Even when the UAE and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords with Israel in 2020, they deliberately underemphasised security cooperation to avoid alienating or provoking Iran. Four years have passed since the signing of those Arab-Israeli normalisation deals, and we have yet to hear of any joint security initiative between its members.
Even to this day, when Gulf Arab leaders meet with their US counterparts in Washington or the region, the discussions centre on economics, technological innovation, and investments. There is barely any talk of joint security. Gulf leaders also continue to refuse to let the US military launch attacks against Iran's regional allies—be it the Houthis in Yemen or the militias in Iraq—from their own territories.
None of this suggests that the Arab partners suddenly trust Iran or do not worry about their security. But it means that whatever opportunity Iran's current relative weakness presents, the Arab partners have a ceiling in terms of security cooperation with Washington and Israel. A wounded Iran, they correctly assess, is still a dangerous Iran.
US position
In his statements on Iran, US President Donald Trump seems to have prioritised the issue of reaching a nuclear settlement. His general preference, like that of the Arab partners, is to stop all wars in the Middle East and promote economic development.
Although Trump did not say much on Iran's regional conduct, and his strategy for Iran has yet to mature, it seems clear he is more interested in focusing on the nuclear issue, which appears to be moving quickly. The gist of his approach towards Tehran is likely to be fairly simple: reach a deal or risk getting bombed, either by the United States or jointly with Israel, which already has its finger on the trigger.
Read more: Unpacking Trump's Iran ultimatum
However, this doesn't mean that Trump will totally ignore Iran's destabilising activities in the region. In his first term, he ordered the killing of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in January 2020. It was a debilitating blow to Iran's military power in the region. Soleimani was the glue that kept Tehran's regional network together, and the Iranians have had a very hard time finding a capable replacement. Trump might view such aggressive US tactics against Iran as a means to compel Tehran to make concessions on its nuclear programme.
Room for more cooperation
But beyond the general dispositions of Trump and the Arab partners, there is no question that there is plenty of room for further security cooperation. Indeed, there is no clash or major disagreement on Iran between the two sides. Each will pursue its national interest, as always, but it would be foolish not to take advantage of this historic moment in the region—one where Iran is not on the ascendancy and wreaking havoc across the region but on the decline.
The ultimate form of security cooperation is a scenario whereby Trump extends a formal defence pact to Saudi Arabia—and possibly other Arab partners—either as a result of a bilateral negotiation or a multilateral one that includes Israel (the US idea presented so far is that a Saudi-Israeli normalisation would earn the Palestinians a path towards an independent state and the Saudis a formal defence guarantee from Washington).
Should that come to pass, it could considerably influence how Saudi Arabia (and again, possibly others) decides to treat its cooperation with the United States on regional security. With a robust US defence pact, Riyadh could accept greater risk than before, knowing that if a conflict with Iran erupts or if Iran attacks the kingdom again as it did in September 2019, the United States will be legally obligated to intervene militarily on its behalf.
Under such a framework and the US security umbrella, various forms of security cooperation between the two countries could be entertained and instituted, especially on integrated air and missile defence, which could benefit the whole region.
Short of a US defence pact, the Arab partners will continue to shy away from any anti-Iran coalition and focus instead on upgrading their own defences by lobbying Trump for equipment that has been off the table for years, including fifth-generation aircraft, communications systems, autonomous weapons, and various munitions.
