Trump's reported approval of Iran strikes could set the region ablaze

With neither side appearing to be in the mood to compromise, all the indications suggest the current Israel-Iran war could expand into the biggest conflict the Middle East has witnessed in many years

Trump's reported approval of Iran strikes could set the region ablaze

The revelation that US President Donald Trump has given his private authorisation for the US military to attack Iran raises the alarming prospect of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran to an entirely new, and potentially disastrous, level.

Trump has spent the past few months of his presidency investing a great deal of political capital in trying to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue, with US officials participating in several rounds of talks in Oman.

And while Trump has indicated on numerous occasions that his preference is for a negotiated deal to resolve, once and for all, the long-running dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme, he has also made it clear that he has no intention of allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.

Trump’s latest declaration on the subject was made earlier this week when he told reporters accompanying him on Air Force One on the return journey from the G7 summit in Canada, "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. It's very simple — you don't have to go too deep into it. They just can't have a nuclear weapon."

Personal approval

If, as media reports in the US have suggested, Trump has now given his personal approval for the US military to draw up plans for attacking Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, it is because the US leader firmly believes that, without such action, Iran will be able to fulfil its long-held ambition of developing nuclear weapons.

The catalyst for the eruption of hostilities between Israel and Iran was the findings of a new report commissioned by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN-sponsored body responsible for monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities, which concluded that Tehran had produced sufficient quantities of enriched uranium to produce at least ten nuclear warheads.

Israel subsequently launched a series of air strikes against Iran after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Tehran was trying to produce its first nuclear warhead.

Netanyahu claims Iran is trying to produce its first nuclear warhead, but this has been disputed by intelligence agencies

Despite this claim being disputed by intelligence agencies in the US and Europe, Israel warplanes have targeted key elements in Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including its main uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.

But while the Israeli military has demonstrated its ability to target and destroy most of Iran's key nuclear and military sites, it is not clear whether it has sufficient firepower to take out one of Iran's most heavily protected nuclear facilities, the underground Fordo complex that has been constructed deep within a mountain range.

Constructed clandestinely until its existence was finally revealed by Western intelligence agencies in 2009, the site, located around 60 miles south of the capital Tehran in a mountainous region close to the holy city of Qom, is used for uranium enrichment. Western intelligence believes that if Iran does attempt to assemble a nuclear warhead, this would be the likely construction site.

Fordo in focus

While Israel may have achieved dominance over Iran's skies during the first week of the conflict, questions remain about whether it has the firepower to take out the Fordo nuclear facility, which is believed to be deeper underground than the Channel Tunnel connecting the UK and France.

Only the US military is thought to have a bomb that might be large enough to destroy Fordo, the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOD), the only munition believed to be capable of destroying the facility.

Reports, therefore, that Trump is giving serious consideration to involving the US in Israel's military offensive against Iran are based on the fact that the only sure way to guarantee Iran is denied the option of producing nuclear warheads is to use Washington's superior military firepower to take out the Fordo facility.

As is often the case with Trump, significant doubts persist regarding his true intentions. Despite reports surfacing that the White House had given its approval to a plan to attack Iran, Trump himself insisted that he still had not made a final decision.

"I have ideas on what to do, but I haven't made a final decision – I like to make the final decision one second before it's due."  

Trump's strategyoffering peace talks on the one hand, and raising the prospect of US military action on the otheris fraught with risk

Earlier, Trump had indicated that his preference remained to conclude a negotiated settlement to resolve the crisis, having initiated talks between Washington and Tehran after he wrote a personal letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier this year, offering to open direct negotiations. At the time, Trump stated that he had set a 60-day deadline for the negotiations to be completed, a deadline that expired earlier this month.

In a brief telephone interview with CNN after the deadline expired, Trump said, "Iran should have listened to me when I said — you know, I gave them, I don't know if you know but I gave them a 60-day warning."

"They should now come to the table to make a deal before it's too late. It will be too late for them. You know, the people I was dealing with are dead, the hardliners," which was taken to be a reference to the senior military commanders and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who were killed by Israeli air strikes.

Risky strategy

Trump's strategy, offering peace talks on the one hand, and raising the prospect of US military action on the other, is nonetheless fraught with risk, not least because Khamenei, who bluntly spurned Trump's offer of talks, has warned that the US would suffer "irreparable damage" if it engages in military action against Iran.

"The Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage," Khamenei said in a televised address. "The US entering this matter (war) is 100% to its own detriment. The damage it will suffer will be far greater than any harm that Iran may encounter."

With neither side appearing to be in the mood to compromise, all the indications suggest the current Israel-Iran war could expand into the biggest conflict the Middle East has witnessed in many years

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