignty and independence, and Hezbollah hands over its weapons to the Lebanese army, making the latter the sole, legitimate military force in the country.
I fully understand that this sounds like a non-starter. Like many, I doubt that Hezbollah will agree to disarm and integrate its units into the Lebanese army. Neither will Iran, Hezbollah’s patron, for that matter. But that is to be expected.
The intent behind this US proposal is to equip Lebanese reformists with a powerful argument for security and stability— one they can use in their political struggle with Hezbollah. The idea is to emphasise and communicate that Hezbollah is the only thing standing in the way of more hopeful Lebanese politics and a revamped Lebanese army that can defend the country from all aggression.
But the Trump administration has to deliver the goods for this to work. It can’t just be business as usual. It must put an offer on the table that would significantly enhance the capabilities of the Lebanese army so that it can perform not just its current border security mission in the south but also credibly defend Lebanon from all foreign and domestic threats.
Over the past two decades, the United States has helped turn the Lebanese army into a more effective fighting force, providing it with equipment worth more than $3bn, training assistance, and a range of advisory services.
But the assistance package I have in mind here would be dramatically different. It would include capabilities that would emphasise air defence and border security. The former would be especially important as it has been an area of neglect by Washington for decades due to the state of conflict between Lebanon and Israel.
With the promise of a seriously upgraded Lebanese army that can competently perform its national defence duties, Lebanese reformists will have plenty of ammunition to use against Hezbollah and its failed model of resistance, which has brought nothing but ruin to Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s likely rejection of this US offer won’t be so easy. After all, Hezbollah today is hardly in command as it used to be. It’s not dead, but it’s a deeply wounded organisation that is in the middle of a delicate transition, even if it won’t admit it. So, this is the perfect time to apply more pressure on it.
Israel has dealt Hezbollah a very heavy blow, one the group has never suffered in its 43 years of conflict with the Jewish state. Israel has virtually decapitated the group, including its top and iconic leader, Hassan Nasrallah. How Hezbollah survives Nasrallah is an enormous question within the group and the Lebanese Shiite community.
Israel also has decimated Hezbollah’s military capabilities. The threat of Hezbollah wreaking havoc on Israeli cities and strategic sites during a confrontation turned out to be bluster. The party was getting pummeled almost daily by Israel for more than a year—in the south, in the Bekaa, in its headquarters in southern Beirut—and all it could do was respond with rather ineffective salvos of rockets and missiles.
To be sure, Hezbollah caused tens of thousands of Israeli residents in the north to flee their homes—which put a lot of pressure on the Israeli government—but that’s a relatively low bar in what seemed like an existential fight with Israel. It’s not unreasonable to argue that the Israeli military has finally dispelled the myth of the all-mighty Hezbollah.
Israel also has penetrated Hezbollah like never before. This was unthinkable until several months ago. Hezbollah was known to be a secretive and tight-knit organisation whose members rarely defect, make grave intelligence mistakes, or rat on their own. The last few months have shown that it is now anything but.
Israeli ingenuity, which led to thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to Hezbollah members blowing up, played a huge role, but there was something rotten within the organisation and/or its support base that provided Israel with precious opportunities to spy.
How Israel was able to locate Nasrallah, along with senior military personnel, suggests a treasure of intelligence that was collected through not just signals and other technologies but also human agents. To say that Hezbollah feels vulnerable today because it is surrounded by more enemies than ever would be a gross understatement. How—or whether—Hezbollah will be able to rebuild its communications system is vastly unclear. This is big because if you can’t communicate, you can’t fight, at least effectively.
Then there’s the collapse of the Assad regime, which was a major lifeline for Hezbollah. With al-Assad gone and anti-Hezbollah forces in power in Damascus, the group cannot rely on Syria to serve as a conduit for its arms. This is also big because without supplies, you can’t fight for long.
